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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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It's unusually active for late July in the basin and as we track the final approach of Hurricane Hanna we're going to immediately shift focus to Invest 92L. The Invest was declared shortly after the African wave rolled off the coast, and odds have risen quickly for development. The European model has been keen on this wave for days and the guidance that develops it shows this as a potential long track system. Plenty of time to watch. 

BKUIsyx.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gonzalo, located about 100 miles east of Trinidad.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on 
recently upgraded Hurricane Hanna, located over the western Gulf of 
Mexico near the southeast coast of Texas.

1. A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde Islands.  
The wave is expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the 
next several days, and a tropical depression could form by early 
next week when the system reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Just a brief update. NHC has 70% odds of development now in the 5 day. Operational and ensemble guidance continues to show a possible long track system, our first of the year. 

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Hanna, located near the coast of south Texas. The National 
Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the remnants of 
Gonzalo, located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. 

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located 
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next 
week while the wave moves westward at around 15 mph across the 
tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

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Models trended way east today.  Being a relatively new homeowner in Palm Beach County, FL, I'm watching this one closely.

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

received_983201372124085.jpeg

Pretty tightly packed tracks there.  I think the continental US gets spared, but not looking good for the islands that got rocked in 2017.

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33 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Pretty tightly packed tracks there.  I think the continental US gets spared, but not looking good for the islands that got rocked in 2017.

This is heading really  close to the US

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Recurve definitely on the table for this one. Trough that moves offshore in 4-5 days leaves a long trailing frontal zone across the atlantic that really serves to keep the ridge from building back over top on the past few runs of the GFS in particular. That frontal zone and the rate at which it decays looks to be the primary player on the field for the long term track of 92L. If it lingers, pretty good chance things slip out to sea, if it decays quickly, the ridge builds back in and things might be a bit more interesting in the US.

gfs_z500_vort_atl_26.png

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3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Recurve definitely on the table for this one. Trough that moves offshore in 4-5 days leaves a long trailing frontal zone across the atlantic that really serves to keep the ridge from building back over top on the past few runs of the GFS in particular. That frontal zone and the rate at which it decays looks to be the primary player on the field for the long term track of 92L. If it lingers, pretty good chance things slip out to sea, if it decays quickly, the ridge builds back in and things might be a bit more interesting in the US.

gfs_z500_vort_atl_26.png

 

Good analysis. Something to watch for sure. The disturbing thing is the trend towards a strengthening hurricane directly striking the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

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Transfer from NY forum... (I didn't realize this was already here)

Aug 2-6 (next week): Eventual ISAIAS? Not a lock yet. A definite weakness in what continues to be a repetitive reformation of an eastern USA trough next week should allow whatever forms in the Atlantic to make a run at the USA, be it a close call recurvature out to sea off the eastern USA seaboard or into the GMEX. Lot's of interesting possibilities, especially when looking at the jet stream configuration. I have the August 2:  00z/26 500mb wind fields. GEFS showing the storm and RRQ potential. The EC EPS has the event further south toward FL but also eastern USA weakness.  The GEFS (00z/26) ensembles show quite a few members making a northward run next week... but is this accurate?  Don't know. It's 8-12 days out. I added the EPS and GEFS idea of tracking whatever is out there.  I do think this has a chance to add some moisture up here.  T 649A/26 transfer 913A/26

Screen Shot 2020-07-26 at 5.30.32 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-26 at 6.13.11 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-26 at 6.14.57 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-26 at 6.08.49 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-26 at 6.09.58 AM.png

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z gfs para

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_42.png

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_45.png

That would be quite the storm for MID Atlantic and SNE...bring it. Too bad its the GFS lol. 
 

All just speculation at this point anyway...but I’d take that option. 

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Question for those more knowledgeable than me.  Due to the coreolis effect, won't storms approaching the US east coast tend to curve to the right and recurve out to sea unless there is a blocking high to the north?  I was just wondering because I rarely see the coreolis effect mentioned.

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23 minutes ago, wkd said:

Question for those more knowledgeable than me.  Due to the coreolis effect, won't storms approaching the US east coast tend to curve to the right and recurve out to sea unless there is a blocking high to the north?  I was just wondering because I rarely see the coreolis effect mentioned.

