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Hurricane Isaías

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That's one hell of a wave axis. lol... I mean, have we ever had closed vortex genesis at hurricane intensity? I'm being facetious. Still... lol.

 

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First sonde. Looks like a bit of a burst at 700mb. Not much lower. 
 

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb
Coordinates: 16.1N 58.8W
Location: 180 statute miles (290 km) to the ENE (72°) from Roseau, Dominica.
Marsden Square: 042 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1012mb (29.89 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.6°C (83.5°F) About 24°C (75°F) 45° (from the NE) 18 knots (21 mph)
1000mb 110m (361 ft) 27.6°C (81.7°F) About 23°C (73°F) 50° (from the NE) 26 knots (30 mph)
925mb 796m (2,612 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 19.3°C (67°F) 55° (from the NE) 30 knots (35 mph)
850mb 1,528m (5,013 ft) 18.6°C (65.5°F) 14.6°C (58°F) 75° (from the ENE) 33 knots (38 mph)
700mb 3,182m (10,440 ft) 11.6°C (52.9°F) About -2°C (28°F) 80° (from the E) 54 knots (62 mph)
500mb 5,900m (19,357 ft) -4.5°C (23.9°F) About -40°C (-40°F) 70° (from the ENE) 23 knots (26 mph)
400mb 7,620m (25,000 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde was released within 25mbs below this level.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:36Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 16.12N 58.79W
- Time: 15:36:50Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 16.09N 58.90W
- Time: 15:47:29Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 26 knots (30 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 35 knots (40 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 409mb to 1012mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 24 knots (28 mph)

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17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

That's one hell of a wave axis. lol... I mean, have we ever had closed vortex genesis at hurricane intensity? I'm being facetious. Still... lol.

 

I know Tropical Storm Nestor when it formed started out with 60 mph winds but I don't know if that counts. 

Quote
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 89.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

 

Also Hurricane Irma started out with 50 mph winds. 

 

Quote
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 30.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Highest I could find is 60 mph. 50 assuming Nestor does not count. 

 

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2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I know Tropical Storm Nestor when it formed started out with 60 mph winds but I don't know if that counts. 

Also Hurricane Irma started out with 50 mph winds. 

 

Highest I could find is 60 mph. 50 assuming Nestor does not count. 

 

ETA: Hurricane Matthew

 

Quote
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

 

 

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Recon has descended to ~950 ft in an effort to investigate whether we have a well defined and closed center. SFMR of about 33-34kts so nothing earth shattering there. 1008.7 extrapolated pressure. 

The winds matter far less in this flight than whether there is a closed LLC. 

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Recon has descended to ~950 ft in an effort to investigate whether we have a well defined and closed center. SFMR of about 33-34kts so nothing earth shattering there. 1008.7 extrapolated pressure. 
The winds matter far less in this flight than whether there is a closed LLC. 
950ft is unusually low unless they doing a water rescue recon

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

950ft is unusually low unless they doing a water rescue recon

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, it is low. Doesn’t seem to be anything related to rescue operations though. I think they’re really trying to see if there’s a sharp low level wind shift. 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs

received_3082544695193520.jpeg

GFS is northeast of every other model and is trending southwest.   Looks like a lot of GEFS members have caught on though.

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1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

Seems higher probs this gets shredded by Hispaniola now?

Still really uncertain. A lot depends on where the center forms and how strong it is.

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Also seems to me that the 12z GFS has gone closer to the Euro ... putting it into the GOM by 165 hours (although crossing FL while the Euro has it through the FL Straits).

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I'd like to see a storm develop with decent model initializations and at least be near PR/DR before hyper-analyzing model runs and US impact. Heh

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Here is the 12z gfs para 

 

 

 

Another GFS downgrade it appears.   It's the most intense model, and the only model close is the NAVGEM.

 

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14 minutes ago, Amped said:

Another GFS downgrade it appears.   It's the most intense model, and the only model close is the NAVGEM.

 

It’s gotta be wrong....Cuz it shows a major hit up here in SNE.  That happens about once every 30 years or so.  
 

But Perhaps 2020 is that year?  It’s had everything else lol. 

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Recon isn’t really finding any evidence of a well defined closed LLC. This is still probably too broad for a 5pm classification. We’ll see if this latest convective burst will help PTC 9 get there overnight. 
 

18997295.gif?0.7172896294707303

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Lowest surface pressure seems to be at the end of that SW leg with almost 2 degrees south of the current est. position.  Still no definitive west winds found.that I can see.  Pretty wicked shear just to it's north.  

wg8shr.GIF

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43 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I'd like to see a storm develop with decent model initializations and at least be near PR/DR before hyper-analyzing model runs and US impact. Heh

I don't see anything from recon that differs a lot from model initialization.

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This seems like it will track much further south/west vs current guidance. This was looking like an east coast threat up until yesterday but it now looks like odds are much better that it ends up in the Gulf of Mexico. The longer this takes to develop into a well defined system, the more the low level easterlies will be the predominant influence of track....And we’re still not seeing imminent signs of significant organization. 

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This seems like it will track much further south/west vs current guidance. This was looking like an east coast threat up until yesterday but it now looks like odds are much better that it ends up in the Gulf of Mexico. The longer this takes to develop into a well defined system, the more the low level easterlies will be the predominant influence of track....And we’re still not seeing imminent signs of significant organization. 

Ya obviously I think this thing isn’t gonna take off like some thought as it came off Africa.  It’s only July anyway....things slowing/calming  down again as they should.  

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12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This seems like it will track much further south/west vs current guidance. This was looking like an east coast threat up until yesterday but it now looks like odds are much better that it ends up in the Gulf of Mexico. The longer this takes to develop into a well defined system, the more the low level easterlies will be the predominant influence of track....And we’re still not seeing imminent signs of significant organization. 

Agree. Same view here. I see it potentially entering the GOM.

Really though just judging by satellite might actually be two separate areas instead of one broad area. 

 

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