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WxWatcher007

Tropical Depression Gonzalo

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CMC now deepens it in the central Caribbean where t had it dissipating yesterday, and the GFS still has it dissipating.   Seems like an odd run. 

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Nice cyan ring on MW. -80°C hot tower going up in the eastern eye band that has formed. Looks like Gonzalo is going to be our first real ACE producer of the season. Should surpass all the weak sauce stuff combined so far relatively quickly. Might bring 2020 ACE up way above-normal so far heading into August, regardless of its performance in the ECARIB. Of course, yes, there may also be big potential for Gonzalo in the WCARIB if positioning and timing is right considering upper 200 hPa vorticity may deem favorable there.

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Pretty likely the center reformed further north.

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Very impressive development of the CDO in the last five hours on IR... very cold cloud tops now cover all of the COC, it will be interesting to see if this results in a period of notable intensification for Gonzalo.

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50 mph seems a bit low.  The last visible images of the day show convection bubbling up on the west side of the core, trying to form a ring around the center.

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Quote
440 
WTNT42 KNHC 222032
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

Satellite imagery suggests that Gonzalo's intensification has 
paused since the last advisory.  The cyclone continues to show a 
central dense overcast, and microwave imagery indicates a small 
convective ring present under the overcast.  However, the CDO has 
become a bit ragged, and the other banding seen earlier has 
dissipated.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates 
are in the 45-55 kt range, the the initial intensity remains a 
possibly conservative 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/12.  There is no change to the 
track forecast philosophy.  Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- 
to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the 
storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next 60 
h or so.  After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is 
expected.  The new NHC forecast track is again little changed from 
the previous track, and it lies very close to the consensus models.

The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low
confidence. On one side, the cyclone structure, light shear 
environment,and warm sea surface temperatures suggest strengthening,
possibly even rapidly, should occur.  In addition, the SHIPS-based 
guidance and the HWRF still make the system a hurricane.  On the 
other side, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models continue to forecast 
the system to weaken to an open wave by 120 h, possibly due to dry 
air entrainment and large-scale subsidence, and microwave imagery 
suggests that a tongue of drier air is present west and southwest 
of the cyclone.  The NHC intensity forecast again compromises 
between these extremes, showing Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 
36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the GFS/UKMET/ECMWF. 
The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. 
As noted before, the small size of this system makes it 
susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward 
and downward.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of 
this system, as watches could be issued sometime on Thursday.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward
Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and
heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and
timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z  9.9N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 10.0N  46.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 10.1N  49.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 10.3N  51.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 10.8N  54.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 11.3N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 12.1N  60.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 14.0N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 15.0N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

Sticking to CAT1.   This is a lot more bullish than the euro, but not going all in with the HWRF or HMON.   

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Yeah some of the models are going nuts showing Gonzalo becoming a mini-tropical monster.

I'm getting the impression right now that Gonzalo isn't evacuating air and ventilation quite enough. He needs to do some venting.

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Yeah some of the models are going nuts showing Gonzalo becoming a mini-tropical monster.
I'm getting the impression right now that Gonzalo isn't evacuating air and ventilation quite enough. He needs to do some venting.
Upper 200 hPa vorticity is not the greatest. There is also a suppressed MJO. But the biggest issue might even be a lacking in coriolis forces. This thing is riding along at 10°N. Still, it already has a well established and stacked vortex. It doesn't need aid as long as its core closes itself off from hostile environmental factors.
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Gonzalo looks bleh right now.  I don't see it bombing tonight like the HWRF suggests.

There's a lot of dry air to the north and there were plenty of arc clouds on the visible today..

Also looks like northwesterly shear is limiting NW part of the CDO.

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21 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:
Yeah some of the models are going nuts showing Gonzalo becoming a mini-tropical monster.
I'm getting the impression right now that Gonzalo isn't evacuating air and ventilation quite enough. He needs to do some venting.

Upper 200 hPa vorticity is not the greatest. There is also a suppressed MJO. But the biggest issue might even be a lacking in coriolis forces. This thing is riding along at 10°N. Still, it already has a well established and stacked vortex. It doesn't need aid as long as its core closes itself off from hostile environmental factors.

Clearly, both Invest 91L and Gonzalo didn't perform the way I thought they would.

Around 3pm, I thought Gonzalo would be a hurricane by 11pm, and I expected a tropical storm by 11pm in the Gulf of Mexico. I was wrong on both fronts. The last six hours have been pitiful for both our systems. Still a chance for both to exceed expectations tonight and tomorrow, though.

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The guidance is really split on this one so we really are in wait and see mode. With the cyan ring and nascent eyewall earlier today, Gonzalo really had a shot to intensify, but ingestion of dry air and a little bit of shear has really helped limit intensification. 

That said, the system is better organized than it was last night, and there's still a bit of a window for it to get its act together. 

 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The guidance is really split on this one so we really are in wait and see mode. With the cyan ring and nascent eyewall earlier today, Gonzalo really had a shot to intensify, but ingestion of dry air and a little bit of shear has really helped limit intensification. 

That said, the system is better organized than it was last night, and there's still a bit of a window for it to get its act together. 

 

I am a little bothered by how most of the intensity guidance shows Gonzalo as a severe Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Doesn't seem realistic, but 6 out of 8 intensity models show 120 kts+.

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11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I am a little bothered by how most of the intensity guidance shows Gonzalo as a severe Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Doesn't seem realistic, but 6 out of 8 intensity models show 120 kts+.

Huh?   Cat3 is the highest.

oDU4gwc.png

 

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A little stronger & first watches posted.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...GONZALO A LITTLE STRONGER AND HEADING DUE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 45.9W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Barbados.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 45.9 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach
the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane
on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


.

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35 minutes ago, Amped said:

Huh?   Cat3 is the highest.

oDU4gwc.png

 

 

I might have been looking at Douglas. My bad.

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You would honestly think the thing looks like crap based on IR, but then the microwave would reveal it’s still making an effort to close off a core. Odd little critter.

hqE4ZNu.jpg

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Dry air winning the battle this morning. Window for attaining hurricane strength may have passed. Core has been completely eroded and surge of dry air continues. Storm may devolve back to pulses of convection without a sustained core given recent trends

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56 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Dry air winning the battle this morning. Window for attaining hurricane strength may have passed. Core has been completely eroded and surge of dry air continues. Storm may devolve back to pulses of convection without a sustained core given recent trends

Amazing the change in organization from yesterday. Though i guess not too surprising given the nature of these small types of systems. I was sure given those microwave passes and sustained deep convection over the core that it was ready to take off yesterday. Dry air really did a number on it. 

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