Hurricane Isaías

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

We'll see how the motion looks over the next few hours. What's the best practice? Isn't it like 3 or 4 hours average motion? 

Not sure TBH. I like using long term radar for track. Something like what Ian posted. 

[stormtracker]

 

[Ian]

I think when radar is giving you the finger (and you are at the tip of the finger) early in the game you know it's gonna be good. The forest toppling (or some fraction of that) winds may stay east east but oh well. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

That ENE motion is interesting. I would have thought NNE from the sat. Am I interpreting that correctly. That’s a right turn if accurate.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That ENE motion is interesting. I would have thought NNE from the sat. Am I interpreting that correctly. That’s a right turn if accurate.

I'm out.  

[LeesburgWx]

Wilmington to Norfolk is about to take a beating/on the chin/a whip out back. Ever since I moved from Norfolk to Leesburg, they have gotten more snow and that is now translating to Hurricanes...

[WinterWxLuvr]

I see our boy is lurking.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That ENE motion is interesting. I would have thought NNE from the sat. Am I interpreting that correctly. That’s a right turn if accurate.

My guess is that it is a short term wobble. Using the long term motion radar it's still on track to landfall within the NHC cone. 

[George BM]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-comp_radar-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

8 hour loop.

[snowfan]

HRRR is kinda meh. Hate to sound like EJ, but its flying through the area, winds stay east of the bay and the rain is like a normal big rainer around here.

[Stormfly]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That ENE motion is interesting. I would have thought NNE from the sat. Am I interpreting that correctly. That’s a right turn if accurate.

It's going to head due east, wind up like clock's mainspring to CAT5, stall then recurve WNW and up the bay smack dab in the middle with the center going right over the Key Bridge.  Edgemere should see 140knt gusts.  BGE expecting 950k customers without power by this time tomorrow and it won't be until after Labor Day before they all get restored.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

HRRR is kinda meh. Hate to sound like EJ, but its flying through the area, winds stay east of the bay and the rain is like a normal big rainer around here.

I wouldn't use the HRRR for a tropical system until it's almost right on top of us. Just another piece of data to look at I guess - but not sure it holds a ton of weight yet. We've seen it bust within 3 hours of severe weather events. 

[Baltimorewx]

6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

HRRR is kinda meh. Hate to sound like EJ, but its flying through the area, winds stay east of the bay and the rain is like a normal big rainer around here.

The last HRRR run I saw still put down 4-6” of rain with 6-8” lollies

[wawarriors4]

 

[gymengineer]

I must be missing something- what is this about ENE motion?

8 pm and 9 pm NHC updates were both NNE: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/040000.shtml

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/040057.shtml

[DCTeacherman]

12k nam is a weenie run, right up the bay.

[George BM]

18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That ENE motion is interesting. I would have thought NNE from the sat. Am I interpreting that correctly. That’s a right turn if accurate.

The smaller vort-max within the larger circulation now appears to be in the "due north part" of it's loop according to doppler radar.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I must be missing something- what is this about ENE motion?

8 pm and 9 pm NHC updates were both NNE: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/040000.shtml

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/040057.shtml

I was only referring to a post made here. ENE just seemed off to me too.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

12k nam is a weenie 

Fixed it for ya

[jewell2188]

CWG seems to agree with the slight shift East. slight but it’s enough to easily push the heavy rain toward the bay. 

[Eskimo Joe]

There's a clear east trend with the reliable guidance and WPC forecast totals. Looking like more a non-event now the more N&W you go from I-95.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah. No real change in the track. Maybe a touch east but I don't think it's anything meaningful. Landfall imminent in the SC/NC border region. 

Edit: I guess there are differing opinions on the track lol. 

[RVASnowLover]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. No real change in the track. Maybe a touch east but I don't think it's anything meaningful. Landfall imminent in the SC/NC border region. 

Edit: I guess there are differing opinions on the track lol. 

Agree. The thought all along was for landfall to be around SC/NC border and that still looks to be on track.

[jewell2188]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. No real change in the track. Maybe a touch east but I don't think it's anything meaningful. Landfall imminent in the SC/NC border region. 

Edit: I guess there are differing opinions on the track lol. 

1-3 inches of rain in the immediate metro is pretty common lol. This is a bay event. I think most would agree. Nonetheless, congrats to them!!

[PrinceFrederickWx]

11 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

 

Ugh... I guarantee this will verify because my town (once again) is the jackpot for the deluge in this map.

I’ve had over 13” of rain in four weeks.

[Kmlwx]

Based on where that recon center fix is going to be - the movement is more north than east compared to the last few points. 

[H2O]

The series of posts on this page is lol. We’ve gone from HRRR bust to NAM is fine to oh noes CWG said East a little

[Ian]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There's a clear east trend with the reliable guidance and WPC forecast totals. Looking like more a non-event now the more N&W you go from I-95.

If I wake up to you reporting thundersnow...

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Ian said:

nice.. strengthening storms tend to perform+ 

Yes and isn’t it true than since they are intensifying  instead of weakening that the land does not bring winds down as quick or as much?

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

The series of posts on this page is lol. We’ve gone from HRRR bust to NAM is fine to oh noes CWG said East a little

It’s like the night before a blizzard around here...oh no! HRRR 3 hours before the storm shows 18” of snow and not 24”!