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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias


wdrag
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Agreed on poor mesoscale modeling via the NAM/ARW.  Second slug in VA will find its way up into e PA maybe NJ overnight.  If we get a subtle sic wind convergence zone,  could easily be some 4+ inch amounts by morning. Not staying up to witness...instead get up at 4A and see what's what.  Busy day for NY forum tomorrow including the big damaging winds (fully leafed trees)/rains/FFW's. Could see widespread power outages in the afternoon/eve.

Am aware of svr leading edge this eve in NJ heading north on the nose of the 850jet/fgen/waa but just didn't have the heart to get this mixed in as well...  too much other high impact weather ahead. The TOR's could be a problem tomorrow, if they occur coastal NJ/LI/CT. 

911P

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9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Agreed on poor mesoscale modeling via the NAM/ARW.  Second slug in VA will find its way up into e PA maybe NJ overnight.  If we get a subtle sic wind convergence zone,  could easily be some 4+ inch amounts by morning. Not staying up to witness...instead get up at 4A and see what's what.  Busy day for NY forum tomorrow including the big damaging winds (fully leafed trees)/rains/FFW's. Could see widespread power outages in the afternoon/eve.

Am aware of svr leading edge this eve in NJ heading north on the nose of the 850jet/fgen/waa but just didn't have the heart to get this mixed in as well...  too much other high impact weather ahead. The TOR's could be a problem tomorrow, if they occur coastal NJ/LI/CT. 

911P

If we get a quick inch or two overnight that will soften up the ground for more absorption with tomorrow’s heavier downpours and combined with the winds will have an impact on tree uprooting.

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9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

TOMS River from a thunderstorm  peak G 61 kt at 751P  KMJX 032353Z AUTO 25041G61KT 

 

JFK 45 kt right now. 

75 mph at Berkeley Twp, which I think is co-located with the Toms River AWOS at Miller Air Park. So they definitely corroborate each other. 

image.png.e629f9ee518637945a97d0e565d7c820.png

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27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wow. Starting to think the more intense impacts up here will be possible given the accelerating speed of it and it not weakening as much as normal over land due to the trough interaction 

That always the risk. We are lucky this isn't a strong 2 right now or you would be looking at 100mph plus gusts and not  the that's 80mph possible across the shore line.

The forward speed getting caught in the jet was always the concern for this holding its field all the way to 40N 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Yeah it wasn’t modeled to be severe, just the beginning of much more to come.

Its probably on the verge of being a Cat 2. 

I wonder how the models overnight will incorporate the strengthening happening now. It won’t have much time to weaken before it’s here. 

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