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WxWatcher007

Tropical Depression Gonzalo

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9 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Amazing the change in organization from yesterday. Though i guess not too surprising given the nature of these small types of systems. I was sure given those microwave passes and sustained deep convection over the core that it was ready to take off yesterday. Dry air really did a number on it. 

Most of the 12z hurricane models still take Gonzalo to hurricane strength in the next 12-24 hours so maybe they are onto something. 

Interestingly enough last nights Euro maintains the system through the islands with an eventual impact to Hispaniola in ten days.

 VbsaBdp.png

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I wouldn't be shocked if this opens up into an open wave before the islands. The SAL has been fully ingested and given the small size of the system, it would not take much to open up at this point.

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5 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said:

I swear, this storm has such an eerie resemblance to Harvey :yikes:

Meant for the TD8 thread?

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11 minutes ago, Amped said:

Meant for the TD8 thread?

Technically Harvey took a similar track to Gonzalo and also opened up into a wave after passing the islands! Haha 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Technically Harvey took a similar track to Gonzalo and also opened up into a wave after passing the islands! Haha 

I was thinking that too for a minute.  I just couldn't see a reason why someone would mention it at this point. 

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2 hours ago, Amped said:

I was thinking that too for a minute.  I just couldn't see a reason why someone would mention it at this point. 

I didn't mean it in a looney toon crazy forecast way.  If we were in "storm mode," I wouldn't have stated it.  But just stating the fact that where it is currently, the general path forecast, the current forecast where may nearly weaken into a depression....this is all what Harvey did.  Hell, Harvey dissipated into a tropical wave before coming back to life

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Technically Harvey took a similar track to Gonzalo and also opened up into a wave after passing the islands! Haha 

exactly

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Dry air is winning as usual, and has completely obliterated what was a nicely developing core yesterday. There is a notable difference in the evolution of Gonzalo over the next few days between EURO/UKMET vs Hi-Res/SHIPs guidance... interesting.

Given current structure and issues with mid-level dry air, along with the problematic nature of a smaller storm not being able to easily overcome even relatively minor deficiencies would strongly lean toward a euro solution of a much weaker cyclone.

 

If the storm is able to maintain, or strengthen, the forecast steering flow should pique everyone’s interest for the future of the storm. 

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45 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said:

I didn't mean it in a looney toon crazy forecast way.  If we were in "storm mode," I wouldn't have stated it.  But just stating the fact that where it is currently, the general path forecast, the current forecast where may nearly weaken into a depression....this is all what Harvey did.  Hell, Harvey dissipated into a tropical wave before coming back to life

TD8 has a good chance of  rapidly intensifying in the western gulf. so if you're rooting for that, watch TD8,  not GonzaLOL

 

 

 

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Dude is struggling. Looks like a change in directional shear did greatly force very stable air from the SW that had wrapped around from the N. Has prevented core reformation. The low level circulation is still together but it may succumb without persistent convection. Pulsing may be enough to allow it to survive in the short term. Yet it may mix out the southwesterly stable air and get going again. These things are fickle, but it is anemic at the moment.b4cf5b6f27a7afe48270e976ff569e1e.gif&key=28f714b2c22ee18e5095e4dde72d4a87fb9a006e3e2eee3b43e407d6fcd9f6c3

 

 

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Yeah, that -80°C convection is the SE band on the SE side of the LLC. There is new convection going up on the NW side as well. Perhaps it's mixing out the stable air that got in there this morning and can get core reformation. Of course it could also fall apart again. Again, tough to gage this one with it being so close to a stable airmass.830c9f7c66d8c8b3726b4c3e0821cde7.jpg

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Interestingly, though the SAL easterly burst is just north of Gonzalo, the dry air intrusion into the circulation earlier Thursday came from the West and immediate SW of the low level vort max. CIMSS shows that the dry region of air mass that is elongated into the eastern Caribbean is still there. But perhaps the mid level shear isn't quite as infringing as earlier today. Perhaps Gonzalo is mixing out the stable air mass a bit as convection is looking a little more robust at the moment.

tccapture.gif

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NHC still calling for Gonzalo to reach hurricane status prior to the Windward Islands followed by a weakening trend in the ECARIB.

