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Hurricane Isaías

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12z Euro is still keeping it south of the Greater Antilles. Seems to be thet only model doing that. Euro has always been the trend setter so it'll be interesting to see if the others follow suit. 

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18 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z Euro is still keeping it south of the Greater Antilles. Seems to be thet only model doing that. Euro has always been the trend setter so it'll be interesting to see if the others follow suit. 

I would focus more on the ensemble packages at day 10....EPS had the recurve. I don't buy the Carribean cruiser scenario. That said, we are going to have to thread the needle to get a major impact from a traditional recurve to avoid either a miss, a significant weakening, or even dissipation from the greater antilles. Best shot of a huge hit imo is the system getting partially recurved so that it misses Hispanola, and then some ridging builds back in to some degree. This is what happened with Andrew to a greater extent, and Hugo to a lesser extent.

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I watched a video from Brad Panovich earlier and he stated that there was some downturn in model accuracy due to the lack of commercial flights sampling the upper atmosphere.  I thought that was interesting.  Any thoughts from those more in the know?

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Initially it was very robust with a strong hurricane, but has recently driven a weak 92L into the northern Caribbean before eventually dissipating. Not that it matters much right now. 

Do you think that SAL influence is going to cause 92L to struggle?

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I don’t buy Caribbean cruiser either. Despite a broad low currently and a fair amount of dry air/stability ahead, 92L is heading toward warmer SSTs and already has a decent pocket of moisture. I think development is more dependent on how quickly 92L can consolidate a LLC.

Long term, even with warm SSTs in the western Atlantic we’ll need to watch for wind shear that could significantly hinder intensification. One step at a time though. A lot to be resolved over the next 5-10 days. 
 

4 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Do you think that SAL influence is causing 92L to struggle?

I think it helps to slow things down, but I don’t think it’ll get too much in the way here—especially if this gets to the western Atlantic rather than the Caribbean. Unlike Gonzalo, this is a much larger moisture envelope. 

92104329.gif?0.6198588333635563

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11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

18z guidence (and 12z EPS)2bf81339f00c93b7bb3d33417c9203bc.jpga3d1be0ddc41eb6d16936554de243d73.jpg

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That is some unbelievable agreement this far out.

Still a threat but a recurve OTS is favored, for now.

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

That is some unbelievable agreement this far out.

Still a threat but a recurve OTS is favored, for now.

For the U.S. possible, but look out Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Bahamas. Still plenty of time to watch it though.

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I posted an enunciation video in the main thread. But here is a better one. Though perhaps premature as these things are still greatly difficult to predict. If 92L becomes Isaías:

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7 hours ago, Windspeed said:
9 hours ago, wdrag said:
Transfer from NY forum... (I didn't realize this was already here) Aug 2-6 (next week): Eventual ISAIAS? Not a lock yet. A definite weakness in what continues to be a repetitive reformation of an eastern USA trough next week should allow whatever forms in the Atlantic to make a run at the USA, be it a close call recurvature out to sea off the eastern USA seaboard or into the GMEX. Lot's of interesting possibilities, especially when looking at the jet stream configuration. I have the August 2:  00z/26 500mb wind fields. GEFS showing the storm and RRQ potential. The EC EPS has the event further south toward FL but also eastern USA weakness.  The GEFS (00z/26) ensembles show quite a few members making a northward run next week... but is this accurate?  Don't know. It's 8-12 days out. I added the EPS and GEFS idea of tracking whatever is out there.  I do think this has a chance to add some moisture up here.  T 649A/26 transfer 913A/262031559938_ScreenShot2020-07-26at5_30_32AM.thumb.png.889473231e129433c4c8c76d5dd0e0d3.png539845743_ScreenShot2020-07-26at6_13_11AM.thumb.png.ce793bcbbae68d6a02df6ca1f38f4395.png1315317966_ScreenShot2020-07-26at6_14_57AM.thumb.png.138ecf8b94fad8936c17439bdbbde7c9.png

1224307848_ScreenShot2020-07-26at6_08_49AM.thumb.png.a33e7ea4f9ece986b96da333a7e2bd35.png

250679349_ScreenShot2020-07-26at6_09_58AM.thumb.png.3b25542d562aa51b2c754a379405e9c6.png

Early and just speculation. A trough in this pattern may break down WATL 500 hPa heights and allow a TC to gain latitude, but how much does it break down and how long does it remain weak/displaced east? This pattern can be tricky. 500 hPa heights generally want to rebuild over top and we've seen SERs rebuild rather quickly into the SE; therefore, it may not be a slam dunk this potential upcoming long-tracking TC misses the SE or ECONUS until very late in the forecast period as ENS tracks could just as well resolve bending back solutions after days of solutions showing broader recurve, including some into the maritimes. We'll just have to have a little patience. Hard to have confidence in any solution that far out except perhaps definitely seeing the greater threat to the Lesser and Greater Antilles this upcoming weekend.

