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WxWatcher007

Tropical Depression Gonzalo

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TD7 is a VERY impressive looking TD. Has that "primed to go" look. Whatever negative environmental factors are around clearly are not hampering it at the moment. As NHC points out and we have all witnessed, these small systems are extremely difficult to forecast. How about Florence when she shot up to cat 4 the first time in the presence of 40 kt shear and copious amounts of dry air? I am by no means advertising a rapid strengthening of this system but boy, it has a very symmetrical and pretty look especially with recent convection. Hoenestly looks better than some of the earlier storms we had named this year

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Low shear, some dry air to contend with but small core should help. Think current estimates are a bit conservative. 

12z HWRF takes a major into the lesser Antilles on Saturday night and then weakens some once in the Caribbean but still a formidable storm. If short term guidance ends up being too conservative then it should have a higher chance of survival in the Eastern Caribbean. 

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7 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

August and September will rock. I got this sneaky suspicion that N.J./L.I. will be threatened with a major cane late summer. 2020 karma.

Wishful thinking lol...but 2020 has been unique in more ways than one.  So who knows?

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Man this is ramping up. Look at how an MCS is now going to town right over the center and persisting with banding. This is going to allow an MLC to stack over the LLC. We probably already have a tropical storm at the rate this is developing.01257b3c4a98d6cab45ca381b3490cc3.gif&key=aa685923ea2bea31941201fdb722af55d63542c4871b9a74ad73e97e87c73099

 

 

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2 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

August and September will rock. I got this sneaky suspicion that N.J./L.I. will be threatened with a major cane late summer. 2020 karma.

Its crazy how warm the water is up here.

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33 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Man this is ramping up. Look at how an MCS is now going to town right over the center and persisting with banding. This is going to allow an MLC to stack over the LLC. We probably already have a tropical storm at the rate this is developing.01257b3c4a98d6cab45ca381b3490cc3.gif&key=aa685923ea2bea31941201fdb722af55d63542c4871b9a74ad73e97e87c73099

 

 

I’m just getting home to take a look. Best looking Atlantic TC all season lol. 

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000
WTNT42 KNHC 220236
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020

The depression remains quite small in size and its cloud pattern
consists of a compact central dense overcast and some convective
bands on its west side.  The latest satellite intensity estimates
and a recent ASCAT pass support maintaining the initial intensity
at 30 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward at 8 kt.  The track
forecast appears fairly straightforward.  A strengthening
deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should
cause the system to accelerate some toward the west or
west-northwest during the next several days.  This steering pattern
should take the cyclone across the eastern Caribbean Islands and
into the Caribbean Sea this weekend.  The models are in fairly good
agreement and there is high confidence in the track forecast.

The intensity forecast is much trickier.  The models continue to
differ on the evolution of the depression, with the
statistical-dynamical models and some of the hurricane regional
models showing the system becoming a hurricane within the next few
days.  Conversely, the global models show little change in strength
and even dissipate the system as it moves across the eastern
Caribbean Sea.  The global models seem to indicate that a
combination of the cyclone's fast forward speed and associated
shear, and dry air entrainment should prevent strengthening or lead
to weakening.  Given the large amount of uncertainty, only small
changes were made to the previous prediction.  This forecast lies a
little below the consensus models giving slightly more weight to
the global model solutions.  It should be noted that small systems
like Tropical Depression Seven are often difficult to predict as
they are more likely to fluctuate in strength compared to
larger cyclones.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 10.0N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 10.2N  42.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 10.3N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 10.4N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 10.5N  50.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 10.8N  52.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 11.3N  56.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 12.4N  63.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 13.7N  70.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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Not thrilled with the 11pm advisory.  

Intensity looks too weak and the position looks too far north.  I guess NHC is assuming the convection is still rather decoupled from the center.

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Not officially a TS but it’s really important to watch that CDO’s persistence.

The last few hours have looked quite good for organization, and if this can develop a well organized core in say the next 6-12 hours, we could see intensification tomorrow that’s closer to the HWRF and SHIPS than the globals. The small storms are wildcards. Will be fun to watch. 

