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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or about 3degs. AN.       This could mean 2degs. BN, because the GFS is off by +5 generally around here.

76*(95%RH) here at 6am, scuzzy sky.         81*(85%RH) by 1pm----variable fog for the last hour.

 

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Good Tuesday morning all,  No topic from me this morning. Will re-evaluate late this afternoon and beyond but for now...

I see isolated strong northeastward moving storms, from I95 northwestward, 2P-10P, some with tiny areas of 1-2" rain, and even one or 2  that might produce a severe weather report but not a widespread event, as far as I can tell.

There should be  pretty decent band of thunderstorms across central NYS this evening that may die out in se NYS, w CT and extreme nw NJ overnight? 

Wednesday-Thursday and now via the 06z/11 GFS include Friday into early Saturday.  Not enough model consistency for me to as yet, if ever, target topic 4"+ rains and/or more than 2 severe reports.   However, not out of the question for parts of the I95 corridor northwestward, but just too early for me to express any confidence. Modeling has become a little timid in it's 00z/11 model cycle (06z/11 GFS differs considerably wetter).  Even the SPC HREF, noted for more easily identifying big rainfall, is relatively modest through Wednesday afternoon.

I'll probably be off line 8A-2P.   736A/11

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Morning thoughts...

Overnight, the low temperature at LaGuardia Airport was 80 degrees. If that winds up as the daily low, that would be the record-tying 7th 80-degree minimum temperature. The record was set in 2002. Currently, 2020 is tied with 2006 and 2010 for second place with 6 such days.

Across the region, today will again see temperatures rise mainly into the upper 80s and lower 90s. With fairly high humidity, the heat index will very likely exceed 100 degrees in many parts of the region. 

 

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The warm minimum temperatures continue to be the big story as Don pointed out above. Our interior areas have had the most 65° or warmer low temperatures by August 10th. Areas closer  the coast have had near their highest number of 70°minimums  to date.

Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2020-08-10 37 1
2 2013-08-10 35 0
- 1975-08-10 35 0
3 2011-08-10 31 0
- 2006-08-10 31 1
- 1973-08-10 31 0
- 1949-08-10 31 0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2020-08-10 29 2
2 2018-08-10 26 2
- 2006-08-10 26 0
3 2013-08-10 23 5
- 2010-08-10 23 2
4 2014-08-10 21 0
- 2011-08-10 21 0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2020-08-10 45 1
2 2012-08-10 43 1
3 2010-08-10 42 1
4 2011-08-10 41 1
5 2006-08-10 40 0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2020-08-10 43 0
- 2011-08-10 43 0
2 2012-08-10 42 0
- 1994-08-10 42 0
3 2010-08-10 41 0
- 1988-08-10 41 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2020-08-10 45 0
- 2010-08-10 45 0
2 1908-08-10 43 0
3 1906-08-10 42 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2020-08-10 52 0
2 2010-08-10 51 0
- 2006-08-10 51 0
3 2012-08-10 49 0
4 2019-08-10 45 0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2020-08-10 43 0
2 2010-08-10 34 0
3 2013-08-10 27 1
4 2018-08-10 26 0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2020-08-10 29 4
- 2010-08-10 29 0
3 2013-08-10 28 0
4 2012-08-10 27 0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2013-08-10 28 0
2 2010-08-10 27 0
3 2020-08-10 26 0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10
Missing Count
1 2010-08-10 40 0
2 2012-08-10 36 0
- 1949-08-10 36 0
3 2020-08-10 35 0
- 2013-08-10 35 0
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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good Tuesday morning all,  No topic from me this morning. Will re-evaluate late this afternoon and beyond but for now...

I see isolated strong northeastward moving storms, from I95 northwestward, 2P-10P, some with tiny areas of 1-2" rain, and even one or 2  that might produce a severe weather report but not a widespread event, as far as I can tell.

There should be  pretty decent band of thunderstorms across central NYS this evening that may die out in se NYS, w CT and extreme nw NJ overnight? 

Wednesday-Thursday and now via the 06z/11 GFS include Friday into early Saturday.  Not enough model consistency for me to as yet, if ever, target topic 4"+ rains and/or more than 2 severe reports.   However, not out of the question for parts of the I95 corridor northwestward, but just too early for me to express any confidence. Modeling has become a little timid in it's 00z/11 model cycle (06z/11 GFS differs considerably wetter).  Even the SPC HREF, noted for more easily identifying big rainfall, is relatively modest through Wednesday afternoon.

I'll probably be off line 8A-2P.   736A/11

I always look forward to your posts 

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83 and steamy 75.  Low clouds and fog burning off and it seems like we're off to the races.  More 90s today especially in the hotter spots. Tomorrow storms arrive at some point in the afternoon so a toss up day for potnetial 90s and reaching / extending the heatwave.

Ridge builds into the Rockies with WAR shifting towards east of Bermuda.    Plenty of storms around in a rather stagnant air mass Thu / Fri before onshore flow build around Sat (8/15) and Sun (8/16). 

 

Mon (8/17) and Tue (8/18) warmer but still looks like opporunity for showers and popups each day.  Cooler air looks likely Wed 8/19 - Thu (8/20) will be interesting to see the extent of the reach.

 

Beyond there longer range.  Rockies ridge and heat will move east into the Plains and MidWest and similar pattern will push heat into the area with the strongest heat liekly coming in 2 days spurts for a hot close to the month.

 

 

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On 8/10/2020 at 11:43 AM, Will - Rutgers said:

Too bad it's humid subtropical and not Mediterranean.

Wonder what kind of crops we'll be able to grow here in 20 years.

The development that my mom lives at in Bedminster have already been planting crape myrtle over the last couple of years. They seem to be thriving well.

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Good Tuesday afternoon everyone,

I saw the 1 SVR for the ne NJ coast.  Won't surprise at a nice line of vigorous convection drifting into the NYC forum coverage area after midnight and dying out vicinity NYC-LI at dawn Wednesday per the midday HRRR  Thereafter,  new convection late Wednesday along the front with uncertainty on amounts-placement late Wed-Sat.

The very wet GFS op of near 8" here by Monday seems to be far too wet as compared to the 12z/11 UK, GGEM, EC op runs. The GEFS/EPS ensembles are generally ~1" NYC.  So, showers and storms are coming, a little bit today, late tonight and more late Wed-Fri or Sat.  How much??  For now no topic. 

I see the heat wave may not make it, even for EWR?? 348P/11

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The EPS has a break in the 90° heat for a while after tomorrow. Plenty of onshore flow coming up with high pressure to the north and lows to the south. The actual rainfall will probably be determined in the short term by where the weak fronts set up.

 

97EBA3FF-2C35-48BB-91D8-240C7554C147.thumb.png.90b1edc1b6d9bb9ab287d7c3212643fd.png
43BF2479-1BFF-42F8-B217-C480495118C4.thumb.png.188aef7ccbb3a324b9280f70caf13656.png

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