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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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Welp. I didn't expect to start a second tropical impacts thread around here but here we are. Banner year :lol: 

Our long track CV system is on close approach near Florida, but here in the Mid-Atlantic we are expecting direct impacts as the NHC is calling for a 60 mph TS in the Bay by Tuesday. TS Watches should be issued later today. 

WWtfHM6.png

C1riD2R.png

The biggest threat is the rain, as we watch a possible PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) setup maximize rainfall through much of the metropolitan region. As the system rolls northeast, a trough will interact with it. There is strong agreement among the guidance that the Mid-Atlantic has the best shot at high rainfall totals. Keep in mind however, that with the track near Florida still in doubt, and overall intensity at landfall in the Carolinas, the jackpot zone can change. There are always winners and losers in tropical. 

UluPINb.png

This is the thread to follow the short range trends and post observations. Good luck, everyone. 

Can't finish the OP without the weenie Euro gust product. Go ahead and take 30% off this. 

1pE3KFX.png

 

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I just posted about it in the main thread, but the main thing I am watching is the track today. As I said there, if this is able to make a faster NNE turn and maximize time over water, given how much it is trying (and currently failing) to organize it might try to reorganize fairly quickly in even a marginally more favorable environment. That could have a downstream impact, especially if the track is closer to Wilmington than Charleston, as a core would have less time to fall apart. That's provided that the shear vector is aligned to help rather than tear the system apart. 

A lot of ifs in there, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this regain category one intensity on approach to the Carolinas, especially if the heading is more toward eastern NC than central SC. 

 

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I just posted about it in the main thread, but the main thing I am watching is the track today. As I said there, if this is able to make a faster NNE turn and maximize time over water, given how much it is trying (and currently failing) to organize it might try to reorganize fairly quickly in even a marginally more favorable environment. That could have a downstream impact, especially if the track is closer to Wilmington than Charleston, as a core would have less time to fall apart. That's provided that the shear vector is aligned to help rather than tear the system apart. 

A lot of ifs in there, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this regain category one intensity on approach to the Carolinas, especially if the heading is more toward eastern NC than central SC. 

 

Funny that we might get it worse than Florida. There’s really not much on the west side of this thing right now but so much moisture to be had moving north 

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Funny that we might get it worse than Florida. There’s really not much on the west side of this thing right now but so much moisture to be had moving north 

Tropical can be funny like that. Outside of the coastal Carolina region y'all might be the east coast "jackpot" for impacts. 

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Funny that we might get it worse than Florida. There’s really not much on the west side of this thing right now but so much moisture to be had moving north 

It doesn't look like its going to get its act together at this point, but the official track keeps it offshore and in the warm waters until it reaches SC. The interaction with the strong upper jet that looks to develop just to the NW will likely enhance the rain potential up this way, due the strong divergence/diffluence aloft.

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO

A5D9D834-9058-4C58-A239-96F253FC5F3B.png

8D658C65-8B67-4BA9-948B-0955B79242FA.png

DB5E626E-0302-477A-91B0-1CA8DCA3E7AF.png

Wow, that’s about as good as it gets with this kinda setup for us.  Where do I sign on the dotted line?

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Convection really blowing up at this time. 
 

if the shear was minimal and dry air wasn’t a factor. One would thing this thing would be a monster. 

D45E7F48-1C08-48C1-A82E-048779A814F9.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Convection really blowing up at this time. 
 

if the shear was minimal and dry air wasn’t a factor. One would thing this thing would be a monster. 

D45E7F48-1C08-48C1-A82E-048779A814F9.jpeg

I read an article, can't recall where, but it talked about how hurricanes lately have experienced rapid intensification in under 24 hours. I'm not saying that will happen here, but there has been a trend where a storm will take off from a TS and end up a CAT 3 within hours. 

This storm has held together for a long time. I'm surprised it is still holding together. 

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Thanks @WxWatcher007 for the thread and information. Looking forward to the rain 

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4 hours ago, yoda said:

Wind probs have increased a good amount -- I cut and pasted our local area from ACY to ORF

Link -- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/020856.shtml?