275 
WTNT42 KNHC 240240
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

After ingesting a hefty portion of dry high statically stable air
this morning, Gonzalo appears to be on the comeback trail.  
Enhanced infrared BD-curve imagery shows that a small Central Dense 
Overcast with cloud tops of -80C is redeveloping over the surface 
center.  A compromise of the available subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining 50 kt for this 
advisory.

This morning's upper air sounding from Barbados revealed a very
dry, high statically stable atmosphere with a mean RH of 23 percent
and a CAPE of only 327 J/Kg.  Consequently, Gonzalo will be moving
into a rather harsh thermodynamic environment over the weekend.  As
a result, the NHC forecast calls for weakening beyond the 48 hour
period as it enters the eastern Caribbean sea and dissipation well
south of Hispaniola at day 5, or sooner as a few of the global 
models suggest.  The intensity forecast is basically an update of 
the previous advisory through 48 hours, indicating a hurricane 
approaching and moving over the southern Windward Islands, and a 
faster weakening trend beyond day 2, similar to a consensus of the 
large-scale models.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/12 kt
within the stiff mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by an
anchored subtropical ridge to the cyclone's north.  The song
remains the same, with Gonzalo expected to speed up toward the west
and west-northwest through the entire period.  The NHC official 
forecast is based on a blend of the various consensus aids and is 
down the middle of the tightly clustered guidance.

Key Messages

1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of
the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase,
however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will
be when it moves across the islands.

2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane
or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night.  Hurricane
and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect for some of
the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required
tonight or early Friday.  Interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z  9.9N  50.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 10.2N  52.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 10.7N  55.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 11.5N  58.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 12.3N  61.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 13.3N  64.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 13.9N  67.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 14.4N  73.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

 

024137_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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I said this morning this was do or die for Gonzalo and the storm has made an admirable comeback. NHC thinks that TS short on time however. It has to get a resilient core going sooner rather than later to have a chance. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Recon finding a system that’s once again on life support. 

Yeah, it looks like it's throwing in the towel. These obs are weak sauce. Good for the Windwards as it will just be some gusty rain at this point. I can't imagine this staying closed into the ECARIB with such a shallow vortex.

 

 

recon_AF304-0107A-GONZALO_timeseries.png

recon_AF304-0107A-GONZALO.png

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Yeah, it looks like it's throwing in the towel. These obs are weak sauce. Good for the Windwards as it will just be some gusty rain at this point. I can't imagine this staying closed into the ECARIB with such a shallow vortex.

It fought the good fight, but it’s almost time to hit the showers.

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Easy come, easy go, Gonzalo... 

000
WTNT42 KNHC 252037
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Gonzalo Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
500 PM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

Gonzalo's structure has degraded further since the last advisory. 
Late-arriving ASCAT data showed a well-defined tropical wave with 
winds around 30 kt, but no clear evidence of a closed circulation. 
Grenada reported max winds of 28 kt with a gust to 40 kt, in line 
with the ASCAT observations, while multiple observing stations in 
Trinidad did not report any westerly winds as the system passed. 
There has been no evidence of a well-defined center in visible 
imagery since that time. Given the additional degradation of 
Gonzalo's appearance since it moved closest to those islands, it 
appears that the system has opened into wave and dissipated. 
Therefore, this will be the last advisory issued by the National 
Hurricane Center.

Tropical squalls associated with the remnants of Gonzalo will 
continue to move westward for the next day or so and could bring 
gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of the southeastern 
Caribbean. Please consult products from your national meteorological 
service for information specific to your area. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 11.0N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

 

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