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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s trying to close off around the core again. Let’s see if it can get it done. Looks like no big deal for FL now.

Pretty much all the models keep it off shore of Florida which may have consequences up in SC and NC points north depending on how the trough may help Isaias breathe and scour out dry air.  The south southwesterly shear as the storm moves to the north may ventilate the system.  I would suppose we will find more about that later. 

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I’d hate to look like a fool again, but maybe this is really trying to reorganize?

Recon was more compelling today than with the mid level burst last night. Not saying it’s definitely going to happen, but a realignment east would likely have a meaningful track impact.

Maybe I didn’t look like too much of a clown suggesting that the weak LLC could redevelop last night? :bag:

 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d hate to look like a fool again, but maybe this is really trying to reorganize?

Recon was more compelling today than with the mid level burst last night. Not saying it’s definitely going to happen, but a realignment east would likely have a meaningful track impact.

Maybe I didn’t look like too much of a clown suggesting that the weak LLC could redevelop last night? :bag:

 

I was saying the same thing last night too. I was thinking with the 2 circulations one would die down and the other take over.  I was correct back at the Dominican Republic so trying for 2-2.  However if this is the case it guarantees this stays off the Florida coast and can have consequences up the coast.  It all depends on the alignment of the trough coming for the east coast and how the western Atlantic ridge pushes against it. 

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I mean I just don't know. I could be lost, but this would seem like a situation where redevelopment or complete decoupling occurs. Even if there is a redevelopment, the shear remains. Until that decreases this is going to be a messy system. 

Mets, am I overthinking this?

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45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

How many times is Paul Goodloe going to say today that the “Western Eyewall” is currently battering SE FL? 

I can assure you, from a guy sitting out side drinking coffee in Palm Beach County, we are not being battered by anything lol. 

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Just now, SnowLover22 said:

Well Isaias is over the Gulf Stream right now so I am sure that is helping as it is getting a constant supply of very warm water from the gulf of Mexico. 

Water is near 90 in the Bahamas and in the Gulf Stream, warm waters mean nothing.  It’s not all about water temperature

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As many have said, storm is tilted. Shear isn’t backing down anytime soon so I doubt it intensifies much today. The Bahamas however have been getting it good under the mid level center.

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6 minutes ago, finatic jason said:

I can assure you, from a guy sitting out side drinking coffee in Palm Beach County, we are not being battered by anything lol. 

Right lol. Has to be one of the weakest radars I’ve seen on the west side of a strong tropical system 

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12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Water is near 90 in the Bahamas and in the Gulf Stream, warm waters mean nothing.  It’s not all about water temperature

Wrong, the warm water is most likely what fueled the current very impressive convective burst among other factors. And as others have said, Isaias is attempting to reorganize with the center trying to go under the deep convection. All I said is the warm water is helping and that statement seems to be correct. 

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Just now, SnowLover22 said:

Wrong, the warm water is most likely what fueled the current very impressive convective burst. And as others have said Isasis is attempting to reorganize with the center trying to go under the deep convection. All I said is the warm water is helping and that statement seems to be correct. 

You definitely need warm water to fuel the storm but it won't help it if there is alot of shear in the area.

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The trough is coming to pick him up later today and tonight.  Up here in SE Pennsylvania the warm front just went through clouds are flying from the south to north at the low levels.  Dewpoint 66 last night is currently sitting at 75 this morning.  

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4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Wrong, the warm water is most likely what fueled the current very impressive convective burst among other factors. And as others have said, Isaias is attempting to reorganize with the center trying to go under the deep convection. All I said is the warm water is helping and that statement seems to be correct. 

Little water temperature difference between now and this from yesterday

935CB2E9-9AEE-45D3-90C6-12F177DD505C.png

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LLC has relocated under the CDO explosion from this morning (So the LLC and MLC are aligned again). You can actually see it jump NE on the most recent Radar animation frames. I also have noticed less high cirrus clouds moving from SW to NE around the storm this morning, which means the shear has relaxed a bit. Considering it has redeveloped a good 25-50 miles NE, it will likely remain offshore until it makes landfall in SC/NC. So redevelopment is likely (to what extent is always unknown in these scenarios). I agree w/ Joe B. on this one (don't say that too often).

