August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[FPizz]

Just now, Uniblab said:

I remember a few years ago that it hit 80 in my backyard on Christmas day. 

Don't remind us of that! 

[doncat]

13 minutes ago, Uniblab said:

I remember a few years ago that it hit 80 in my backyard on Christmas day. 

On SI? Highest temp i ever had on Christmas day is a 64° reading. Had a 70° reading on xmas eve afternoon in 2015.

[STORMANLI]

74f Christmas 2015

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, Uniblab said:

I remember a few years ago that it hit 80 in my backyard on Christmas day. 

I think that might have been Dec 2015 when we had our historically hot December!  And then over 30 inches of snow in a single storm in Feb and even below zero on V-day!  And then I remember an 80 in Feb and the bugs all came out to party ugh!

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I like the droughts more, as the higher dew points result in breathing difficulties and more pollution.  When are we going to resume our streak of 100+ summers?

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Maximum Temperature
1	2010	80.7	101
2	2011	79.8	103
3	2013	79.5	100
4	2020	79.3	97
5	2019	78.8	99
6	1999	78.7	102
-	1993	78.7	101
7	2016	78.6	98
-	1983	78.6	100
-	1949	78.6	98
8	2015	78.4	95
-	2012	78.4	99
9	1994	78.1	93
10	2002	77.8	99

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I like the droughts more, as the higher dew points result in breathing difficulties and more pollution.  When are we going to resume our streak of 100+ summers?

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Maximum Temperature
1	2010	80.7	101
2	2011	79.8	103
3	2013	79.5	100
4	2020	79.3	97
5	2019	78.8	99
6	1999	78.7	102
-	1993	78.7	101
7	2016	78.6	98
-	1983	78.6	100
-	1949	78.6	98
8	2015	78.4	95
-	2012	78.4	99
9	1994	78.1	93
10	2002	77.8	99

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I like the droughts more, as the higher dew points result in breathing difficulties and more pollution.  When are we going to resume our streak of 100+ summers?

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Maximum Temperature
1	2010	80.7	101
2	2011	79.8	103
3	2013	79.5	100
4	2020	79.3	97
5	2019	78.8	99
6	1999	78.7	102
-	1993	78.7	101
7	2016	78.6	98
-	1983	78.6	100
-	1949	78.6	98
8	2015	78.4	95
-	2012	78.4	99
9	1994	78.1	93
10	2002	77.8	99

 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Few decent sized CU distant e-s of Wantage. Otherwise, no sign of buildups near Wantage - different here than yesterday but maybe something isolated will happen toward the NJ coast later this afternoon?  

Fwiw...posted on tropical forum and RTD transferred over a loop from Eric Blake using Levi's Trop Tidbits... animation of Atlantic Basin shear changes with MJO passage ~ 8/20.  It's modeling and so maybe timing is off slightly but activity changes appear on the way for Atlantic Basin. Normally the Atlantic Basin TC season gets active about that time. 146P/10

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Maximum Temperature
1	2010	80.7	101
2	2011	79.8	103
3	2013	79.5	100
4	2020	79.3	97
5	2019	78.8	99
6	1999	78.7	102
-	1993	78.7	101
7	2016	78.6	98
-	1983	78.6	100
-	1949	78.6	98
8	2015	78.4	95
-	2012	78.4	99
9	1994	78.1	93
10	2002	77.8	99

 

 

 

 

2010-2013 those were the good old years of record number of 90 degree days and peaks in the 100s ;-) I guess I'm asking when are we going to start  seeing stronger Bermuda Highs force their way inland to allow for more downsloping winds and longer streaks of 90+ days like we saw in 1993 and 2010 as well as peaks in the 100s?  Next year (if the 11 yr peak of the solar cycle is correct?)  What has been causing the Bermuda high to have this weird orientation that is pushing the hot air farther to the north and even allowing Providence, RI to have 100 degree highs, while DC, PHL and EWR dont?  Did PVD have a land breeze that day they hit 100 degrees?

Wow... JFK had their three hottest months in 2010, 2011 and 2013 (and the only ones that averaged near or above 80?)  I see LGA had their record hottest month this year, was LGA less hot in 2010, 2011, and 2013?

 

 

 

 

[doncat]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think that might have been Dec 2015 when we had our historically hot December!  And then over 30 inches of snow in a single storm in Feb and even below zero on V-day!  And then I remember an 80 in Feb and the bugs all came out to party ugh!

 

Yeah some stations hit 80 in Feb. 2017...But afaik not on xmas 2015...High here that day was 61°.

[forkyfork]

the new thing is getting top ten warm summer months just from consistent slightly above average temperatures 

[doncat]

Back on track...93/72 currently. 

[dmillz25]

5 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah some stations hit 80 in Feb. 2017...But afaik not on xmas 2015...High here that day was 61°.

Then it snowed 3 weeks later lol

[Cfa]

90/75/100 here with sporadic raindrops.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the new thing is getting top ten warm summer months just from consistent slightly above average temperatures 

I hope we can have more summers like 2010-2013, that was the peak of the heat here.  Remember 108 at EWR?!

 

[Cfa]

2010 was legendary.

[forkyfork]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I hope we can have more summers like 2010-2013, that was the peak of the heat here.  Remember 108 at EWR?!