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020               
0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  32(33)   1(34)   X(34)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
BALTIMORE MD   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  33(34)   X(34)   X(34)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
DOVER DE       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)   1(30)   X(30)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
ANNAPOLIS MD   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   X(25)   X(25)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  43(44)   1(45)   X(45)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  45(46)   X(46)   X(46)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  36(38)   X(38)   X(38)
PAX RIVER NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
PAX RIVER NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  46(48)   1(49)   X(49)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   X(17)   X(17)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  35(38)   X(38)   X(38)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
RICHMOND VA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   X(18)   X(18)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  44(48)   X(48)   X(48)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  44(48)   X(48)   X(48)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  44(48)   X(48)   X(48)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

Through this deserved a repost in the dedicated thread 

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Not that anyone should be paying too much attention the the NAM at this juncture, but the 12z run has the track and max qpf area further east, more in line with the globals.

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Being on the right side of the storm as it passes through makes it more likely to have the higher wind gusts, correct?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Being on the right side of the storm as it passes through makes it more likely to have the higher wind gusts, correct?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

Yes

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41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not that anyone should be paying too much attention the the NAM at this juncture, but the 12z run has the track and max qpf area further east, more in line with the globals.

I would think as we get closer we would see a much sharper cut off in respect to a lot of rain versus little. You would think I-95 is the line.

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If the new center is further East off the Florida coast, that would argue for a more eastern track up the coast. I I have a feeling later today and tomorrow models are going to adjust further East then what they are currently. I really do feel as though this a NE MD and Easter shore event versus immediate metro impacts. 

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5 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

If the new center is further East off the Florida coast, that would argue for a more eastern track up the coast. I I have a feeling later today and tomorrow models are going to adjust further East then what they are currently. I really do feel as though this a NE MD and Easter shore event versus immediate metro impacts. 

Not sure it's that simple. I would think the trough position/orientation as well as the exact position of the WA ridge will be major factors in determining the ultimate track.

The 12z GFS appears to be slightly further east, but might just be run to run noise.

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15 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

If the new center is further East off the Florida coast, that would argue for a more eastern track up the coast. I I have a feeling later today and tomorrow models are going to adjust further East then what they are currently. I really do feel as though this a NE MD and Easter shore event versus immediate metro impacts. 

       While there will be a sharp cutoff for the batch of heavy rain close to the storm center Tuesday morning that *could* end up further east, there is still real potential for significant amounts further west Monday night.    Dynamics with the upper jet orientation will have a stream of tropical moisture surging north well out ahead of Isaias' center (2"+ PWATs) which will certainly lead to some healthy localized totals.

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17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not sure it's that simple. I would think the trough position/orientation as well as the exact position of the WA ridge will be major factors in determining the ultimate track.

The 12z GFS appears to be slightly further east, but might just be run to run noise.

I agree and was thinking the same thing. It’s not as simple as saying 50 miles east now will produce a linear change of 50 miles east later on.

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12 minutes ago, high risk said:

       While there will be a sharp cutoff for the batch of heavy rain close to the storm center Tuesday morning that *could* end up further east, there is still real potential for significant amounts further west Monday night.    Dynamics with the upper jet orientation will have a stream of tropical moisture surging north well out ahead of Isaias' center (2"+ PWATs) which will certainly lead to some healthy localized totals.

That makes sense. I guess i am Use to the typical east/west adjustments make a huge difference in most situations like this but understanding the other dynamics involved can over come those 50 mile East or west changes. 

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I agree and was thinking the same thing. It’s not as simple as saying 50 miles east now will produce a linear change of 50 miles east later on.

Tell that to Tony Pann lol. But no I agree. I mean sure it may matter for a couple of towns west of I-95 but I think in general whether the storm tracks over La Plata MD or Cambridge Md doesn’t matter that much for overall rain totals along I95

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Tell that to Tony Pann lol. But no I agree. I mean sure it may matter for a couple of towns west of I-95 but I think in general whether the storm tracks over La Plata MD or Cambridge Md doesn’t matter that much for overall rain totals along I95

I literally just saw that lol. He’s mr deep thunder and snow train in the winter. Enough said.

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17 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

That makes sense. I guess i am Use to the typical east/west adjustments make a huge difference in most situations like this but understanding the other dynamics involved can over come those 50 mile East or west changes. 

     Yeah, the 850 wind and PWAT really show the setup for the potential predecessor event Monday evening.     Moisture will be streaming north well out ahead of the center of the storm and boosting precipitable water totals.  I didn't include 250 winds,  but you can see in those charts that we're in the right rear quadrant of the upper jet which enhances lift.     So we have upper dynamics, a front, and tropical moisture - that can lead to some super impressive QPF that the models (especially the globals) will struggle to predict.

 

 

 

Screen_Shot_2020-08-02_at_12_31.41_PM.png

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