Rtd208 Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 Current temp 95/DP 69/RH 43% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 92/72/100 here...no HI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I have a few on my list lol..... 1804 (snowicane that occurred that October), 1836 (supposedly 100 inches of snow fell in NYC and PHL), 1869 (snowfall), 1888 (for the March blizzard), 1896 (cold January blizzard 2-3 ft of snow with temps near 0), 1898-99 (extreme winter), 1910 (historic April snowstorm that dropped almost 20 inches in Philly), 1916-18 (extreme winters), 1933-34 (historic winter), 1936 (dust bowl peak), 1938 (hurricane), 1944 (extreme summer and hurricane), 1947-48 (extreme winter followed by extreme summer), 1953 (extreme late season heat), 1954 (extreme tropical season for the east coast), 1956 (extreme March snowstorm), 1958 (extreme snowstorm that dropped 30" in Babylon), 1960-61 (Donna followed by an extreme winter), 1966-67 (extreme summer followed by a big snowfall season), 1977-78 (because I was too young to remember it well.) Actually the odds are better for a snowy winter, if your previous summer was hot..Don't forget July 95 and then the upcoming winter..and as you mentioned 66 and 77 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: Actually the odds are better for a snowy winter, if your previous summer was hot..Don't forget July 95 and then the upcoming winter..and as you mentioned 66 and 77 it works out sometimes, it depends on the type of pattern we're in naturally. Also the extreme summer of 1993 was followed by a snowy and icy winter in 1993-94. And there was also the extreme summer of 2010 followed by 2010-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 89/72 Wantage, dying thunderstorm west of us in PA and 30VIL probably just n of Lords Valley in ne PA near I84 heading for Port Jervis? 355P/10 50Vil n of MPO.has to have hail in it and could be a pretty good gust for no flow. ET under 38K. 410P/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 4 hours ago, bluewave said: I will take the higher dew points and wet year round over the severe droughts that Mediterranean climates have been experiencing recently. OK, fair point. 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's high time humanity started tinkering with the environment to fix it rather than just let it all go downhill. Looks like we will be doing the same on Mars within the next few decades, as NASA just sent a rover there that converts CO2 to O2. It's bankable that large-scale environmental engineering projects will need to be undertaken by countries and consortiums of countries over the next several decades. It goes well beyond global warming, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Ran/walked a 5K at Rutgers around lunchtime at the Busch track. I am trying to get myself used to exerting in that heat but man it gets stifling. Now 93/71/100. In my apartment with the windows open and the air off and just letting myself sweat to death. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said: Ran/walked a 5K at Rutgers around lunchtime at the Busch track. I am trying to get myself used to exerting in that heat but man it gets stifling. Now 93/71/100. In my apartment with the windows open and the air off and just letting myself sweat to death. I'm in the Poconos right now and it's hot and humid here and no a/c (and no way to install it either since the type of windows here do not support it.) I have all my fans running and took my shirt off to feel better. The plus of being here is that it cools off rapidly at night no matter how hot it is during the day, we almost always make it down into the 60s at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm in the Poconos right now and it's hot and humid here and no a/c (and no way to install it either since the type of windows here do not support it.) I have all my fans running and took my shirt off to feel better. The plus of being here is that it cools off rapidly at night no matter how hot it is during the day, we almost always make it down into the 60s at night. The days are tough but the nights are brutal with this airmass. I just cannot sleep like this, and the apartment retains the heat of the day. Country living is so much more pleasant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Current temp 88/DP 77/RH 59% High of 96 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 94/74 temp split today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 High for the day was 96 here. Current temp 94/DP 70/RH 45% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 High was 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Wantage NJ 740'MSL MAX 89 7P 87/73. Maybe we'll get lucky and get the dying remnants of the showers and storms in se NYS and ne PA? Watching these for Ct but expecting all to diminish and end by 10 or 11P. Considering a broad topic of heavy rainers and iso svr/FF Tue aft-FRi but nothing hot right now. UKMET has quite a bit of qpf, as does WPC D1-3. I do see 18z HRDPS seems to have a pretty good handle on what's going on right now (23z/10)...much much better than the HRRR and NAM 3K. Probably my last post of the evening. Rereviewing Tuesday. Walt 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Under abundant sunshine, the temperature topped out in the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s across the region. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 93° Boston: 94° Burlington: 90° Harrisburg: 93° Islip: 89° New York City-JFK: 87° New York City-LGA: 95° New York City-NYC: 92° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 92° Washington, DC: 92° 90° Days for Select Cities (through August 10): Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 21 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 38 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 12 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 19 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 27 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 6 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 10 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 29 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 17 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 26 (2019: 28 days) Philadelphia: 30 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 39 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 21 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 21 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Very warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are likely for tomorrow. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. The SOI was +13.47. On August 6, the SOI was +25.73. That was the highest figure since October 14, 2018 when the SOI was +27.20. In all three August cases where the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75°C or colder, a La Niña winter followed. The most recent such case was August 2010. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.182. On August 9, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.261 (RMM). The August 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.625. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at such a high amplitude is uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 6 hours ago, doncat said: Yeah some stations hit 80 in Feb. 2017...But afaik not on xmas 2015...High here that day was 61°. My mistake, it Christmas eve 2015, and the high was 72° according to my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: The days are tough but the nights are brutal with this airmass. I just cannot sleep like this, and the apartment retains the heat of the day. Country living is so much more pleasant. Sooner rather than later they are going to have to start to build housing to match our new climate...I would go for what they have in the SW where the heat accumulated during the day escapes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Rjay said: High was 90 JFK? I thought it was only 88 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Under abundant sunshine, the temperature topped out in the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s across the region. