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"Marginal" SVR/FF risk 3P Today-3P FRI July 30-31


wdrag
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Uncertainty is considerable and confidence in any severe storm today is below average. Feel best chance 3P-10P and mainly southern CT. 

Much greater confidence for an event to monitor late tonight-Friday morning, especially midnight-Noon when the front stalls, surface convergence produces heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in NJ-LI in high PWAT airmass, especially I78 south where 6 hour "isolated 3-4" rains could occur in Ocean,  Monmouth or Mercer County. It is s of I78 where a storm may become severe after midnight and a little concerned about a supercell there early Friday. A fair amount of low level shear in a somewhat high CAPE environment is modeled down toward the Jersey shore s of Sandy Hook Friday morning. 

So not guaranteeing the second paragraph above but a number of models are heading in this direction as of 6AM/30.

Meanwhile, some beneficial rainfall is seeming headed for parts of nw NJ, maybe even all of the forum area where storms missed last week. 

 

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Quick update at 1053A:  Too much cirrus today for much if any SVR... still need to monitor CT after 5P. 

However: 

Tonight seems destined for some warnings in NJ and possibly LI. FFW in the most vulnerable tracks of 3-4" within 6 hours and I still think 1 or 2 storms overnight with damaging wind and a possible super cell I78 southward.  This latter supercell risk, I'll need to recheck at 4P. 

I've added 1 and 6 hr COUNTY wide threshold FFG for triggering a possible FFW, courtesy of NWS BGM.  Do note that the NWS offices have sub basin triggers and can really hone in on specific areas, should the needed rainfall occur.  You should be seeing-hearing lightning and dogs barking overnight in parts of NJ and LI with FFW potential late tonight-Friday morning primarily in any heavily paved communities where rainfall exceeds 3".I think that will be between I78-I195 in NJ and probably parts of LI.   

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I think this will occur, big time. look for development between PHL-ABE* around 11-11P and toward NYC from there. All sorts of high dew point air moving northward from the Delmarva along with pressure falls.  We've had two or three thunder episodes here. 215P, around 330 and about 520P.  Dog barks when outside. Can't see what he hears. Wantage 0.07 so far.  Added severe weather so far today in our area... the report in south central CT is a 47MPH wind gust at about 440P. 

Screen Shot 2020-07-30 at 5.45.43 PM.png

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I think we're very close to seeing a rapid increase in convection and subsequent east-northeast development - training near I78.  Winds turning nw and soon north, to the north of I78, while hot and humid upper 80s with TD low-mid 70s south of I78 (non marine).  A good sign is the remaining pings of small but heavy showers the PA entering se NYS at 745P.  In the meantime, not sure what will happen to all that DELMARVA activity, maybe it's own separate entity into the night? 

This may be pretty interesting between midnight -10AM in the southern part of our NYC forum area-at least for R+/TR+. (I78-LI southward). 750P/30 and possibly my last of the night. 

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