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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This. Also watch the deep tropical  moisture fetch generated by the digging of the approaching Upper level trough. It will be quite different from the dry air he’s been ingesting for the better part of the past 2 days. 

https://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse3.html

That link can’t possibly be now where’s Isaias lol

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7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Having grown up in coastal NC, I’m not sure I can recall a storm intensifying before landfall. They usually quickly degrade around 32N.

 

Bertha was really dropping fast as she came in gust to 90+ well inland....Diana went apeshit and only that crazy little loop saved NC from a Cat 4 hit.....

 

Diana went a 75 mph cane to a 135 mph cane in a day and stopped 15 miles offshore had she not stopped and kept going north another 100 miles........

prelim04.thumb.gif.069d1dc8c73f155ef5fe35a8d70c62e6.gif

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Question for the Mets on this board:

 

I see on the NHC site that the probability of Hurricane force winds at West Palm Beach are less than 10%   and probably closer to 5% in Boca Raton based on the 3% chance in Ft Lauderdale. Why if the probability is so low is there still a Hurricane warning as far south as Boca Raton? It would seem to me that the warning is in conflict with their own data.. More importantly there is the " boy who cried wolf" factor where as maybe the next time when there really is a severe threat people will remember this one and ignore the warning  next time.

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Andros is being raked from a bad direction considering where the island is most built up. I know it’s not pretty and I know it’s a cat 1 but having been there a couple times it’s extremely low and I’d guess surge prone not to mention this system is literally just crawling up the coast there. I’d expect they’re having significant impacts 

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8 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

but that shit is boring

seen it so many times.

As many have mentioned. The 50s were in a different league than people are used to.

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51 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Question for the Mets on this board:

 

I see on the NHC site that the probability of Hurricane force winds at West Palm Beach are less than 10%   and probably closer to 5% in Boca Raton based on the 3% chance in Ft Lauderdale. Why if the probability is so low is there still a Hurricane warning as far south as Boca Raton? It would seem to me that the warning is in conflict with their own data.. More importantly there is the " boy who cried wolf" factor where as maybe the next time when there really is a severe threat people will remember this one and ignore the warning  next time.

I'm not a Met, but I'm guessing that their process or policy is such that they issue a Warning for all areas where the probability is above 0%. Because 3% is still not zero and what IF it decides to beat the odds and end up trending far enough west that they experience hurricane force winds at Boca?

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Just now, larrye said:

I'm not a Met, but I'm guessing that their process or policy is such that they issue a Warning for all areas where the probability is above 0%. Because 3% is still not zero and what IF it decides to beat the odds and end up trending far enough west that they experience hurricane force winds at Boca?

That’s definitely not the case. Lol

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7 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

who thinks this makes landfall on the Florida coast and where? 

and for those looking for weather stations and cameras for the storm check out the weather stem app.  Martin   County EOC has quite a few weather stations and cams set up including one beachfront on south Hutchinson island.  It’s pretty close to my actual location in Sewalls point. 
 

6A993829-C283-44E6-B45F-551114E05989.png

My dad lives about 30 miles north in south Vero Beach.  Most likely FL landfall, to me, is Cape Canaveral, as it juts out into the Atlantic a bit and it looks to be the closest approach based on the forecast track.  

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17 minutes ago, larrye said:

I'm not a Met, but I'm guessing that their process or policy is such that they issue a Warning for all areas where the probability is above 0%. Because 3% is still not zero and what IF it decides to beat the odds and end up trending far enough west that they experience hurricane force winds at Boca?

If that were the case then why not have the warning all the way down to Miami which has a 1% chance of 64kt winds

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20 minutes ago, larrye said:

I'm not a Met, but I'm guessing that their process or policy is such that they issue a Warning for all areas where the probability is above 0%. Because 3% is still not zero and what IF it decides to beat the odds and end up trending far enough west that they experience hurricane force winds at Boca?

There's a clear definition of a hurricane warning that is put out by the NWS. At the time it was issued it probably applied as that's what the models were pointing at. They probably aren't rescinding it "just in case":

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The key here is all of the limiting factors abate. Dry air will be gone as will the wind shear. And SST’s still very warm, in the mid 80’s. The main issue then becomes one of time. 
 

3CCC5244-FE9E-4838-B154-87B9642E90AA.gif

Only another 12 hours or so before FL land interaction becomes significant.  Matthew weakened considerably while paralleling the FL coast - are there examples of storms coming this close to the FL coast (with almost half the circulation over land, even if little elevation) and strengthening?

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Isaias currently looks like that supercell you've been chasing that just burped out a gust front and is about to collapse on itself. So you bail to the next one.

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Isaias currently looks like that supercell you've been chasing that just burped out a gust front and is about to collapse on itself. So you bail to the next one.

Comparatively speaking most storms that straddle the North coast of DR are permanently damaged. This one is doing good actually.

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This thing is taking one heck of a beating right now. You can see how the lack of a core is leading to dry air having free reign in the system. Akin to a fighter leading with their chin. Definitely weaker at this hour.

78471690.gif?0.7353635383349858

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I don't know guys. I think that kind of sinking dry air would kill a Major cane and the shear vector is from the SW. it's like could it get any worse? Probably not.

It's probably going to thrive in the mid-latitudes once it clears the graveyard.

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Heavy rain will be the biggest issue with this thing. Not really a big deal. We’ll have to wait closer to Peak season to see our mega Storm I guess 

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Latest NHC update says hurricane winds only extend 25 miles, probably mainly northeast of the center. Man this thing really shrunk. Pressure up to 987 and winds 80

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3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

I don't know guys. I think that kind of sinking dry air would kill a Major cane and the shear vector is from the SW. it's like could it get any worse? Probably not.

It's probably going to thrive in the mid-latitudes once it clears the graveyard.

Oh I think it could get worse. The more the center convection is under attack the harder it becomes to fight back, and the more the center is attacked. 

This is an unequivocally brutal period for Isaías and until it can get deeper convection going in the center to mix out this dry air at best it’ll be steady state. It’s still standing, but it’s on the ropes for sure. 

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From the 11am discussion 

In the near term, Isaias could weaken a little bit this afternoon 
while passing over northern Andros Island. However, the still 
impressive vertical structure of the cyclone should allow for some 
re-strengthening after the center moves back over the warm Gulf 
Stream by this evening. The current SHIPS analyzed westerly 
vertical wind shear of 25 kt could be too high due to the model 
incorporating some of the storm's outflow. The models forecast the 
shear to weaken somewhat over the next 36 h while Isaias is moving 
over the Gulf Stream, and the 06Z UKMET shows Isaias moving 
underneath a 200-mb anticyclone, which would normally favor some 
strengthening. Given all of these factors, the official forecast 
maintains a steady intensity through Monday night. Slow weakening 
is forecast when Isais encounters more significant southwesterly 
vertical wind shear ahead of a strong upper-level trough that will 
be approaching the U.S. east coast on days 3-5.

 

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23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Isaias currently looks like that supercell you've been chasing that just burped out a gust front and is about to collapse on itself. So you bail to the next one.

Do you think this could XS end up being below tropical storm strength as it approaches Carolinas with the beating he’s taking right now???

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i  know the hwrf and hmon picked up this weakening until it clears the florida coast and starts organizing and deepening off the Ga coast.. I'm not an expert but wouldn't it take a lot for it to follow suit with the hwrf and hmon?

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