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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm not sure I buy the low totals talk along i95 or even a bit west of there . Mby is a little more in question . I'm thinking 2-3" here .

I suspect the guidance may be under playing the effects of the moisture convergence across our area as the system approaches to our south.  That easterly fetch banking against the boundary and some orographic enhancement and we could get significant rain even out here.  Big wind on the other hand is most likely staying well to our east. 

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The eastern component thing was an incorrect assessment. Intensifying also and that helps thwart east moves so it will skim the coastline before finally being forced inland  

 

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34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. It was a wobble. 

recon_AF305-2509A-ISAIAS.png

Thanks, sincerely, for your input here!  So glad you still grace our tropical threads with your valuable insight!

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I really appreciate your posts. I scan the thread in hopes of stumbling onto more of these nuggets of brilliant insight!  Keep up the good work. 

Them taking their depresso  meds or going to bed would be pleasing  to  us.

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3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Them taking their depresso  meds or going to bed would be pleasing  to  us.

On this we are in agreement! 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks, sincerely, for your input here!  So glad you still grace our tropical threads with your valuable insight!

Once you weed through the rest, yes

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Yikes

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

NWS Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Isaias re-intensified to a 
hurricane despite a less than impressive appearance in satellite 
imagery.  The aircraft reported 117 kt winds at 700 mb to the 
east of the center, but these were not mixed to the surface by 
the weak convection in that area, as the maximum SFMR winds were 75 
kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.

The hurricane is moving 020/19, and a faster forward speed is 
expected as the system moves farther into the mid-latitude 
southwesterly flow.  This should bring the center onshore in 
southern North Carolina shortly, followed by a track through the 
mid-Atlantic and western New England states Tuesday and Tuesday 
night and into southeastern Canada early Wednesday.

Interaction with a strong jet stream suggests that Isaias should 
weaken more slowly than normal as it moves through the eastern 
United States, and this should produce very strong wind gusts along 
the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 
24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the
Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed
by a larger extratropical low over Canada in about 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including
portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the southern portion of 
the hurricane Warning area and should spread northward through 
tonight and early tomorrow morning.

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later 
tonight and on Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power 
outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across 
New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-
responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 33.8N  78.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 37.0N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/0000Z 42.0N  73.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1200Z 46.8N  70.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0000Z 50.8N  68.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  06/1200Z 52.9N  66.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Once you weed through the rest, yes

Good to know some get as illogically bent about regular water as they do the frozen varieties. 

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Desperately need a summer reaper for those not taking their meds. I know WxWatcher007  doesn't want to do tropical reapings. I will do it if necessary. MSG if you need to be reaped.

image.png.400136d69c8735795b22adba44cf306a.png

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later tonight and on Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Someone along the east coast is going to get smoked tomorrow with this wind. It's high end stuff for sure. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Someone along the east coast is going to get smoked tomorrow with this wind. It's high end stuff for sure. 

Funny how a lot of folks (this is not directed at you) have gone from saying "the wind will not be the story here" to the opposite. Anomalous setup! 

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Funny how a lot of folks (this is not directed at you) have gone from saying "the wind will not be the story here" to the opposite. Anomalous setup! 

I was definitely one of those who kinda thought the winds would be meh.  I wasn't overly vocal about it, but still.  Might be a nice surprise with this one.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I was definitely one of those who kinda thought the winds would be meh.  I wasn't overly vocal about it, but still.  Might be a nice surprise with this one.

Ultimately they could still fail locally (except along the favored coastlines like Point Lookout). It will be interesting to see how things transpire from around sunrise until early afternoon. Pretty cool to see how fast the rain shield is on guidance. The meat and potatoes of it may be in around sunrise and out by 1pm or so for some areas. 

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Just a thought I keep having when the speed limiting the flood potential is brought up. I’ve witnessed some pretty impressive flooding from training thunderstorms that lasted only an hour. Even tonight when dropping my car in Hanover for a service there was pretty good street flooding from just a 30 minute downpour during that pre pre pre rain band this afternoon. So if it pours for 4/5 hours some places will definitely see flooding. Will it be the kind of flooding like when a stalled system rains for 48 hours and people need roof rescues no. But do we really want that???? 
 

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good to know some get as illogically bent about regular water as they do the frozen varieties. 

I posted a little while ago about how I saw the same tendencies here as in the winter...yep, same psychology, lol

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Just now, RVASnowLover said:

Landfall reported at 11:10 pm near Ocean Isle Beach, NC

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of 
Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina 
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum 
sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).

A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported 
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 
km/h). 

A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported 
a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky/Beven
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Just a thought I keep having when the speed limiting the flood potential is brought up. I’ve witnessed some pretty impressive flooding from training thunderstorms that lasted only an hour. Even tonight when dropping my car in Hanover for a service there was pretty good street flooding from just a 30 minute downpour during that pre pre pre rain band this afternoon. So if it pours for 4/5 hours some places will definitely see flooding. Will it be the kind of flooding like when a stalled system rains for 48 hours and people need roof rescues no. But do we really want that???? 
 

A la Harvey (although that stalled even longer than that, didn't it?)

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10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Funny how a lot of folks (this is not directed at you) have gone from saying "the wind will not be the story here" to the opposite. Anomalous setup! 

Yeah count me in that group. I sure thought the euro winds were crazy but maybe not so much

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Heavy batch of rain headed up into PG and AA looks like it means business. I'm staying up later then usual to catch the action.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A la Harvey (although that stalled even longer than that, didn't it?)

Yes but most of the real damage was done in the first 48 hours. Long duration lighter rains won’t really do as much. It doesn’t help when it’s already flooded but the 25” of rain that fell the first 36 hours did way more of the damage than the 2-3” that fell over the next 36 hours. 

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Winds still have to produce and the Euro is probably still way too high, but this is the kind of setup where you can get widespread TS wind and some higher end wind gusts in the right locations. Tomorrow will be interesting. 

A side note--with Hanna and Isaias landfalling in rapid succession, this is one of the quickest 1-2 hurricane landfalls we've seen. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just a thought I keep having when the speed limiting the flood potential is brought up. I’ve witnessed some pretty impressive flooding from training thunderstorms that lasted only an hour. Even tonight when dropping my car in Hanover for a service there was pretty good street flooding from just a 30 minute downpour during that pre pre pre rain band this afternoon. So if it pours for 4/5 hours some places will definitely see flooding. Will it be the kind of flooding like when a stalled system rains for 48 hours and people need roof rescues no. But do we really want that???? 
 

I think we're good with floating cars so we can yell that people should have turned around. 

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This is part of the reason why you see some of those rainfall accumulations on models... in the regions closer to the bay.

image.png.1f8f85c661ffc6d70ffc29808eb35996.png

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks for your input good sir!!

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Beautiful!  Thank you.  

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