• Member Statistics

    16,265
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    MDweatherman
    Newest Member
    MDweatherman
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

Recommended Posts

16 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

that is an aligned center with the signs of a true eye wall developing.  What site do you get these from?  

Those things aren't very useful when the storms in a spot where's there's good radar coverage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
that is an aligned center with the signs of a true eye wall developing.  What site do you get these from?  

LLC to MLC is still tilted to the upper right. It will continue to be until the lower steering column becomes more southerly. Granted, this is going to occur, but let's not jump the gun here. Strong convective banding is trying to wrap upshear, but we still do not have a "core" aligned vortex and will not until the steering column changes and or shear decreases.
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Funny that this is the best Isaias has looked in days when at this point it was forecasted to start weakening with increasing shear. Slow movement over the Gulf Stream is probably helping to an extent. I did read where orientation of the shear vectors matching more to the storm motion could help reduce the directional shear somewhat

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
36 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:
that is an aligned center with the signs of a true eye wall developing.  What site do you get these from?  

 

LLC to MLC is still tilted to the upper right. It will continue to be until the lower steering column becomes more southerly. Granted, this is going to occur, but let's not jump the gun here. Strong convective banding is trying to wrap upshear, but we still do not have a "core" aligned vortex and will not until the steering column changes and or shear decreases.

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just got back from the beach here in Vero. Sustained winds easily 40mph plus. Strongest winds thus far from the storm locally. Good luck to all in SC/NC and north of there.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

 

The SC/NC landfall versus dragging the west side up half the SC coast will be a factor in how much and how far the western wind field gets....still it sure looks like 40-60 mph gust are almost a lock for the Triangle at least. 

 

Recon hit 989 that last pass through..

0z 3k NAM has the center going up eastern wake. Going to be interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

0z 3k NAM has the center going up eastern wake. Going to be interesting.

 

Brings the west side onshore way down in central SC though.....I would almost be willing to be there would be bigger winds there if the center came in at the border moving NNE up I 95......the west side would have less time to erode, then again having half the center over shore may relax the gradient and spread the stronger winds west........either way I look screwed here, I am a wind junkie so I will be on my porch for the whole thing but man I am going to hate having no power for 2+ days...and its going to be hot.....the upside will be the entire neighborhood coming together to clean up and grilling out at the cul de sac every night.....

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

0z 3k NAM has the center going up eastern wake. Going to be interesting.

Yeah tomorrow is gonna be Interesting 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

 

Brings the west side onshore way down in central SC though.....I would almost be willing to be there would be bigger winds there if the center came in at the border moving NNE up I 95......the west side would have less time to erode, then again having half the center over shore may relax the gradient and spread the stronger winds west........either way I look screwed here, I am a wind junkie so I will be on my porch for the whole thing but man I am going to hate having no power for 2+ days...and its going to be hot.....the upside will be the entire neighborhood coming together to clean up and grilling out at the cul de sac every night.....

Yeah I think that is probably the western most solution. My guess is somewhere around N Myrtle/Cherry Grove is the likely landfall point.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Yeah I think that is probably the western most solution. My guess is somewhere around N Myrtle/Cherry Grove is the likely landfall point.

When was the last hurricane force gust in RDU Fran? 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

When was the last hurricane force gust in RDU Fran? 

From a Tropical related system... Most likely. 24 years. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

0z 3k NAM has the center going up eastern wake. Going to be interesting.

And still has it as a Cat 1 storm going over Fayetteville ... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I mean it's like they arent putting any weight behind any of the models getting this down to 980. I mean this has model support for upper 970s. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THE NAM IS WORTHLESS FOR TROPICAL.

Train yourself to just not look at it. I know the temptation is enormous because it comes out earliest. 

The Canadian is largely worthless as well, but again it's fairly easy to find output. UKMET is vastly, vastly better than the Canadian  but gets less attention because of more difficulty for public to view. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With regards to Raleigh area, you would think it would weaken considerably before arriving since it is over land for a good distance ahead of time...  However, the storm is moving so quickly, some of that will be negated.  This thing is booking.  Main impacts look like 6-12 hours at most.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.