NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2020 Eye continues to clear out. Eyewall only open on the NW side now per radar. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2020 First VDM had a closed 23 NM wide eye. Doesn't look open on radar to me. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 12:02Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2020 Storm Name: Hanna (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 6 Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 11:43:38Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.03N 96.00W B. Center Fix Location: 99 statute miles (160 km) to the ESE (120°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,951m (9,682ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 260° at 4kts (From the W at 5mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 59kts (67.9mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 11:33:19Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 133° at 66kts (From the SE at 76.0mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 11:33:45Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 54kts (62.1mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 11:47:08Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 318° at 66kts (From the NW at 76.0mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 11:48:19Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,072m (10,079ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) which was observed 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NE (40°) from the flight level center at 11:33:45Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 25, 2020 Eyewall is not open now, it is closed, 23 nautical mile wide eye. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Eyewall is not open now, it is closed, 23 nautical mile wide eye. Agreed. Should be bombs away now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jbenedet Posted July 25, 2020 Models have been keen on increasing intensity up until landfall and very slow weakening shortly thereafter which makes sense given the marshy nature of the coast near Baffin Bay and the favorable upper level environment. With this, I have to say Corpus Christi is likely in a bad spot here. It looks like it could be the local maxima for rainfall...and the wind remains onshore throughout which will increase the coastal flooding risk despite the surge threat being highest south. *If* —and this is a big if—CC remains in the vicinity of the northern eyewall it’s likely to be the hardest hit area in Texas. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted July 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Models have been keen on increasing intensity up until landfall and very slow weakening shortly thereafter which makes sense given the marshy nature of the coast near Baffin Bay and the favorable upper level environment. With this, I have to say Corpus Christi is likely in a bad spot here. It looks like it could be the local maxima for rainfall...and the wind remains onshore throughout which will increase the coastal flooding risk despite the surge threat being highest south. *If* —and this is a big if—CC remains in the vicinity of the northern eyewall it’s likely to be the hardest hit area in Texas. NHC is forecasting a S of due west motion heading toward landfall. Might be enough to keep Corpus Christi proper out of the strongest winds. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wxmx Posted July 25, 2020 Flooding chances for MBY are pretty high with the increase of cloud envelope and nudge south of the track. Mountains here really squeeze these systems out of their moisture. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2020 977.6 extrapolated on the latest pass. SFMR not that high but the pressure fall continues. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jbenedet Posted July 25, 2020 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: NHC is forecasting a S of due west motion heading toward landfall. Might be enough to keep Corpus Christi proper out of the strongest winds. Yea. True. Will need this to begin verifying soon, to compensate for the larger eye. That said, wind never the main threat with a storm like this. The onshore fetch especially wrt rain and coastal flooding is likely going to be worst in or very near CC.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted July 25, 2020 Only 59 kt SFMR max in the north quad this pass. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Only 59 kt SFMR max in the north quad this pass. Impressive pressure drops, but not seeing it translate to the surface winds. Some of the FL winds have been impressive. Here's the latest VDM Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 13:06Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2020 Storm Name: Hanna (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 6 Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 12:43:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.04N 96.04W B. Center Fix Location: 97 statute miles (156 km) to the ESE (120°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,942m (9,652ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 981mb (28.97 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 240° at 10kts (From the WSW at 12mph) F. Eye Character: Not Available G. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40° to 220° (NE to SW) G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 60kts (69.0mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the SSW (208°) of center fix at 12:37:25Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 283° at 67kts (From the WNW at 77.1mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the SSW (203°) of center fix at 12:36:12Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 60kts (69.0mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix at 12:49:33Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 84° at 77kts (From the E at 88.6mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix at 12:52:08Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,067m (10,062ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) which was observed 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the N (360°) from the flight level center at 12:52:08Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the N (1°) from the flight level center Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthHillsWx Posted July 25, 2020 What is the cause of the large blob of convection south of the storm’s core? Makes it a bit more sloppy in appearance on satellite. Still, Storm is rapidly developing a core and eyewall and should strengthen up until landfall but I wonder if this feature will slow that somewhat Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 25, 2020 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: What is the cause of the large blob of convection south of the storm’s core? Makes it a bit more sloppy in appearance on satellite. Still, Storm is rapidly developing a core and eyewall and should strengthen up until landfall but I wonder if this feature will slow that somewhat land friction combined with surface convergence Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2020 976.8 extrapolated. