August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[doncat]

91/65 temp split today.

[Stormlover74]

10 hours ago, binbisso said:

77* in the bronx. Very unlikely to get to mid to upper 90's here. I checked several forecast not one has a higher temperature than 90 degrees for any part of our area today. That would be Northern New Jersey New York City metro Long Island Southeast New York and Southwest Connecticut don't know where those mid and Upper 90 are coming from. Maybe Central Southern New Jersey and the Philly area

Lga hit 94

[uncle W]

I had a 92/67 split today with a brief downpour this evening...

[binbisso]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lga hit 94

Yeah not surprising LGA hit 94 as well as Newark but 99% of the region was between 88 and 92 which was well forecast buy all weather Outlets. Those two sites will always run warmer and are not a very good representation of their region. 

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of August are averaging 78degs., or 4.5degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.9[77.2].         August should end at +2.1[77.3], or correcting for a +3 bias of the GFS at this range, end at +1.7[76.9].

It still appears while final arrangements to open the NYC School System on Sept. 10th. is in progress-----there is a chance they may have to be making simultaneous plans to fashion them out as hurricane shelters.      A Cat. 3 still showing up near EC on some runs for Sept. 12,13.     Critical period for this latter outcome will take place the first week of Sept.

Meanwhile Laura Leftovers may leave from 0.5" to 1.2" here, mostly from 11am-5pm Saturday.

71*(88%RH) here at 6am, m. clear-cirrus.    78*(72%RH) by 11am.           80*(67*RH) at Noon.         85*(60%RH) by 4pm, but some light rain now threatening.

[bluewave]

All our major stations are top 5 warmest for the summer so far. LGA, ISP, and BDR are currently in 1st place. 
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.6	4
2	2010	79.1	0
3	2016	78.8	0
4	2005	78.0	0
5	2018	77.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	74.7	4
-	2010	74.7	0
3	1999	74.5	0
4	2016	74.4	0
5	2011	73.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	75.6	8
2	2016	75.4	0
3	2010	75.0	0
4	2018	74.3	0
5	2012	74.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.8	0
2	1966	77.3	0
3	2005	77.1	0
4	2020	77.0	4
5	1993	76.9	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2011	78.0	0
5	2020	77.8	4
-	2005	77.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.1	0
2	2016	76.5	0
3	2015	76.0	0
4	2020	75.8	4
-	2011	75.8	0
5	1983	75.6	0

[doncat]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

All our major stations are top 5 warmest for the summer so far. LGA, ISP, and BDR are currently in 1st place. 
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.6	4
2	2010	79.1	0
3	2016	78.8	0
4	2005	78.0	0
5	2018	77.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	74.7	4
-	2010	74.7	0
3	1999	74.5	0
4	2016	74.4	0
5	2011	73.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	75.6	8
2	2016	75.4	0
3	2010	75.0	0
4	2018	74.3	0
5	2012	74.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.8	0
2	1966	77.3	0
3	2005	77.1	0
4	2020	77.0	4
5	1993	76.9	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2011	78.0	0
5	2020	77.8	4
-	2005	77.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.1	0
2	2016	76.5	0
3	2015	76.0	0
4	2020	75.8	4
-	2011	75.8	0
5	1983	75.6	0

Taking a quick look, my station looks like it will finish 2nd warmest, behind 2010.

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, doncat said:

Taking a quick look, my station looks like it will finish 2nd warmest, behind 2010.

It was just unusual to have so many 95° days without reaching 100°.

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Max  Temperature
1	1955	14	100
2	2020	13	97
-	1999	13	101
3	2012	11	101
4	2010	10	103
4	1995	10	103

[SACRUS]

 

76/67.  0.77 rain yesterday morning (0.14 / .53 evening) missed the worst which was north f this area.  Late summer heat and humidity today with more storms arriving later and that timing will determine how widespread 90s are today.  Gloomy start to the weekend with rain and storms Saturday (8/29).  Dryer and very nice Sunday (8/30) and Monday (8/31) similar to Wednesday (8/26) weather. 