Agreed... I do think some moisture has to eventually leak up here altho its possible it could cut off into the se. Timing is everything into a front and any RRQ across Quebec/NNE.  Monitoring and definitely not time to enhance the topic. I think I'll post GEFS/EPS 500mb wind ensembles daily around 7A on this forum... and the EPS/GEFS all from the 00z cycle.  Then we can watch the trends and/or swaying back and forth. First it has to develop into ISAIAS.  That's the first checkmark for me. 

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6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No problem. We’re here to discuss. I always have to add the caveat lol.

Thanks. Nice to know that there is someone here that encourages discussion and questions.

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HWRF keeps it just north of the big islands and has it as a Cat 2 heading towards Florida

hwrf-p_mslp_wind_92L_fh105-126.gif

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26 minutes ago, larrye said:

Thanks. Nice to know that there is someone here that encourages discussion and questions.

Yeah, I love the discussion. I post so much around here now when it comes to tropical because I literally spent years lurking in forums and asking questions, posting models, and learning. On Weather Underground I used to scroll through comments and would read Levi Cowan’s tropical analysis before he became renowned for his TropicalTidbits site. Only way to learn is by having an open discussion. I’m still learning here.

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After this satellite outage, 92L is looking much better organized. Also, the new model runs are much stronger and further west. Overall, bad trends tonight.

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After this satellite outage, 92L is looking much better organized. Also, the new model runs are much stronger and further west. Overall, bad trends tonight.
Yep

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  Most important thing right now is if and where a low level center consolidates, and how dominant an initial low center is.  With these systems that slowly develop in a larger pouch this far out several smaller vortices can form and it can take a couple days for one to become dominant.  Even then if the initial dominant vortex is still fairly weak 1005mb's give or take, it is subject to re-formation under any intense sustained convection and can throw the 5 day track off  by hundreds of miles.  Models tend to have an east bias on Cape Verde systems this far out.  Will likely continue to see 120 hour forecast points to continue to nudge west over the next 2-3 days.  Model's currently continue to hint at a Herbert box track which if happens, tends to put Fl. and the EC more in play but also puts the Hispaniola shredder in play should it develop.  Climatologically anything getting into the Eastern Caribbean this early has a good chance of getting sheared apart. There's also a fairly significant wave coming off of Africa tonight that could become a player in 92l's evolution and 2 others behind it.  Been a very very long time to see the wave train this active this early (2005 anyone?), but it is 2020, seems nothing is normal this year. 

  One thing that concerns me this year is the gulf.  I was checking water temp depths from buoys a couple days before Hanna made landfall and there are some very deep 26C isotherms all across the gulf this year.  There's some rocket fuel out there.

 

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  Most important thing right now is if and where a low level center consolidates, and how dominant an initial low center is.  With these systems that slowly develop in a larger pouch this far out several smaller vortices can form and it can take a couple days for one to become dominant.  Even then if the initial dominant vortex is still fairly weak 1005mb's give or take, it is subject to re-formation under any intense sustained convection and can throw the 5 day track off  by hundreds of miles. 


Dorian last year is a good example

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3 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

After this satellite outage, 92L is looking much better organized. Also, the new model runs are much stronger and further west. Overall, bad trends tonight.

Eh not sure I agree. 0z gfs is a complete whiff East. Euro is a complete whiff. Icon is a complete whiff. Not much has changed 

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Good Monday morning,  I think "potential" ISAIAS continues to be worth monitoring for indirect impacts on our NYC forum area (rip current?, enhanced rainfall?), next week. First we need two get a named storm.  GFS/EC are minimal,  UK and GGEM do develop a storm. Uncertainty=plenty of.   For the record have attached six ensemble graphics. What am pretty sure of, is that this will be an eventual turn north or northeast but lat/lon of recurvature of whatever forms??  Could still go into GMEX then turn to the north and northeast?

EPS and GEFS 500 MB winds On August 2. Note RRQ of the upper level jet. Signal for big rain somewhere eastern third of the country. EPS and GEFS track options (EPS a couple into the Gulf).  Then the GFS members and mean flow for Monday August 3 (a day later than the previous 4 ensembles). Point of this is to show the clusters of some of the members of the GFS off the east coast and the overall trough in the east. Finally the NAEFS 52 member ensemble of 24 hour MEAN qpf and it's variability (color coded) for Monday. Lot's of variability is shown but the idea is that there should be decent rain along the east coast on at least one day early or middle of next week. 647A/27

 

Screen Shot 2020-07-27 at 5.50.02 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-27 at 5.51.37 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-27 at 5.53.56 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-27 at 5.55.13 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-27 at 6.06.51 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-27 at 6.09.03 AM.png

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6 hours ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Eh not sure I agree. 0z gfs is a complete whiff East. Euro is a complete whiff. Icon is a complete whiff. Not much has changed 

All models shred this storm except for the  cmc.

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20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All models shred this storm except for the  cmc.

I was gonna say that the 06z GFS seems to lose it, when it begins to recurve in the western Atlantic no?

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