 

i think it has to do with the slowing jet stream. classic heat blasts with EML's have been hard to come by

[WarrenCtyWx]

It's interesting that the "big ticket" (ala July 2010, July 2011, August 2001, etc.)  heat wave has been so elusive since 2012 or so, despite the anomalous warmth during most summers.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i think it has to do with the slowing jet stream. classic heat blasts with EML's have been hard to come by

Yeah, I'm a big time weather history buff and I remember reading that some of our most widespread and longlasting heatwaves started with a Sonoran heat blast in the SW.....the Weather Almanac diagrammed the amazing 1980 heat blast that lasted over two months (!)  It was horribly tragic in St Louis where thousands died....here in NY we had two months straight of mean temps around 80 (July and August)...I believe August 1980 was our hottest August on record.  The heat persisted here until the third week of Sept.....that was a true summerwide heat blast that began in the third week of June here and ended in the third week of September.  The entire astronomical summer had an omega block type of jetstream with an extra wide middle (hot) part, the only parts of the CONUS that were north of the jet stream were the extreme Pac NW and northern ME.

The slowing jetstream may also be responsible for the extreme (3"+) rainfall events that are on the rise as well as slowly moving TC we have been seeing in the South.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Cfa said:

2010 was legendary.

the 1995-96 of summers.  Prior to that it was 1993 and before that 1966 (complete with a historic drought.)

1983 also needs to be mentioned because of the extreme heat and humidity combo that was not seen again until the 2010s.

 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

It's interesting that the "big ticket" (ala July 2010, July 2011, August 2001, etc.)  heat wave has been so elusive since 2012 or so, despite the anomalous warmth during most summers.

Too humid.  You're not getting 98+ with 75-78 dews

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2010-2013 those were the good old years of record number of 90 degree days and peaks in the 100s ;-) I guess I'm asking when are we going to start  seeing stronger Bermuda Highs force their way inland to allow for more downsloping winds and longer streaks of 90+ days like we saw in 1993 and 2010 as well as peaks in the 100s? 

That’s a very good question. There has been an unmistakable shift in the July ridge positions from 2010-2013 to 2018 to 2020. Notice the stronger rigging now over SE Canada and New England. This allows more onshore flow and higher dew points with the heat vs 2010 to 2013.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a very good question. There has been an unmistakable shift in the July ridge positions from 2010-2013 to 2018 to 2020. Notice the stronger rigging now over SE Canada and New England. This allows more onshore flow and higher dew points with the heat vs 2010 to 2013.

 

 

and possibly may be the reason we're seeing more east coast TC threats  (although 2011 and 2012 saw Irene and Sandy).  2011 may be one of the most extreme years I can remember, from 108 in July to record rains in August from Irene and a stalled front that dumped 10" of rain.  1983 and 2011 were likely the two most extreme years we've had both for rainfall and for heat.

 

Do you think the reason for the extreme shift you've depicted was the super el nino of 2016?  Why and how do you think it happened because of that and why do you think it didn't happen after the 1982-83 super el nino (which seems to have been similar to it in terms of warm December followed by historic February snow?) or the 1997-98 super el nino for that matter.

[WarrenCtyWx]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Too humid.  You're not getting 98+ with 75-78 dews

I definitely agree most of the time, but didn't July 15, 1995 achieve that feat?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I definitely agree most of the time, but didn't July 15, 1995 achieve that feat?

highest heat index I've seen in the metro.....the peak was around 130 in PHL if I remember correctly, though LGA was up there too.

We almost made it to 100 last July with the back to back 99 at JFK with heat indices near 120.

 

[Cfa]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 1995-96 of summers.  Prior to that it was 1993 and before that 1966 (complete with a historic drought.)

1983 also needs to be mentioned because of the extreme heat and humidity combo that was not seen again until the 2010s.

 

I’d like to go back in time and experience 1966 (weather-wise not socially). 1936 is another one.

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Too humid.  You're not getting 98+ with 75-78 dews

Unless you’re in Long Island.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think the reason for the extreme shift you've depicted was the super el nino of 2016?  Why and how do you think it happened because of that and why do you think it didn't happen after the 1982-83 super el nino (which seems to have been similar to it in terms of warm December followed by historic February snow?) or the 1997-98 super el nino for that matter.

The world is a much warmer place now than after the 82-83 and 97-98  super El Niños. So the regional climate patterns have been different. But you can see the Euro going right back to the SE Canada high and onshore flow by next weekend.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The world is a much warmer place now than after the last two super El Niños. So the regional climate patterns have been different. But you can see the Euro going right back to the SE Canada high and onshore flow by next weekend.

 

 

It almost seems like the anomalous heat is working its way south from the North Pole (remember the Siberia temp of 100.4?) and the high humidity is working it's way north from the southeast and both are meeting right over us!

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I’d like to go back in time and experience 1966 (weather-wise not socially). 1936 is another one.

Unless you’re in Long Island.

I have a few on my list lol..... 1804 (snowicane that occurred that October), 1836 (supposedly 100 inches of snow fell in NYC and PHL), 1869 (snowfall), 1888 (for the March blizzard), 1896 (cold January blizzard 2-3 ft of snow with temps near 0), 1898-99 (extreme winter), 1910 (historic April snowstorm that dropped almost 20 inches in Philly), 1916-18 (extreme winters), 1933-34 (historic winter), 1936 (dust bowl peak), 1938 (hurricane), 1944 (extreme summer and hurricane), 1947-48 (extreme winter followed by extreme summer),  1953 (extreme late season heat), 1954 (extreme tropical season for the east coast), 1956 (extreme March snowstorm), 1958 (extreme snowstorm that dropped 30" in Babylon), 1960-61 (Donna followed by an extreme winter), 1966-67 (extreme summer followed by a big snowfall season), 1977-78 (because I was too young to remember it well.)

[Brian5671]

That big high over Newfoundland is trouble if a hurricane gets into the right spot...