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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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6 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

i  know the hwrf and hmon picked up this weakening until it clears the florida coast and starts organizing and deepening off the Ga coast.. I'm not an expert but wouldn't it take a lot for it to follow suit with the hwrf and hmon?

Something has to be left to strengthen. 

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7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think he’s down graded to a 70 mph tropical storm at 2 pm.  This thing is imploding look at all the cirrus fanning out from the dying thunderstorms. 

Yeah there’s no way this thing is a Hurricane right now in my opinion. Nassau only has winds sustained in the 30s

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48 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

If that were the case then why not have the warning all the way down to Miami which has a 1% chance of 64kt winds

Good question.

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8 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

i  know the hwrf and hmon picked up this weakening until it clears the florida coast and starts organizing and deepening off the Ga coast.. I'm not an expert but wouldn't it take a lot for it to follow suit with the hwrf and hmon?

It's up against it right now, but a well defined center (not to be confused with "core i.e. eyewall") is still there. It would take time for it to organize even if shear dropped immediately. Despite the recent struggles, if this is able to avoid interaction with Florida I think it can gradually strengthen in the right conditions, which I think will be maximized off the Carolina coast. Remember, small systems can pulse up and pulse down fairly quickly. Because this is smaller I think we've seen pretty significant intensity swings that the NHC have smoothed out with their advisories. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It's up against it right now, but a well defined center (not to be confused with "core i.e. eyewall") is still there. It would take time for it to organize even if shear dropped immediately. Despite the recent struggles, if this is able to avoid interaction with Florida I think it can gradually strengthen in the right conditions, which I think will be maximized off the Carolina coast. Remember, small systems can pulse up and pulse down fairly quickly. Because this is smaller I think we've seen pretty significant intensity swings that the NHC have smoothed out with their advisories. 

Probably it’s best shot to strengthen again so long it stays over water would be Daytona on north where waters are still plenty warm and more importantly maybe the dry air will erode a bit and you can get more ventilation in response to the eastern trough.  There is a definite lid on development right now I can only imagine a weakening trend if anything. 

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Yeah etc etc...

Not a decapitation per se . There is still coupled convection but it's definitely succumbing to advected stable Theta-E right into what is left of the mid level tilted core. Not sure this remains a hurricane for long without a rebound of new deep convection over the partially exposed LLC.742079e09de411ca45273393ca42cfab.gif&key=d37beb05cea8b2984c5a966241497c5945d68f48f82395494a355e6f18c64a92

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Think part of what happened is we have a storm dealing with so many negative factors that we forgot to take into account landfall in Andros, the largest island in the Bahamas. That’s not like hitting the abacos or Long Island, this is a legit landfall with most of the core region over land. It took the path where it has to traverse the most land possible in the Bahamas. 

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Think part of what happened is we have a storm dealing with so many negative factors that we forgot to take into account landfall in Andros, the largest island in the Bahamas. That’s not like hitting the abacos or Long Island, this is a legit landfall with most of the core region over land. It took the path where it has to traverse the most land possible in the Bahamas. 

I think alot of people were predicting the storm was going to miss the big islands and gain  strength.

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System looks like it was chopped in half. Center moving NW dying convection stationary. Going to have to generate something or we’ll see a cloud swirl make landfall and die in central Florida 

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Just now, dizzy9479 said:

Lol - Dr. Greg Postel just said it had a "spectacular" satellite presentation

Anything for ratings. Can’t stand TWC hurricane coverage. I’d be ok if they went ahead and retired that term “covid-cane” or whatever they threw around yesterday too. 

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Would like the rainfall. 

Me too but we can have a depression and get that.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah, I think it’s over for this system...and what a ridiculous name for a storm anyway! 

But since there probably won't be any major impacts, we'll be looking at this name again in 6 years. Can we start a petition to retire the name based solely on the pronunciation confusion it made?

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