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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just in time to squash/grind any shortwaves come winter?

Lol - ... heh, it's more of a subtlety than all that ...but sort of -

It does present a larger --> smaller scaled neggie interference pattern, tho.  It's not so much preventative, that interference is changing the behavior of daily events.   

I almost think of it as a 'torque budget' in the atmosphere, one that is based entirely upon the very real mathematical governing principle of the coriolis parameter ... and the geophysical limitation that the Earth only spins so fast as a constant in the mechanics ...  blah blah popsicle headache.

But, what that means is that if the velocity is screaming at the scale of large R-waves, there is less left over or available to corkscrew at the local scales - if that makes any sense.  If you go back and look at all the bigs juggernaut bombs of history, the majority of them ( but not all ...) tend to transpire in regimes where you have less fast flow and more buckled flow

Another way... If the x(y)-coordinate velocity(s) exceed the z-coordinate evacuation (or upward momentum), the system has difficulty maintaining a columnar structure in the troposphere and blows up into increasing WAA favored structures...   - which conceptually that should make sloppy sense per common experience - it's harder to go around corners at higher velocity?  

The thing is... I have brought this up in the past ...this morphology ...and folks seem to get offended. Like I am taking down their snow chances...  Noooo... I know this morphology is taking place - I have no idea what this means to seasonal snow totals, frankly...  But, I do suggest that more icing precipitates out of overrunning scenarios than snow... that's just duh. 

That's a whole 'nother distinction therein too... Like, the fast overall flows don't favor stagnant set ups... So, the 1998 type of 4 day ice storms are probably less likely to occur. Perhaps more similar to what happened in 2017 when we had three .4" sub warning but substantive glazing events...each in and out in 6 hours in the interior.  That sort of turn over quick rip is more likely ...  We've also seen increased storm translation speeds in general... I mean, that 958 mb hyper bomb that detonated off the Carolinas a couple years ago, and shot SE of the Cape just out of reach to really cause National Guard notice is an example... It's odd to see such exotic depths moving so quickly ... we usually need a cutting system that benefits from interior diabatic heat release to really core out the atmosphere  ...1978 ... etc... But, that exotically deep event was benefiting off the scream jet ... having successfully coupled with the diffluence it created... There was another like this last year up near NS/NF traffic zone... 948 or something terrifying of 'Cane province in white cloth... with black eyes and stoic expression at the sight of suffering...   The problem is, at high velocities... coupling fluid mechanically gets narrowed... 

I'm conceptually wandering ... 

Point is, I'm not saying that shearing out and ripping open S/W's ...if not absorbing them in the high velocity maelstrom, should 86 winter... I'm saying I am anticipating seeing the same shit going on this year.  

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

It will be pretty cold aloft with temps around +4c@H8 so its possible they see frozen up there, We've been 7-10'd pretty regularly here all month, Yesterday we moved into the fringe category, Maybe today is the day we see steadier showers, We shall see.

What I'm seeing so far is bright echoes over the northern half of Maine, with them moving almost due east.  For a forecast of early afternoon convection, upstream radar is not encouraging.

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Just now, tamarack said:

What I'm seeing so far is bright echoes over the northern half of Maine, with them moving almost due east.  For a forecast of early afternoon convection, upstream radar is not encouraging.

Yeah, I see all the early convection is up in the county, I'm pretty skeptical of seeing anything of any significance down here later, Looks like it will be our last chance for any moisture until this weekend.

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I see all the early convection is up in the county, I'm pretty skeptical of seeing anything of any significance down here later, Looks like it will be our last chance for any moisture until this weekend.

Early GFS has about 1.5" for the weekend event.  Time for the qpf-reduction process to start?

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

88/70.  Broke back my ass.

Lol... 

Models are exerting weight though - 

They aren't like, "making it up" - haha.  I mean, in theory that is - sometimes I wonder if there isn't a secret parameterization of the runs to mute global warming appeals at times...because the models seem to go out of their way to normalize hot looks using suspiciously subtle means ...  

Excluding the world conductors of conspiracy in weather forecast model possibility for the moment ... there's got to be something in the physics beeing sniffed out if the GFS is going to be creating pigs like that vortex it sees D11 ... I was extolling some ideas on why in my usual unable-to-be-read loquacity a few posts ago..  

Anyway, it does near ...

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Early GFS has about 1.5" for the weekend event.  Time for the qpf-reduction process to start?

It will depend on how far north the rems get, They had looked to stay quite far to south when i last looked, But i don't follow models very closely this time of year as i drop my subscription ones and just kept the pivotal script.

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

BDL record watch:

Noon obs: 86°F

4°F from the record!!!!

They went NW and mixed out a bit...temp went up to 87 and dew down to 58. But bouncing around 85-86 now. I wonder if the 850 temps already hit peak and are slowly dropping. 

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11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

72/62

Where’s the big heat?

I'm up in Pittsburg for the week, clouds with off and on showers the past 2 days. I don't think it's gotten much above 70, mid-60s and showers now.

Looks pretty chilly the next couple days, but I'll take that over rain on vacation. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They went NW and mixed out a bit...temp went up to 87 and dew down to 58. But bouncing around 85-86 now. I wonder if the 850 temps already hit peak and are slowly dropping. 

ahhh good call. Looking at mesoanalysis that seems to be the case. IIRC when looking at today's convective setup one thing I kinda noticed was it looked like the 850 front was slightly ahead of sfc front.

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