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August Discobs 2020


George BM
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Significant flood wave moving down the Patapsco River 

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
702 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

MDC005-027-510-130045-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-200813T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Baltimore City MD-Howard MD-Baltimore MD-
702 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR
EASTERN HOWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTIES AND BALTIMORE
CITY...

At 701 PM EDT, widespread flash flooding was reported, especially in
the Catonsville, Oella, Arbutus, and Lansdowne areas. There was also
a significant flood wave moving down the Patapsco River with
flooding beginning in the Patapsco State Park and Elkridge areas.
Over three inches of rain have fallen in some locations. Flash
flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash
         flooding.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Baltimore...                      Columbia...
Pikesville...                     Elkridge...
Historic Ellicott City...         Ellicott City...
Towson...                         Catonsville...
Woodlawn...                       Randallstown...
Owings Mills...                   Milford Mill...
Lochearn...                       Arbutus...
Brooklyn Park...                  Savage-guilford...
Ilchester...                      Linthicum...
Garrison...                       Lansdowne...
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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Some big hits on the 18z Eps with the ull this weekend along i95 DC To Baltimore. 

      Definitely.    The ground is already very wet in parts of the area, there could be more storms later tonight, storm chances are good tomorrow and maybe Friday, and we then have to deal with the weekend.

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Just now, high risk said:

      Definitely.    The ground is already very wet in parts of the area, there could be more storms later tonight, storm chances are good tomorrow and maybe Friday, and we then have to deal with the weekend.

Are we looking at a more widespread coverage in the next few days??

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3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Are we looking at a more widespread coverage in the next few days??

    Probably not Thursday and Friday.   Still potential for huge soakers, but the weaker steering currents argue against  widespread coverage.

   The weekend could be a different story, with a very favorable upper pattern and tropical moisture still in place.

 

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Never heard of WOFs before... anyone else heard of it before?  What kind of model ensemble is it?

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
946 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall over the Middle Atlantic through Thursday, then
drift southward Friday into Saturday. The front will then lift back
northward through the end of the weekend as low pressure lifts into
the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The heaviest rain has tapered off for the majority of our
region. A line of thunderstorms have formed over western
Maryland and the eastern Panhandle of WV. The WOFs or Warn on
forecast experimental ensembles were hinting at this solution
all night and this will remain the main concern area over the
next few ours. A new thunderstorm has also formed over central
Virginia in Orange County and if it happens to move over areas
that received a lot of rainfall in our central Virginia counties
, further flood warnings may be needed. Since we have ongoing
storms that may linger through the next few hours we may need
extend the Flash Flood Watch through the overnight periods.

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17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Never heard of WOFs before... anyone else heard of it before?  What kind of model ensemble is it?

 

 

https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov             It's a hi-res ensemble, effectively run on-demand.     You select a regional domain of interest and initialize it with new assimilation techniques to try to get the best initial conditions (environmental parameters and ongoing precipitation).      The longer term goal is to have a system like this be good enough so that warnings can actually be issued by forecasts from the WoF instead of having to wait for radar signatures or ground truth.

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16 minutes ago, high risk said:

https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov             It's a hi-res ensemble, effectively run on-demand.     You select a regional domain of interest and initialize it with new assimilation techniques to try to get the best initial conditions (environmental parameters and ongoing precipitation).      The longer term goal is to have a system like this be good enough so that warnings can actually be issued by forecasts from the WoF instead of having to wait for radar signatures or ground truth.

Very interesting and thanks for the response, appreciate it.  Sounds like something to do in my spare time lol

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