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Major Hurricane Douglas


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My latest point and click forecast has sustained winds up to 72 mph with gusts to 107 with winds gradually building between now and 6 pm local time. :o:yikes::twister:

Probably overdone, I can't imagine it being that potent, based on the latest track I'm forecast to be just about 20 miles south of the center.

Here's a link to my PWS ... https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/38704fd0f276d994f67e56b1851919ce

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I am not confident of eyewall interaction with the islands now. Yes the mid-level vortex is slightly tilted north of the low-level vortex, but the convection within the eye band looks like it may miss Oahu entirely if just clip Laie. It's possible that the mid-to-upper southerly flow is nudging the core more WNW besides causing shear.

 

Edit: I should clarify the main islands. If the core were to somehow survive, it should cross the smaller Hawaiian Leeward Islands and atolls. I don't think it will manage that feat as a hurricane, surely not!

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Thankfully it stayed on the north side of the cone, the hwrf did really well in the track of this one.

The local forecast was way off on winds and rain. Forecast for 3-4 inches of rain and we got under 0.1", wind was forecast for gusts over 100 and we didn't gust higher than 30 mph. 

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Premature time of death called by NHC? Since there last advisory the cyclone has maintained deep convection for the past few hours. 

The vortex was devoid of convection for long enough time that 30kt winds likely were not mixing down below 960 hPa. So it wasn't really premature on their part. However, as these things sometimes can do, convection has reformed near maximum vorticity. Could they reclassify it? The system is still sheared, though it looks like the southerly mid-to-upper flow may have backed down some. It's about to pass the dateline and out of the NHC/CPHC/TAFB responsibility. JTWC may pick it up if the trend continues. It would also be renamed if it reintensified into a TS. This should turn NW and then N around an retreating ridge and head off into the northern Pacific, regardless.

0463e43e12bb1b8d83c7fceaa4162a5e.jpg

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

The vortex was devoid of convection for long enough time that 30kt winds likely were not mixing down below 960 hPa. So it wasn't really premature on their part. However, as these things sometimes can do, convection has reformed near maximum vorticity. Could they reclassify it? The system is still sheared, though it looks like the southerly mid-to-upper flow may have backed down some. It's about to pass the dateline and out of the NHC/CPHC/TAFB responsibility. JTWC may pick it up if the trend continues. It would also be renamed if it reintensified into a TS. This should turn NW and then N around an retreating ridge and head off into the northern Pacific, regardless.

0463e43e12bb1b8d83c7fceaa4162a5e.jpg

Zombie storm 

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