 

By the start of the month the Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding west in the more classic Bermuda high position and Tue (9/1) we are warming up.  Wed (9/2) - Fri (9/5) next heatwave and shot at 90s potential before another brief cool down the first half of the labor day weekend.  Beyond there warmer air looks to return by labor day (9/7) and the subsequent week.  Tropics need to be watched in this period 9/9 - 913 EC / FL.  WAR nearby expanding west in spurts , WC ridge pushing into the plains and should set the stage for a very warm period in September.

[SACRUS]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was just unusual to have so many 95° days without reaching 100°.

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Max  Temperature
1	1955	14	100
2	2020	13	97
-	1999	13	101
3	2012	11	101
4	2010	10	103
4	1995	10	103

Warmer / more humid flow lots of WV capping temps and keeping overall warmth these past years.  Still wonder if there isnt a rogue triple digit looming in early September.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Warmer / more humid flow lots of WV capping temps and keeping overall warmth these past years.  Still wonder if there isnt a rogue triple digit looming in early September.

Yeah, it’s the orientation of the ridge axis allowing more onshore flow and humidity with the heat. The Bermuda High axis extending toward. SE New England has allowed the much more humid pattern during recent summers. Our summers with more 100° heat from 2010 to 2013 featured a flatter Bermuda High into the Southeast allowing more westerly flow here.

 

[donsutherland1]

This afternoon, the temperature rose into the middle 80s in New York City under mainly sunny skies. Four photos from The New York Botanical Garden:

[Will - Rutgers]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This afternoon, the temperature rose into the middle 80s in New York City under mainly sunny skies. Four photos from The New York Botanical Garden:

don't know what glass you're using but if you find yourself in the market for a nice macro lens, check out the 100mm Tokina--stupid sharp, great mechanics, built like a tank, and cheap.  my absolute favorite lens.

[psv88]

89 today, sneaky warm. I have had like 6-7 89s this summer

[bluewave]

This month was probably one of the warmest Eastern Trough patterns that we have had.
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Laura will likely exit off the Delmarva Peninsula late tomorrow night. The system has the potential to bring an area of 1"-3" rain with locally higher amounts across parts of Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula, along with another area with pockets of moderate to perhaps heavy rain along a frontal boundary to its north. The New York City area and adjacent suburbs could pick up 0.25"-0.75" rain.

August will likely end on a cool note before temperatures again return to above normal levels during the first week of September.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, providing a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.

Parts of the West continued to experience near record and record high temperatures. Select high temperatures included:

Death Valley: 115°,
Kingman, AZ: 105°
Lake Havasu City, AZ: 113°
Las Vegas: 106°
Needles, CA: 115°
Palm Springs, CA: 116°
Phoenix: 112°
Tucson: 107° (tied record set in 1998)
Yuma, AZ: 113°

Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature near 96.8°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 60% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall.

The SOI was +9.65.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.512.

On August 27, daily MJO data was unavailable.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. New York City has had 18 days on which the temperature reached 90° or above during July-August 2020.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°.

Summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°, which would tie 2020 as Central Park's 4th warmest summer with 1949, 1983, and 1993. At LaGuardia Airport, summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature of 79.4°. That would surpass the existing summer record of 79.2°, which was set in 2010.

Finally, on August 27, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.157 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 93% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.857 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.618 million square kilometers.

 

[SACRUS]

8/28

ACY: 91
PHL: 90
EWR: 89
LGA: 89
TTN: 88
BLM: 87
TEB: 87
New Brnswck: 87
ISP: 86
NYC: 85

[Cfa]

88/69 split today. 92/66 yesterday.

[forkyfork]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

This month was probably one of the warmest Eastern Trough patterns that we have had.
 

 

+2 is the new normal

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of August are averaging 75.5degs., or 2.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.9[77.3].         August should end at  +1.9[77.1].    To play it safe with this GFS, end at +1.6[76.8].