Untitled picture.png

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13 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

LLC has relocated under the CDO explosion from this morning (So the LLC and MLC are aligned again). You can actually see it jump NE on the most recent Radar animation frames. I also have noticed less high cirrus clouds moving from SW to NE around the storm this morning, which means the shear has relaxed a bit. Considering it has redeveloped a good 25-50 miles NE, it will likely remain offshore until it makes landfall in SC/NC. So redevelopment is likely (to what extent is always unknown in these scenarios). I agree w/ Joe B. on this one (don't say that too often).

Untitled picture.png

It will be interesting if that shifts the entire track forecast east coming up. We shall see.

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13 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

You are forgetting one key difference. At that time, the storm was dealing with land interaction with Andros Island. 

How much damage does this island of mostly water and land that barely gets above sea level actually do to a cyclone?

Screenshot_20200802-094148_Maps.jpg

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There seems to be a COC to the NW of  the western tip of Grand Bahama island, at least when viewing long and shortwave presentations. Don't know if it extends to the surface.

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I’m not discounting this storm here in NC. Some models have shown an intensifying storm as it heads this way. I don’t think anything crazy but it would not surprise me if this shot up to a hurricane again when it’s motion gets in better alignment with the shear and it undergoes a bit of a transition at the entry region of that jet streak. The additional energy influx, better mid level flow, venting in upper levels, more rapid forward motion and favorable sea surface temps mean this at a minimum will have a much improved appearance at landfall in the Carolinas, expansion of NW quadrant, and possible intensification about the time the system moves into the coast. The strong jet streaks plus tropical systems always expand gusty winds inland as well, and the corridor from Raleigh up through the DC metro region could easily see gusty winds in the 40-45 mph range, as sniffed out by some modeling. These winds will not be purely tropical and as the system undergoes transition away from a fully tropical system these winds will be able to spread into the northeast. Any heavier rain will transport this upper level energy to the ground in the form of non sustained gusts inland. Long story short: impacts from the Carolinas northward will be significantly worse than what Florida has seen. It may even make a run at hurricane intensity before landfall as well. Add in the heavy tropical rain being enhanced by the mid level jet and some areas could see some more significant impacts in the coming days. Obviously the ceiling is limited but I wouldn’t expect a non even by a long shot for this systems final act

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1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

How much damage does this island of mostly water and land that barely gets above sea level actually do to a cyclone?

Screenshot_20200802-094148_Maps.jpg

A lot if the only favorable parameter is the water and its warm temperature. 

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For the first time in a while, there’s no other competing convective areas in the general area of Isaias. This is likely an important precondition to surface pressure falls and to reduce subsidence in the vicinity of the LLC which should help to slightly improve feedbacks and the mesoscale environment for strengthening. 
 

It *appears* the pulsing phase may have finally ended...

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23 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

How much damage does this island of mostly water and land that barely gets above sea level actually do to a cyclone?

Screenshot_20200802-094148_Maps.jpg

The massive land mass that is Grand Bahama may have saved Florida from being crushed by Dorian.  

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40 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

LLC has relocated under the CDO explosion from this morning (So the LLC and MLC are aligned again). You can actually see it jump NE on the most recent Radar animation frames. I also have noticed less high cirrus clouds moving from SW to NE around the storm this morning, which means the shear has relaxed a bit. Considering it has redeveloped a good 25-50 miles NE, it will likely remain offshore until it makes landfall in SC/NC. So redevelopment is likely (to what extent is always unknown in these scenarios). I agree w/ Joe B. on this one (don't say that too often).

Untitled picture.png

Recon seems to support this no?

20200802_094324.jpg

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1 minute ago, shaggy said:

Recon seems to support this no?

20200802_094324.jpg

Yeah, it looks pretty clear to me from radar/sat. It's likely still in a transitionary phase.

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