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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

This thing is booking.  Main impacts look like 6-12 hours at most.

This.

I have a feeling this may help lessen a wider spread flash flood threat across the Mid-Atlantic.  Time will tell, but that is my gut feeling.

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

So the center is even more NE near the MLC on that last center fix....nice jump to the NE...

Yeah, could have some impacts on landfall down the road

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So it would appear to me that the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 18z GFS-Para, 18z HWRF, 18z CMC all take the center west of NYC ... while the 12z Euro and 12z UKMET take it over or east of NYC. Any guess as to who wins? :-). Has big implications in terms of which parts of NYC get lots of QPF vs. wind impacts.

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41 minutes ago, thunderman said:

This.

I have a feeling this may help lessen a wider spread flash flood threat across the Mid-Atlantic.  Time will tell, but that is my gut feeling.

Agreed - possibly the biggest variable for much of the mid-Atlantic/Northeast will be how much of a predecessor rain event do we see (late Monday into Tuesday for the Philly-NJ-NYC are), since that could give an extra inch or two of rain before the main event.  

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Yeah, this current convective burst seems to be a lot healthier than the last couple we've seen.  Think it's at a latitude now that the shear will slowly become less of hindrance with time.  Not completely of course but the thorn in it's side should slowly stop festering as bad moving forward.  With that last recon pass showing a LL jump NNE the LL circulation could be ducking and covering under that vigorous mid level vort which has been dominant the last 24 hours.  Stack away the Gulf Stream can play a little.

 

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I'm also pretty impressed how the UL ridging became better established over the last 24 hours or so. It was well displaced to the SE early Sat. after the convection collapsed over Andros.

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the
east coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

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This is coming right for me.  I am 25.5 miles inland from Oak Island  NC and 10 miles due west of ILM.  Should be interesting to say the least. 

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00Z models still going with some strengthening up to landfall.  Euro has backed off to mirror the GFS but what's a few mb's amongst friends.  HWRF still shows it's latent GFDL DNA with being the most bullish.  Landfall still splitting hairs from Cape Fear to farther SW along the SC coast S of MB.  The good thing is except for the HWRF (987) don't see a drastic pressure fall on the 00Z runs.  

This last convective burst is beginning to wane.  If it can fire another on the heels of it and sustain it for another 24 hours it might get back up to cane status.  Looks like that's the window it has left, and that's a pretty dirty window.  Stranger things have happened.  Fat lady isn't singing but I think she's clearing her throat.

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NHC now explicitly forecasts a hurricane at landfall. Almost all models forecast a deepening trend until the storm reaches the coast. HWRF 984 mb at landfall and GFS 991. Seems reasonable to me. “Eye” has become a little less defined from very early this morning but it’s all formative and these trends happen. Overall system looks less sheared than 12 hours ago and has all day over bathtub water with decreasing shear and a better shear vector. I’d say a hurricane at landfall is the right call by NHC 

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Good Monday morning, August 3.  Posting only EPS/GEFS tracks from the 00z/3.  I probably won't be able to contribute much further on the the national forum and switching to NYC forum where will post some guidance and/or attempted forecast of reality. Pretty sure we have a significant tropical weather problem up here for our area. Been a very good thread discussion.

NOTE: slight differences of GEFS/EPS clustered tracks when we get to NYC. 

552A/3

Screen Shot 2020-08-03 at 5.30.14 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-03 at 5.31.00 AM.png

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Appears I going to have a Grand Stand Front Row seating As this comes ashore.. going to be interesting..

(I reside on the ICW, See Sig)..

On the "dirty" side of things..

Onshore flow AND being a Full Moon Lunar Pedigee, High Tide(s) are at 8:30PM tonight, Coastal Flooding is almost a givin here with what-ever winds/Rain & gust(s) are going to Occur.. 

My phone going crazy with Hurricane Warnings/Alerts etc.. 

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So he has roughly 18 more hours and a little better conditions. Can he gain 10mph In strength? He has fought against horrible conditions and won so we will see what he can do. Bertha managed a 20mph increase in her last 18 hours.

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I still expect it to attain hurricane status, but it needs to tighten up the core. It's still too disorganized, but as shear relaxes today that will give it a window to develop. Really, I think all it'll take is a strong convective burst over the center to get this going again. 

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As a lower eastern shore of Maryland waterfront dweller, I’d rather just see it go away. Who in the world wants a tropical cyclone to come to their backyard? Been there done that.

    Go away Iglesias.....

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I was noticing on the IR this morning that cloud tops had really warmed. 

New convection is going up to the East of the center. We'll have to see if that becomes dominant. For now it appears that we're back into the pulsing stage.

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I was noticing on the IR this morning that cloud tops had really warmed. 

Kind of par for the course for this storm. Once it can organize internally, it should be able to begin taking advantage of the more favorable environment. Oddly, its convective pattern has turned the diurnal cycles on their head. It's been better during the day than at night the last few days. 

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In late August, 2011, "Irene" transitioned from a hurricane to tropical storm as it walloped interior New England.  Vermont was hit hard with considerable rainfall.  The current storm track seems very similar.

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1 minute ago, Downeaster said:

In late August, 2011, "Irene" transitioned from a hurricane to tropical storm as it walloped interior New England.  Vermont was hit hard with considerable rainfall.  The current storm track seems very similar.

The strength will not be the same

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