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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Clouds broke for sunshine this afternoon and the temperature soared into the upper 80s. A sea breeze developed late in the afternoon.

Euripides
Euripides

Pic from Red Bank sent from my sister. Not her picture but sent from a friend who is a Police officer in Red bank  

donsutherland1
donsutherland1

This afternoon, the temperature rose into the middle 80s in New York City under mainly sunny skies. Four photos from The New York Botanical Garden:

Posted Images

CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

New August hourly record high to go with all the records we had back in July.

4D5881C0-7016-44B6-A83D-AAD812969459.thumb.png.1f8e64aff168da234762b105663fa9eb.png
9CA410B5-1B47-463E-8CBD-56CBE70974D6.thumb.png.aac50ccd7cf69eaec1b384331b19c9bd.png

 

Are you sure about that 88*DP on Aug. 19, 1997?      The 2M High T that day was not even 88*.     Maybe a different year?     ISLIP was 59/75 that day.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Are you sure about that 88*DP on Aug. 19, 1997?      The 2M High T that day was not even 88*.     Maybe a different year?     ISLIP was 59/75 that day.

That’s just some bad data that slipped in there. The US record is close to that.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/record-dew-point-temperatures.html

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Today, temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 2):

Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 20 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 36 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 8 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 18 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 26 (2019: 33 days)
Islip: 6 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 10 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 26 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 16 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 23 (2019: 28 days)
Philadelphia: 28 (2019: 35 days)
Washington, DC: 38 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 19 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 19 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Thunderstorms brought excessive rainfall to parts of Pennsylvania today. At Reading, 5.89" rain fell. That smashed the daily record of 2.62", which was set in 1973 and the August daily rainfall mark of 4.52" from August 22, 1888. Parts of that region will be in for additional heavy rainfall from Isaias' passage.

Isaias will bring heavy rainfall as it moves northward across the Chesapeake Bay, through New Jersey and into southern New York State en route to northern New England and then Canada Tuesday into Wednesday. A general 2"-4" rainfall is likely along and west of a line extending from Poughkeepsie to Wilmington, DE. There will likely be an area of 3"-6" rainfall with locally higher amounts in a portion of the region including Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, DC.

Select rainfall estimates based on a weighted multi-model blend include:

Allentown: 3"-6"
Baltimore: 3"-6"
Harrisburg: 2"-4"
Islip: 1"-3"
New York City: 2”-4”
Newark: 2”-4”
Philadelphia: 3”-6”
Washington, DC: 3”-6”

The UKMET remained an outlier with extreme amounts of precipitation in parts of the region and was largely discounted. The 18z GFS diverged from earlier runs with a much drier outcome from Newark and eastward.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was -4.43.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.338.

On August 1, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.938 (RMM). The July 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.055.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Finally, on August 1, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.718 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was the lowest figure on record for August 1. The previous record was 5.905 million square kilometers, which was set just last year. Arctic sea ice extent remains well on a trajectory that will take it to a minimum extent below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record.

 

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

The next 8 days are averaging 83degs., or 7degs. AN.

TROPICAL STORM     W  A  R  N  I  N  G    IN EFFECT!          Looks mostly like a 6 to 9 hour affair of SE>S>SW winds of up to 60mph gusts.       This is from 1pm-10pm tomorrow afternoon.       Rain is up to 2" for the City, from Tues AM to Wed AM.

79*(65%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast.          86*(62%RH) by 4pm.

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coastalplainsnowman

coastalplainsnowman

Posted
Posted

General discussion question - in the other thread (which I don't consider myself qualified to post in) says isaias is forecast to go over land *and* maintain/increase in strength as it heads toward NYC metro?  In years of watching these things I don't think I've ever seen that happen - even more rare than 'wraparound-change-back-to-snow' of any significance.   Are folks buying that this will both a) run that far inland and b) increase in strength and wind speed?  Thanks.

 

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

General discussion question - in the other thread (which I don't consider myself qualified to post in) says isaias is forecast to go over land *and* maintain/increase in strength as it heads toward NYC metro?  In years of watching these things I don't think I've ever seen that happen - even more rare than 'wraparound-change-back-to-snow' of any significance.   Are folks buying that this will both a) run that far inland and b) increase in strength and wind speed?  Thanks.

 

Yes. The land is very warm and in many of the areas it's going to run through also quite wet from the last few weeks of heavy rains. There should be plenty of heat energy to be gained from the warm land and it will be wrapping in lots of moisture off a very warm ocean just offshore. It's going to be an interesting one to watch.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Morning thoughts...

Isaias remains on track to pass through the region later tomorrow into tomorrow night. The guidance has shifted a little to the west overnight, but the general idea of passage over the Chesapeake Bay across New Jersey and then into southern/central New York State still remains reasonable.

With some interaction with a trough, the potential exists for a period of baroclinic deepening. This deepening will likely help the fast-moving system retain a measure of its strength as it passes through the region.

Rainfall amounts from New York City eastward will likely need to be reduced, based both on Isaias' track and somewhat faster forward motion than had been forecast yesterday. An area of 3"-6" rain still looks reasonable, especially for cities such as Allentown, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, DC.

In its wake, the western Atlantic ridge that helped steer it along its inland course will likely result in a rebound of temperatures. The predominantly warmer than normal pattern will continue. No significant cool shots appear likely through at least the first half of August.

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Dark Star

Dark Star

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yes. The land is very warm and in many of the areas it's going to run through also quite wet from the last few weeks of heavy rains. There should be plenty of heat energy to be gained from the warm land and it will be wrapping in lots of moisture off a very warm ocean just offshore. It's going to be an interesting one to watch.

 

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Isaias remains on track to pass through the region later tomorrow into tomorrow night. The guidance has shifted a little to the west overnight, but the general idea of passage over the Chesapeake Bay across New Jersey and then into southern/central New York State still remains reasonable.

With some interaction with a trough, the potential exists for a period of baroclinic deepening. This deepening will likely help the fast-moving system retain a measure of its strength as it passes through the region.

Rainfall amounts from New York City eastward will likely need to be reduced, based both on Isaias' track and somewhat faster forward motion than had been forecast yesterday. An area of 3"-6" rain still looks reasonable, especially for cities such as Allentown, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, DC.

In its wake, the western Atlantic ridge that helped steer it along its inland course will likely result in a rebound of temperatures. The predominantly warmer than normal pattern will continue. No significant cool shots appear likely through at least the first half of August.

As a closed low opens up, much energy is released.  This energy many times is translated to speed of movement of the system.  I would think it would be difficult to project if this "opening of the closed low" would intensify the system for both precipitation amounts and wind.  I always feel wind is over forecasted.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

81/64 feels 40 degrees cooler.  Humidity to build back in today.  Warmer spots should grab another 90 (low 90s today) ahead of Isaias.  Still think we are looking on the wetter side 2 - 4 inches widespread but leave the detail to the numerous threads we have actively discussing the impacts.  Beyond Isaias Wed - Thu looks like really good beach days near normal less humid on Thu.   By 8/12 the WAR has positioned back east with a strong Rockies ridge. Caught between these ridges will lead to chances for storms and temps slightly warmer than normal  through 8/12.

 

8/13 and beyond  Part 3 of onshore flow followed by high heat.  Rockies ridge build immensely into the Plains north of us causing return E/ENE flow for a period.  This should translate to near normal temps and high humidity days when winds have a more SE component.  Stronger and more sustained heat towards the end of the period as WAR expands west with its retrograde and Plains ridge shifts east and winds get us a more sw flow.  Looking like second half of August scorcher may be in the cards.  

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