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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias


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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Based on the past 2 days off inter-model averages, I'd say it's a bit of an underperformer in the QPF department for much of the State.  NW areas have been consistently modeled in the 2-6" range.  It's not over yet.

Im already at 1.25" and the meat of it isn't even here yet. 

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8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Based on the past 2 days off inter-model averages, I'd say it's a bit of an underperformer in the QPF department for much of the State.  NW areas have been consistently modeled in the 2-6" range.  It's not over yet.

Outside of the UKMET, my area has been forecast for 1-2" since yesterday morning.

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Getting some gusts now, nothing major yet though. 78/76 with 0.01” from a brief shower.

Didn’t see any Tropical Storm Warnings posted on the LIE like with Fay (and every other TS), everything still COVID related. A lot of people seem oblivious to what’s about to happen.

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Just now, Cfa said:

Getting some gusts now, nothing major yet though. 78/76 with 0.01” from a brief shower.

Didn’t see any Tropical Storm Warnings posted on the LIE like with Fay (and every other TS), everything still COVID related. A lot of people seem oblivious to what’s about to happen.

Those supercells south of the island are headed right towards us. ITs going to get ugly

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Outside of the UKMET, my area has been forecaste for 1-2" since yesterday morning.

I'm not calling model bust.  I'm saying that relative to where things stood 2 days ago, considering the tropical storm path, jet structure, PWATS, time of year, and atmospheric instability, I consider this an underperformance relative to potential.  This has not been a very big rain producer in most of NJ.

 

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I'm not calling model bust.  I'm saying that relative to where things stood 2 days ago, considering the tropical storm path, jet structure, PWATS, time of year, and atmospheric instability, I consider this an underperformance relative to potential.  This has not been a very big rain producer in most of NJ.

 

I'll take 2-3" of rain and the wind over 6-8" rain and no wind.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 417
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     northern Connecticut
     Massachusetts
     southern New Hampshire
     eastern New York
     northern Rhode Island
     southern Vermont
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 80 mph possible

   SUMMARY...In association with the north-northeastward progression of
   Isaias, thunderstorm activity will form and spread northward across
   the region this afternoon through early evening, in an environment
   conducive to the development of a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 35 miles north northwest of
   Poughkeepsie NY to 30 miles east southeast of Boston MA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm not calling model bust.  I'm saying that relative to where things stood 2 days ago, considering the tropical storm path, jet structure, PWATS, time of year, and atmospheric instability, I consider this an underperformance relative to potential.  This has not been a very big rain producer in most of NJ.

 

No bust out here.  7.22” and still coming down.

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