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59 minutes ago, Amped said:

I guess NHC is assuming the convection is still rather decoupled from the center.

Yeah, looks can be deceiving.  A strong blob of convection near the center does not necessarily mean the surface vortex is spinning up.  A visible loop would be nice, but that'll have to wait til morning.

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Just a matter of time:

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with
indications of it developing convective banding features.  Intensity
estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30
kt and 35 kt respectively.  I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt
estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we
will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon.  The
intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual
degree of uncertainty.  Although the cyclone is likely to remain in
an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and
large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls
for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by
a leveling off thereafter.  This is below the model consensus, but
above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the
cyclone.  It should also be noted that the small size of this
system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations
in intensity, both upward and downward.

The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt.  A
well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to
the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period.  The
official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally
westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods.
This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model
consensus.

Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

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Definitely some dry air messing around in there, but TD 7 is trying to organize an inner core. If it can acquire one this morning that would bode well for intensification.

DkAmXBX.png
 

41879305.gif?0.10103569201067786

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16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Near future Gonzalo: I like the comments-graphics posted on TD 7. 

Attached the EPS spread from 00z/22 as fwiw. 

Screen Shot 2020-07-22 at 8.37.36 AM.png

Please do feel free to share your thoughts here as well! 

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Tiny core with signs of an eyewall developing. Yeah there is dry air to the north that will occasionally get ingested. But all in all, a nice little MDR system for July.
0c4f0966200d3ade104d266f8a35132f.gif

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TD 7 is now classified as TS Gonzalo, but as Windspeed notes above the storm is still clearly laboring to mix out the dry air it ingested. Both visible and IR show Gonzalo trying to wrap around convection to close off an inner core, but it has thus far had difficulty doing so on the western flank. The microwave image I posted earlier showed a nice curved banding signature, and it does look like a nascent eyewall is trying to take shape. 

Having an inner core will go a long way toward creating a path for steady if not rapid intensification.

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Models aren't too thrilled with its survival and I suspect it'll disintegrate once it passes the islands.

Still an early MDR storm is a good sign of an upcoming active season. 

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I don’t know about that. I still think Gonzalo will have trouble in the Caribbean due to the trade convergence/vortex stretching issues Levi outlined last night, but the hurricane guidance is becoming more split from the globals on intensity 5 days from now. I don’t think anyone knows what’ll happen.

ETA: 12z spaghetti intensity guidance.

07L_intensity_latest.png

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24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t know about that. I still think Gonzalo will have trouble in the Caribbean due to the trade convergence/vortex stretching issues Levi outlined last night, but the hurricane guidance is becoming more split from the globals on intensity 5 days from now. I don’t think anyone knows what’ll happen.

ETA: 12z spaghetti intensity guidance.

07L_intensity_latest.png

That’s about as split as you’ll ever see intensity guidance! Being such a small storm, I am not surprised. Definitely 2 distinct camps

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Gonzalo now forecast to become a cat 1

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z  9.9N  43.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 10.0N  45.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 10.0N  47.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 10.1N  50.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 10.4N  52.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 10.7N  55.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 11.4N  58.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 13.0N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 15.0N  71.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/221439.shtml?

Image

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s about as split as you’ll ever see intensity guidance! Being such a small storm, I am not surprised. Definitely 2 distinct camps

I take the spaghetti with a grain of salt generally, but having the HWRF and to a lesser extent HMON so robust with a well defined center has me intrigued. 

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It looks like the fate of the storm will be the short-term latitude.  The northern tracks have it intensifying while the southern tracks have it dissipating.  Levi talked about this being that the northern track would have it slowing down and allowing the dry air get ahead of it while the southern track would keep it in front of the dry air and then getting wrapped up in it.  Will be interesting to see how it tracks over the next couple days.

115766770_896119400897396_2995271258523751254_n.png

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Looks good on approach to the lesser Antilles but the threat of divergence, shear and dry air have me on hold from jumping on the Caribbean cruiser train right now. Environment early next week looks potentially favorable, but will have to endure unfavorable conditions over the weekend.

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