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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Just eyeballing it on satellite—looks like the recurve has started and strengthening underway...

I'm not yet ready to call it strengthening, but you can see on IR that convection is firing right near the center. Can see it nicely on radar. 

Still a ragged IR appearance. It has some work to do. 

34365727.gif?0.48552841289752324

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https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

                    LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 03.08.2020    0  28.4N  79.3W      996            50
    1200UTC 03.08.2020   12  30.2N  79.7W      984            56
    0000UTC 04.08.2020   24  32.8N  78.7W      969            74
    1200UTC 04.08.2020   36  37.3N  76.5W      977            69
    0000UTC 05.08.2020   48  42.4N  72.9W      986            43
    1200UTC 05.08.2020   60  46.9N  69.4W      998            32
    0000UTC 06.08.2020   72  50.0N  65.6W     1001            36
    1200UTC 06.08.2020   84  52.8N  61.0W     1001            23
    0000UTC 07.08.2020   96              CEASED TRACKING

Overnight Ukmet had 969 mb at landfall. 

If you look at the polarward outflow it is beginning to be really enhanced by the upper trough. I don't see any inhibitors the next 12 hours. Like I said this is already 70 mph, this is not starting from scratch. Making it to 100 mph is not without reason. 

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the models hit the Carolinas with a 990 low or even stronger.

All the models predicted this would be a Hurricane yesterday. I would be amazed if this became a Hurricane at landfall.

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6 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

HMON also has it at 984mb right now when it's actually 1000mb so I think we can toss that run safely.

Every model is stronger than what is shown right now. This tells you that  take caution forward when you take the models to account.

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13 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

hmon_mslp_wind_09L_8.png

Hmon takes it to a 95kt near cat 3 prior to landfall. I think this is overdone. I think 75 to 80kt is possible.

 

It also initializes waaaayyyyy too low lol

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19 minutes ago, Hugo said:

 

1. Current forecast landfall is Myrtle.

2. Lolwhat

whoa. you're alive.

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Eye wall forming out of Jaxonville radar site. Half way done, the other half still not developed. Big spiral band was seen wrapping around on ir.

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Can we stop wishcasting, please. this isn't going to be a Cat 2 at landfall. will be lucky to be at cat 1

 

thanks - management

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Current OBS, HERE, at Topsail & Figure 8..

Overcast, w/ Torrential, (occasional),   Tropical Downpours.. 

Winds have switch again from SouthEast, Now, into the ESE at 10~15 w/ gusts towards 18mph.. 

Seas are approaching "choppy & sloppy" at 4ft.. W/ a 5 or 6' footer mixed in..

Temp & humidity are at.. 83F & 76 with Dew at 76% respectively..

Water temps on the beach are 84.2

Remember.. We've here in these areas in the SENC have had T-Storms every day, except for the Last couple days in July..

The ground(s) are extremely Saturated..

i left to get beer & Gas awhile ago, with just a Extreme Downpour, there was a 100'+ pine laying across the exit here, AND (even though it was about dead) A sweet gum about 50'+ ft tall came crashing down in My yard, as I was leaving in that "downpour"..

NOT to be "Alarmist" , though coupled with exceptional high tides/Rain's & wind(s) even at TS Force,, We are going to see numerous Power outages, downed trees & Coastal Flooding..

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm not yet ready to call it strengthening, but you can see on IR that convection is firing right near the center. Can see it nicely on radar. 

Still a ragged IR appearance. It has some work to do. 

34365727.gif?0.48552841289752324

Yes of course. It’s all relative. 
 

The early improvements are much more apparent on visible at the moment. Isaias is beginning to reorient himself and gain symmetry.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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It still looks a lot worse than last night and It will be lucky to get back to where it was last night before landfall.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yes of course. It’s all relative. 
 

The early improvements are much more apparent on visible at the moment. Isaias is beginning to reorient himself and gain symmetry.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I know you know. I just like to add caveats lol. 

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Isaias just has a lot of work to do in a still not great environment. There are barely any TS force winds on the west side of the system. The TS winds are displaced 40-50 miles east of the center on the east side and the strongest FL winds are more like 75+ miles away from the center. If it manages to make landfall as a cat 1 I think baroclinic help to increase the winds well to the NE of the center are a more likely path than the storm developing a strong inner core at this stage.

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This  is a case where  last  minute  deepening  is  very  possible right  up to and during  landfall.. First rain band about to hit  me

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12z Ukmet makes landfall at 980 mb. Passes right  over Nyc at 985 mb. Given pressure gradient with the 1020 mb high to the east, that could produce damaging gusts in the area to 70 mph . It makes multiple landfalls as it passes over the Chesapeake .  

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2 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

12z Ukmet makes landfall at 980 mb. Passes right  over Nyc at 985 mb. Given pressure gradient with the 1020 mb high to the east, that could produce damaging gusts in the area to 70 mph . It makes multiple landfalls as it passes over the Chesapeake .  

Its not out yet

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3 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Did tropicaltidbits recon page stop updating? 

There hasn't been anything from mission 24 in almost 2 hours. I'm using the google earth plugin from tropical atlantic and it's the same.

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9 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

storm_09.gif

I count 5 landfalls on the Ukie. It makes landfall in Nc, Md,Nj,Ny and possibly Ct. It is 75 miles east of the consensus models. 

Appreciate your info.

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10 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

storm_09.gif

I count 5 landfalls on the Ukie. It makes landfall in Nc, Md,Nj,Ny and possibly Ct. It is 75 miles east of the consensus models. 

Thanks for the info 

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Now that the data is coming in from the recon things look better. The last pass had a pressure of 997 and there was an unflagged SFMR of 60 knots. 

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