Generally, yes. And the stronger the system, the greater that tendency. It might help to think of ridging as a lid on a stewpot, preventing a simmering system from escaping to the north and east. 

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Seems like stuff doesn't recurve anymore or it goes way north deep into the conus and dies. Hope this storm breaks that trend because wow.

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2 minutes ago, RevDodd said:

Generally, yes. And the stronger the system, the greater that tendency. It might help to think of ridging as a lid on a stewpot, preventing a simmering system from escaping to the north and east. 

Thanks

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55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That would be quite the storm for MID Atlantic and SNE...bring it. Too bad its the GFS lol. 
 

All just speculation at this point anyway...but I’d take that option. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but we also have a Bermuda high sitting off the east coast.

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Transfer from NY forum... (I didn't realize this was already here) Aug 2-6 (next week): Eventual ISAIAS? Not a lock yet. A definite weakness in what continues to be a repetitive reformation of an eastern USA trough next week should allow whatever forms in the Atlantic to make a run at the USA, be it a close call recurvature out to sea off the eastern USA seaboard or into the GMEX. Lot's of interesting possibilities, especially when looking at the jet stream configuration. I have the August 2:  00z/26 500mb wind fields. GEFS showing the storm and RRQ potential. The EC EPS has the event further south toward FL but also eastern USA weakness.  The GEFS (00z/26) ensembles show quite a few members making a northward run next week... but is this accurate?  Don't know. It's 8-12 days out. I added the EPS and GEFS idea of tracking whatever is out there.  I do think this has a chance to add some moisture up here.  T 649A/26 transfer 913A/262031559938_ScreenShot2020-07-26at5_30_32AM.thumb.png.889473231e129433c4c8c76d5dd0e0d3.png539845743_ScreenShot2020-07-26at6_13_11AM.thumb.png.ce793bcbbae68d6a02df6ca1f38f4395.png1315317966_ScreenShot2020-07-26at6_14_57AM.thumb.png.138ecf8b94fad8936c17439bdbbde7c9.png

1224307848_ScreenShot2020-07-26at6_08_49AM.thumb.png.a33e7ea4f9ece986b96da333a7e2bd35.png

250679349_ScreenShot2020-07-26at6_09_58AM.thumb.png.3b25542d562aa51b2c754a379405e9c6.png

Early and just speculation. A trough in this pattern may break down WATL 500 hPa heights and allow a TC to gain latitude, but how much does it break down and how long does it remain weak/displaced east? This pattern can be tricky. 500 hPa heights generally want to rebuild over top and we've seen SERs rebuild rather quickly into the SE; therefore, it may not be a slam dunk this potential upcoming long-tracking TC misses the SE or ECONUS until very late in the forecast period as ENS tracks could just as well resolve bending back solutions after days of solutions showing broader recurve, including some into the maritimes. We'll just have to have a little patience. Hard to have confidence in any solution that far out except perhaps definitely seeing the greater threat to the Lesser and Greater Antilles this upcoming weekend.
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It looks like either a 1996 Edouard C#$% T$%@×, or a Hugo/Fran type deal to me...one or the other.
Hugo huh... Funny you mention that b3eaf733a4b40a7c56b7e0b97e620188.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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I know it's 10 days out, but what does the ECMWF say about 92L? I get it on Tropical Tidbits out to 240 hrs, but with 1-day increments and no view of the Atlantic, it's a bit difficult to figure out what it's doing with the storm.

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Just now, larrye said:

I know it's 10 days out, but what does the ECMWF say about 92L? I get it on Tropical Tidbits out to 240 hrs, but with 1-day increments and no view of the Atlantic, it's a bit difficult to figure out what it's doing with the storm.

Initially it was very robust with a strong hurricane, but has recently driven a weak 92L into the northern Caribbean before eventually dissipating. Not that it matters much right now. 

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15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Initially it was very robust with a strong hurricane, but has recently driven a weak 92L into the northern Caribbean before eventually dissipating. Not that it matters much right now. 

Agreed ... too far out. Was just curious.

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