72*(96%RH)here at 6am, street wet, broken overcast.    73*(95%RH) at 7am.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

At 8:55 am, a batch of showers and thundershowers had moved into southwestern Connecticut. The area of rain was pushing northeastward. Additional showers and thundershowers are likely as the remnants of Laura approach the area.

Laura will likely exit off the Delmarva Peninsula tonight. The New York City area and adjacent suburbs could pick up 0.25"-0.75" rain. A few locations on Long Island could see some locally higher amounts as Laura begins to tap into Atlantic moisture.

August will end with cooler than normal temperatures, but the mercury will rebound early next week.

A flash flood watch will go into effect in Phoenix this afternoon and run through tomorrow. The extreme heat that has dominated much of July and August there will relax. A warmup is likely next week there.

[donsutherland1]

18 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

don't know what glass you're using but if you find yourself in the market for a nice macro lens, check out the 100mm Tokina--stupid sharp, great mechanics, built like a tank, and cheap.  my absolute favorite lens.

Thank you for the tip. I appreciate it.

[SACRUS]

78/72 and light rain.  0.16 in the bucket last 12 hours.  The majority of the rain showers and storms should slowly move out over the next few hours.  Some breaks in the clouds already to C and E - PA.  Some gorgeous weather Sunday (8/30) and Mon (8/31)  Drier and cooler with highs near 80s some 50s inland perhaps.  The Western Atlantic Ridge expands west  and builds into the classic Bermida high position as Warmth returns starting on Tues (9/1) and while guidance isnt as war,m as it was previous runs it still looks like 90s potential in the Wed (9/2) to Fri  (9/4)  before another brief 2 day cool down Labor Day weekend.

Beyond there EC ridging looks to establish towards 9/8 with trough pushing into the mid section.  Could see some heavy rain totals west of the region as ridging builds along the coast. Tropical threat FL / EC 9/8 - 9/13.

[donsutherland1]

Afternoon thoughts...

As of 2 pm, rainfall totals were as follows:

Atlantic City: 0.23”

Islip: 0.23”

New York City: 0.01”

Newark: None

Philadelphia: 0.10”

White Plains: 0.10”

An area of showers and thundershowers was moving mainly eastward across southeastern Pennsylvania with a few widely scattered showers elsewhere in Pennsylvania.

Overall prospects for rainfall in the New York City area have decreased. In general, New York City, Newark, and nearby suburbs will see 0.25” rain or less. Exceptions would be areas where thundershowers develop. Parts of Long Island could still pick up 0.50” or more. Western parts of the region could see the clouds begin to break early this evening.

[dWave]

Turning out to be a quite warm afternoon. Partly sunny 84/73. Also got my internet and cable back after t storm couple days ago

[doncat]

81° today with lots of clouds...0.01" rain.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds broke for sunshine this afternoon, the temperature rose above 80°, and a brisk breeze blew across the waters of the Long Island Sound.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will feature abundant sunshine with temperatures in the middle and upper 70s to perhaps around 80° in the region. August will likely end on a cool note before temperatures again return to above normal levels during the first week of September.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, providing a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. However, uncertainty about the possibility of more sustained cool shots has increased in recent days.

Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature near 96.8°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 68% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall.

The SOI was +18.63.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.838.

On August 28, daily MJO data was unavailable.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. New York City has had 18 days on which the temperature reached 90° or above during July-August 2020.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8°.

Summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°, which would tie 2020 as Central Park's 4th warmest summer with 1949, 1983, and 1993. At LaGuardia Airport, summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature of 79.5°. That would surpass the existing summer record of 79.2°, which was set in 2010.

Finally, on August 28, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.119 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 95% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.843 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.624 million square kilometers.

 

[SACRUS]

8/29

LGA: 84
EWR: 84
New Brnswck: 83
TEB: 83
ACY: 81
PHL: 81
TTN: 81
NYC: 81
ISP: 79
JFK: 79
BLM: 78

[doncat]

81/70 temp split today...so did add another 70+ min temp.