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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

i do not know how @WxWatcher007 deals with the weenies in the main thread. someone is saying its going to be a cat2 at landfall

It's the price I pay for having a place to talk tropical. Between wishcasters and tropical snobs, it is a high cost.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It's the price I pay for having a place to talk tropical. Between wishcasters and tropical snobs, it is a high cost.

more power to you, friend. i only venture in there when someone reports a post. 

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53 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Even Columbia is now in the game!  Good luck to old town Ellicott City— they don’t need this. 

You need 8 plus inches in an hour or two to cause the kind of flooding we saw the last two events.  I live a mile away at the top part of the valley in Catsonville.  This isnt gonna be anything like the last two events.  

The high water mark in town was Agnes.  However, Agnes was nothing like the two 1000 year floods.  Agnes was a Patapsco River valley flooding event where the river rose relatively slowly to inundate the lower areas of the town.  

The two 1000 year floods were flooding events that occurred from Tributaries leading in to town being overcome by a the massive amount of precip that fell in a very short period of time. .  

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's the price I pay for having a place to talk tropical. Between wishcasters and tropical snobs, it is a high cost.

you always have a place here to have sensible convos

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I've been busy modding my tropical weather subreddit and it has been... a chore to say the least. I'm excited at the rain potential from this storm up here, and my son is excited to experience "his first hurricane". I'm trying to break it to him that it's just going to be a lot of rain and a tropical storm but he's 4, lol.

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3 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

You need 8 plus inches in an hour or two to cause the kind of flooding we saw the last two events.  I live a mile away at the top part of the valley in Catsonville.  This isnt gonna be anything like the last two events.  

The high water mark in town was Agnes.  However, Agnes was nothing like the two 1000 year floods.  Agnes was a Patapsco River valley flooding event where the river rose relatively slowly to inundate the lower areas of the town.  

The two 1000 year floods were flooding events that occurred from Tributaries leading in to town being overcome by a the massive amount of precip that fell in a very short period of time. .  

Although true, I would not rule out some incredibly large amounts of rain falling pretty quickly in localized spots with this set up.

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

you always have a place here to have sensible convos

and I love you all for it :wub: 

2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

I've been busy modding my tropical weather subreddit and it has been... a chore to say the least. I'm excited at the rain potential from this storm up here, and my son is excited to experience "his first hurricane". I'm trying to break it to him that it's just going to be a lot of rain and a tropical storm but he's 4, lol.

I haven't had a chance to pop over there, but I will eventually. It's only August 3 after all. :lol: :yikes: 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

and I love you all for it :wub: 

I haven't had a chance to pop over there, but I will eventually. It's only August 3 after all. :lol: :yikes: 

Its been a busy season!

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also, here's the answer to the last time LWX issued TS warning

 

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

KDOX radar appears to be back online

Any bets it goes down again just as we are getting into the good stuff?

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2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Its been a busy season!

You gotta wonder if this ridge dominant pattern is going to continue through the peak. The long range could be brutal if this keeps up. 

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8 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

I've been busy modding my tropical weather subreddit and it has been... a chore to say the least. I'm excited at the rain potential from this storm up here, and my son is excited to experience "his first hurricane". I'm trying to break it to him that it's just going to be a lot of rain and a tropical storm but he's 4, lol.

My name is u/road_chewer so maybe you’ve seen me around over there. r/TropicalWeather right? Did you start it?

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's the price I pay for having a place to talk tropical. Between wishcasters and tropical snobs, it is a high cost.

Are tropical snobs similar to HECS snobs in winter?  And I wonder if the Tropical Reaper may be called upon (if he exists!) to collect all those weenie souls jumping off the cliffs at each model run or NHC update!

Hmmm...Tropical Reaper...it just might work!  Throw on a Hawaiian like shirt over that skeleton, along with some shorts and one of those sun hats, and you'll be all set!  Maybe carry a tropical drink of sorts (a Hurricane??  Margarita??).

