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Winter 2020-21 Discussion


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9 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m confused. What’s the big deal with a spiking positive AO in November? It seems to me that it would be a waste if the AO was to dive negative in mid November when our climatology says we don’t get snow. We never do wall to wall winter, so I’d rather it be bad in November and recover for our Christmas blizzard. :weenie:.

edited to note beaten to the punch.

The only concern in my mind is if the SPV remains strong and begins to couple with the troposphere and eventually we end up with sustained lower heights down toward the surface. If that sort of thing happens in the Fall it can become a fixture for winter.

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15 hours ago, frd said:

If I recall correctly last November provided the old reliable head fake with a rather - AO.  The real move up with the AO did not take place until December I believe.  

This would lend support to the BAMWX winter forecast IF it holds, Stadiumwave just pointed this out in the New England forum...the coldest anomalies in the ENSO zones have moved west. Definitely a bad sign:  

 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This would lend support to the BAMWX winter forecast IF it holds, Stadiumwave just pointed this out in the New England forum...the coldest anomalies in the ENSO zones have moved west. Definitely a bad sign:  

 

I think you should say this in a slightly different way a few times everyday. 

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52 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You saying that just put our winter situation in perspective.  Of course just takes one good hit early in the season to blow that out of the water.  

2009-10...

December, then Jan was warm and Feb came along.

So yes.  Have to wonder if we'll ever see another year like that in our lifetimes.

The best events just seemingly come out of nowhere. ;-)

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1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

2009-10...

December, then Jan was warm and Feb came along.

So yes.  Have to wonder if we'll ever see another year like that in our lifetimes.

The best events just seemingly come out of nowhere. ;-)

Might want to check those stats on Jan 2010. It was nearly 3 degrees below normal here. Not too snowy until the end though.

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45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Might want to check those stats on Jan 2010. It was nearly 3 degrees below normal here. Not too snowy until the end though.

Yeah we had a 'snow drought' until the cold powder event at the end of the month ( a fav of mine) but it was hardly a torch lol.

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I haven't been  through  the entire thread in this group or in the general forums but I am increasingly bothered by the amount of groupthink regarding the winter.

 it seems the data is overwhelming that the La Nina  whether it's moderate or strong …  only reaches that intensity for short interval of time  -  DEC - and that the La Nina is going to significantly weaken in the second half of the winter. Again I do not know if others have mentioned this but seems to me that this  is being overlooked buy a lot of folks and I think this is a huge mistake

 The second issue has to do with the amount of incredibly warm water that is piled up in the Eastern Pacific  along the immediate west coast of Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. I have looked on the SST maps   on  weatherbell and  weathermodels   sites  along with other sources and so far I have yet to see a La Nina  with that much warm water piled up with that sort of intensity along the west coast of North America.

 Maybe somebody else has found something that matches it but so far I haven't seen anything. So I am concerned that these the two things are being overlooked by a lot of people. 
 

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52 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

I haven't been  through  the entire thread in this group or in the general forums but I am increasingly bothered by the amount of groupthink regarding the winter.

 it seems the data is overwhelming that the La Nina  whether it's moderate or strong …  only reaches that intensity for short interval of time  -  DEC - and that the La Nina is going to significantly weaken in the second half of the winter. Again I do not know if others have mentioned this but seems to me that this  is being overlooked buy a lot of folks and I think this is a huge mistake

 The second issue has to do with the amount of incredibly warm water that is piled up in the Eastern Pacific  along the immediate west coast of Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. I have looked on the SST maps   on  weatherbell and  weathermodels   sites  along with other sources and so far I have yet to see a La Nina  with that much warm water piled up with that sort of intensity along the west coast of North America.

 Maybe somebody else has found something that matches it but so far I haven't seen anything. So I am concerned that these the two things are being overlooked by a lot of people. 
 

Not much group think here. Might lean towards weenie think lol, but overall I think we have a pretty nice exchange of information and independent/objective contributions wrt possible outcomes for the upcoming winter. I read the CWG article that included your general thoughts, so please expand on those itt. 

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Hey guys. I have a question for who may can answer it. Ben noll posts alot on Twitter and said tonight he believes the mjo should focus  moreso in the Indian Ocean instead of the maritime continent for winter. If that happens, would that be better for a colder outcome than normally would happen in a laniña? 

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Interesting as well are the small cold SST anomalies that have recently popped between Newfoundland and the UK. Someone with more knowledge than me probably knows why that is (winds causing upwelling or something). A lot of -NAO years I have looked at had cold SSTs off the coast of Newfoundland, albeit much stronger than what we see now. 

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11 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hey guys. I have a question for who may can answer it. Ben noll posts alot on Twitter and said tonight he believes the mjo should focus  moreso in the Indian Ocean instead of the maritime continent for winter. If that happens, would that be better for a colder outcome than normally would happen in a laniña? 

In theory, without considering other factors, it would be "better". We really want the forcing to be a bit further west/further east though.

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10 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Interesting as well are the small cold SST anomalies that have recently popped between Newfoundland and the UK. Someone with more knowledge than me probably knows why that is (winds causing upwelling or something). A lot of -NAO years I have looked at had cold SSTs off the coast of Newfoundland, albeit much stronger than what we see now. 

Right now the SST configuration in the North Atlantic looks awful for -NAO. This is definitely not what you want to see cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Exactly,  fast Pac flow has been setting records for past couple years in regards to super fast jet stream and breaking down + PNA attempts.  

Agreed.  I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. 

At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region.  If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB.  As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter?

Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular! :weenie:

509KFe2.png

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