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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias


wdrag
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Modeling of winds gusts from 12z HRRRX... this modeling looks very accurate to within 5kt.  50 kt =58 MPH.  Posted for 17z, and 21z...note nw NJ in a little lull then cranks on the west flow around 4P.  

Also added power outages. 

Many reports 55-64KT in NJ coastal plain. 

1144A/4

 

Screen Shot 2020-08-04 at 11.35.41 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-04 at 11.37.15 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-04 at 11.38.20 AM.png

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think this is it regarding the tornado threat outside of LI. 

Particularly concerned about the cell moving into Eastern Bergen County.

The intense rotating cells kind of pulsed off and skipped northeastward from SNJ to LI.  But it's still possible a few cells pop up unexpectedly.  The back edge of rain is fast approaching, but winds should still be strong for a few hours.

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The intense rotating cells kind of pulsed off and skipped northeastward from SNJ to LI.  But it's still possible a few cells pop up unexpectedly.  The back edge of rain is fast approaching, but winds should still be strong for a few hours.

Yep, that was evident early on with the back edge of the feeder band near cape May earlier.

 

Its currently exiting Monmouth county 

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Modeling of winds gusts from 12z HRRRX... this modeling looks very accurate to within 5kt.  50 kt =58 MPH.  Posted for 17z, and 21z...note nw NJ in a little lull then cranks on the west flow around 4P.  

Also added power outages. 

Many reports 55-64KT in NJ coastal plain. 

1144A/4

 

Looks a little high to me where I am in Morris County.  Definitely gusty but not sure we even saw 40kt locally.  Maybe up in the higher elevations.

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Looks a little high to me where I am in Morris County.  Definitely gusty but not sure we even saw 40kt locally.  Maybe up in the higher elevations.

Give this til 130P. If nothing, then don't giver up on back side G 45-50kt for an hr around 4P. HRRRX modeling has been good at 24 hrs and very good inside 12 hours. 

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