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2020 Latest center dropsonde. Quite a pressure drop in recent hours. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 13:56Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) Storm Number: 08 Storm Name: Hanna (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 6 Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 25th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 27.1N 96.1W Location: 91 statute miles (147 km) to the ESE (119°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA. Marsden Square: 082 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -186m (-610 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 979mb (28.91 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 26.9°C (80°F) 160° (from the SSE) 13 knots (15 mph) 925mb 507m (1,663 ft) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 23.5°C (74°F) 155° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph) 850mb 1,250m (4,101 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 20.5°C (69°F) 150° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph) 700mb 2,925m (9,596 ft) 15.2°C (59.4°F) 12.1°C (54°F) 150° (from the SSE) 4 knots (5 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 13:28Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 27.09N 96.12W - Time: 13:28:01Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 27.10N 96.12W - Time: 13:32:29Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 979mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 979mb (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 26.9°C (80°F) 850mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) 20.5°C (69°F) 802mb 20.8°C (69.4°F) 16.5°C (62°F) 696mb 15.4°C (59.7°F) 11.3°C (52°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 979mb (Surface) 160° (from the SSE) 13 knots (15 mph) 850mb 150° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph) 696mb 155° (from the SSE) 5 knots (6 mph) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2020 Recon is leaving the hurricane now. Here is the final VDM Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 14:09Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2020 Storm Name: Hanna (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 6 Observation Number: 16 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. ) A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 13:27:49Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.10N 96.13W B. Center Fix Location: 90 statute miles (145 km) to the ESE (120°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,936m (9,633ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 160° at 13kts (From the SSE at 15mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 50kts (57.5mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix at 13:24:35Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 52° at 73kts (From the NE at 84.0mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 13:15:54Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 63kts (72.5mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 13:33:46Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 219° at 77kts (From the SW at 88.6mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 13:34:51Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,071m (10,075ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar and Wind S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) which was observed 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the SE (135°) from the flight level center at 13:34:51Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NW (305°) from the flight level center Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wxmx Posted July 25, 2020 Clearing eye on visible 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted July 25, 2020 It seems the way the core formed it was not able to really tighten up and become a big wind threat. If it had one more day over water, perhaps it could have. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthHillsWx Posted July 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It seems the way the core formed it was not able to really tighten up and become a big wind threat. If it had one more day over water, perhaps it could have. I’d say it has pretty much maximized it’s time over water. It went from a TD to a hurricane in less than 24 hours! Maybe it could’ve gotten a little stronger if everything was perfect but with pressure falls continuing this is RI Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted July 25, 2020 The HWRF did pretty darn well with this. Most of its runs over the last couple days had this system down into the 970s at landfall. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted July 25, 2020 Looks like dry air is filtering out of the eyewall per latest radar. first heavier bands impacting CC now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted July 25, 2020 The outflow sure is impressive this morning. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2020 Beautiful radar presentation currently. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted July 25, 2020 30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It seems the way the core formed it was not able to really tighten up and become a big wind threat. If it had one more day over water, perhaps it could have. It's making a last second effort to consolidate eyewalls. A lot of models had the lowest pressure on land or as it was crossing the coast.. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted July 25, 2020 It'd be nice to get a couple more recon passes, but the new plane doesn't seem to be making any progress. There's not much time left. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Floydbuster Posted July 25, 2020 Here's an 11:30am video update on Hurricane Hanna https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jR7OZ2UEJkE Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted July 25, 2020 18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It'd be nice to get a couple more recon passes, but the new plane doesn't seem to be making any progress. There's not much time left. Yeah not a lot of time, but it is moving slowly so you could sample a good part of the hurricane still. That radar presentation is beautiful and getting better over time. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted July 25, 2020 Goes 16 is pinching off like a lobster. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Floydbuster Posted July 25, 2020 People on the beach in South Padre. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