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 93° Boston: 94° Burlington: 90° Harrisburg: 93° Islip: 89° New York City-JFK: 87° New York City-LGA: 95° New York City-NYC: 92° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 92° Washington, DC: 92° 90° Days for Select Cities (through August 10): Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 21 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 38 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 12 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 19 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 27 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 6 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 10 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 29 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 17 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 26 (2019: 28 days) Philadelphia: 30 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 39 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 21 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 21 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Very warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are likely for tomorrow. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. The SOI was +13.47. On August 6, the SOI was +25.73. That was the highest figure since October 14, 2018 when the SOI was +27.20. In all three August cases where the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75°C or colder, a La Niña winter followed. The most recent such case was August 2010. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.182. On August 9, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.261 (RMM). The August 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.625. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at such a high amplitude is uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°. Don thanks for the JFK and Allentown data. I think the Allentown data applies to my Poconos location (I'm only one county north of there right now), but just for comparison's sake do you have 90 degree data for Mt Pocono and Scranton also? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don thanks for the JFK and Allentown data. I think the Allentown data applies to my Poconos location (I'm only one county north of there right now), but just for comparison's sake do you have 90 degree data for Mt Pocono and Scranton also? Thanks! Scranton has had 22 such days this year vs. 12 last year. Mount Pocono has had none so far this year and none last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Scranton has had 22 such days this year vs. 12 last year. Mount Pocono has had none so far this year and none last year. wow more than even Allentown, thanks Don! Any reason why Providence was able to reach 100 this year and we haven't (and even DC hasn't.) Was there a downsloping wind at Providence on the day it happened there and an onshore one here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, Uniblab said: My mistake, it Christmas eve 2015, and the high was 72° according to my station. Ok I made a mistake also lol...Hi here was 70°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow more than even Allentown, thanks Don! Any reason why Providence was able to reach 100 this year and we haven't (and even DC hasn't.) Was there a downsloping wind at Providence on the day it happened there and an onshore one here? The pattern has favored greater warmth to the north. For example, Burlington has had more 90 degree days than Central Park this year and it has the 4th highest figure on record. Caribou has its second highest such figure on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The pattern has favored greater warmth to the north. For example, Burlington has had more 90 degree days than Central Park this year and it has the 4th highest figure on record. Caribou has its second highest such figure on record. it's amazing that even coastal locations to our NE can see higher numbers like that....I think the last time before this that PVD hit 100 was the widespread extreme heat of July 2011. We were all well over 100 on that day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: JFK? I thought it was only 88 there. 91 at FRG. 90 at my place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: 91 at FRG. 90 at my place. Yeah as we were trying to tell someone the other day, FRG and ISP aren't on the beach or even the south shore lol. They have more of an inland feel, especially in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 8/10 LGA: 95 EWR: 94 New Brnswick: 93 TEB: 92 NYC: 92 BLM: 92 TTN: 92 PHL: 92 ACY: 90 ISP: 89 JFK: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 92/73 split here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 91/72 here. 0.14” from a pop up shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I have a few on my list lol..... 1804 (snowicane that occurred that October), 1836 (supposedly 100 inches of snow fell in NYC and PHL), 1869 (snowfall), 1888 (for the March blizzard), 1896 (cold January blizzard 2-3 ft of snow with temps near 0), 1898-99 (extreme winter), 1910 (historic April snowstorm that dropped almost 20 inches in Philly), 1916-18 (extreme winters), 1933-34 (historic winter), 1936 (dust bowl peak), 1938 (hurricane), 1944 (extreme summer and hurricane), 1947-48 (extreme winter followed by extreme summer), 1953 (extreme late season heat), 1954 (extreme tropical season for the east coast), 1956 (extreme March snowstorm), 1958 (extreme snowstorm that dropped 30" in Babylon), 1960-61 (Donna followed by an extreme winter), 1966-67 (extreme summer followed by a big snowfall season), 1977-78 (because I was too young to remember it well.) some 1800's snowstorms... 1857 http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/ 1857... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030213/1857-01-20/ed-1/seq-5/ 1867... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/ 1872 http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352788 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352790 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352791 1869...snowstorm... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-8/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-4/ 1877...snowstorm... http://chroniclingam...-03/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-02/ed-1/seq-8/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60725875 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1877-01-03/ed-1/seq-6/ 1859...16" of snow... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1859-01-05/ed-1/seq-8/ 1836 big snow... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/ 1879 foot of snow http://chroniclingam...-17/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1879-01-17/ed-1/seq-3/ 1867... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/ 1855 snowstorm... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1855-02-10/ed-1/seq-1/ 1897 http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ 1899...... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0816.pdf http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-7/ 1899... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-3/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf 1867... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-02-22/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1867-02-22/ed-1/seq-4/ 1894 storm http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ 1894 http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/ 1888 http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50437841 http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf 1896 http://chroniclingam...-17/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50337497 1892 http://chroniclingam...-19/ed-1/seq-5/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50461371 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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