• Member Statistics

    16,069
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    FirstinWeather
    Newest Member
    FirstinWeather
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

We'll see how the motion looks over the next few hours. What's the best practice? Isn't it like 3 or 4 hours average motion? 

Not sure TBH. I like using long term radar for track. Something like what Ian posted. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think when radar is giving you the finger (and you are at the tip of the finger) early in the game you know it's gonna be good. The forest toppling (or some fraction of that) winds may stay east east but oh well. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That ENE motion is interesting. I would have thought NNE from the sat. Am I interpreting that correctly. That’s a right turn if accurate.

I'm out.  

  • Haha 5
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wilmington to Norfolk is about to take a beating/on the chin/a whip out back. Ever since I moved from Norfolk to Leesburg, they have gotten more snow and that is now translating to Hurricanes...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That ENE motion is interesting. I would have thought NNE from the sat. Am I interpreting that correctly. That’s a right turn if accurate.

My guess is that it is a short term wobble. Using the long term motion radar it's still on track to landfall within the NHC cone. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HRRR is kinda meh. Hate to sound like EJ, but its flying through the area, winds stay east of the bay and the rain is like a normal big rainer around here.

  • Haha 2
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That ENE motion is interesting. I would have thought NNE from the sat. Am I interpreting that correctly. That’s a right turn if accurate.

It's going to head due east, wind up like clock's mainspring to CAT5, stall then recurve WNW and up the bay smack dab in the middle with the center going right over the Key Bridge.  Edgemere should see 140knt gusts.  BGE expecting 950k customers without power by this time tomorrow and it won't be until after Labor Day before they all get restored.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

HRRR is kinda meh. Hate to sound like EJ, but its flying through the area, winds stay east of the bay and the rain is like a normal big rainer around here.

I wouldn't use the HRRR for a tropical system until it's almost right on top of us. Just another piece of data to look at I guess - but not sure it holds a ton of weight yet. We've seen it bust within 3 hours of severe weather events. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

HRRR is kinda meh. Hate to sound like EJ, but its flying through the area, winds stay east of the bay and the rain is like a normal big rainer around here.

The last HRRR run I saw still put down 4-6” of rain with 6-8” lollies

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That ENE motion is interesting. I would have thought NNE from the sat. Am I interpreting that correctly. That’s a right turn if accurate.

The smaller vort-max within the larger circulation now appears to be in the "due north part" of it's loop according to doppler radar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a clear east trend with the reliable guidance and WPC forecast totals. Looking like more a non-event now the more N&W you go from I-95.

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah. No real change in the track. Maybe a touch east but I don't think it's anything meaningful. Landfall imminent in the SC/NC border region. 

Edit: I guess there are differing opinions on the track lol. 

OGwOjxk.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. No real change in the track. Maybe a touch east but I don't think it's anything meaningful. Landfall imminent in the SC/NC border region. 

Edit: I guess there are differing opinions on the track lol. 

OGwOjxk.png

Agree. The thought all along was for landfall to be around SC/NC border and that still looks to be on track.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. No real change in the track. Maybe a touch east but I don't think it's anything meaningful. Landfall imminent in the SC/NC border region. 

Edit: I guess there are differing opinions on the track lol. 

OGwOjxk.png

1-3 inches of rain in the immediate metro is pretty common lol. This is a bay event. I think most would agree. Nonetheless, congrats to them!!

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The series of posts on this page is lol. We’ve gone from HRRR bust to NAM is fine to oh noes CWG said East a little

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There's a clear east trend with the reliable guidance and WPC forecast totals. Looking like more a non-event now the more N&W you go from I-95.

If I wake up to you reporting thundersnow...

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ian said:

nice.. strengthening storms tend to perform+ 

Yes and isn’t it true than since they are intensifying  instead of weakening that the land does not bring winds down as quick or as much?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, H2O said:

The series of posts on this page is lol. We’ve gone from HRRR bust to NAM is fine to oh noes CWG said East a little

It’s like the night before a blizzard around here...oh no! HRRR 3 hours before the storm shows 18” of snow and not 24”!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.