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

You gotta wonder if this ridge dominant pattern is going to continue through the peak. The long range could be brutal if this keeps up. 

Can't wait for the transition to winter lows up the coast!!!!  You could get almost 9 months more of this!!!!!

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

also, here's the answer to the last time LWX issued TS warning

 

Interesting how they're all clustered for Aug - Sept.

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3 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

My name is u/road_chewer so maybe you’ve seen me around over there. r/TropicalWeather right? Did you start it?

Yup, I made it several years ago :) I don't run it as much as I used to, others have picked up the slack for me.

 

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Are tropical snobs similar to HECS snobs in winter?  And I wonder if the Tropical Reaper may be called upon (if he exists!) to collect all those weenie souls jumping off the cliffs at each model run or NHC update!

Hmmm...Tropical Reaper...it just might work!  Throw on a Hawaiian like shirt over that skeleton, along with some shorts and one of those sun hats, and you'll be all set!  Maybe carry a tropical drink of sorts (a Hurricane??  Margarita??).

Tropical reaper would be incredible.

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You gotta wonder if this ridge dominant pattern is going to continue through the peak. The long range could be brutal if this keeps up. 

At this point even an average season from here on out pushes it recordbreaking. If this pattern does keep up, god help us when the CV season gets cranking.

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Like Jim Cantore, our own @WxWatcher007 will be setting up for live reports starting tomorrow.  Here he is now under good conditions

Swim Reaper' who hangs out at the beach is Instagram's latest star – with  almost 100k followers

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Are tropical snobs similar to HECS snobs in winter?  And I wonder if the Tropical Reaper may be called upon (if he exists!) to collect all those weenie souls jumping off the cliffs at each model run or NHC update!

Hmmm...Tropical Reaper...it just might work!  Throw on a Hawaiian like shirt over that skeleton, along with some shorts and one of those sun hats, and you'll be all set!  Maybe carry a tropical drink of sorts (a Hurricane??  Margarita??).

Hahaha it is good to hear from you. 

Tropical Reaper couldn't work. Unlike winter, I care for tropical. 

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

Like Jim Cantore, our own @WxWatcher007 will be setting up for live reports starting tomorrow.  Here he is now under good conditions

Swim Reaper' who hangs out at the beach is Instagram's latest star – with  almost 100k followers

Will he start jumping up and down for joy like Cantore does with thunder snow...at every wind burst that meets tropical storm or hurricane criteria??

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Interesting how they're all clustered for Aug - Sept.

is it? seems pretty standard climo time period for us.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hahaha it is good to hear from you. 

Tropical Reaper couldn't work. Unlike winter, I care for tropical. 

Ahhh, too bad.  But I understand.  However...a business opportunity lost!! :lol:

(ETA:  Good to hear from you, too!  Hope you are well these days!!)

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Just now, mappy said:

is it? seems pretty standard climo time period for us.

Yea, not making any big claims about it. It just reinforces that Aug & Sept are really our peak hurricane climo in these parts.

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Will he start jumping up and down for joy like Cantore does with thunder snow...at every wind burst that meets tropical storm or hurricane criteria??

If I get into some of this tomorrow, I might disrobe. 

fcdsymb.png

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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Will he start jumping up and down for joy like Cantore does with thunder snow...at every wind burst that meets tropical storm or hurricane criteria??

or it could end up like this

image.jpeg.3fff4d40054826a04ffa4be602403ba5.jpeg

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Should be interesting. It looks like DC could get about as much rain as it did during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. I think DC got about 5 inches during that, with more to the east??  Besides Floyd, I don't remember Isabel delivering much rain in 2003, and I recall Sandy in 2012 also under performing around here in terms of rain as well. By in large, over past 20 years, most tropical systems that have blown through the DMV seem to have amounted to very little, even when they triggered mass closures.  I guess this time most stuff already closed due to Covid, but in a pre-covid world, an official tropical storm warning usually meant schools and even OPM, and maybe the Metro, would be closed tomorrow.

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