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Winter 2020-21 Discussion


CAPE
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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Odds are this winter will be better in the snowfall dept. Would be difficult not to be. It could still be completely awful by most folk's standards though. If your yard received 6" of slop spread over 3-4 events, with 5 total days of snow on the ground, in an overall torchy winter, would that really be more satisfying than last winter?

Absolutely.  

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Odds are this winter will be better in the snowfall dept. Would be difficult not to be. It could still be completely awful by most folk's standards though. If your yard received 6" of slop spread over 3-4 events, with 5 total days of snow on the ground, in an overall torchy winter, would that really be more satisfying than last winter?

I mean... it’s pretty much Richmond, so 6” is something I’ll take no questions asked. Much better then the less than half an inch from last year that was split up between 2 separate events, both of which melted before I could get home. (I think 1 was november 11th-ish? And the other was February 20 I believe)

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20 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Just moved from Southeast Elkridge to pretty much the far northwest part of Ellicott City, so hoping that's a good omen for this upcoming winter and many to come.

Nice! Couple hundred feet of elevation certainly will. You’ll notice it in marginal events for sure, which are probably most of our events this coming year...

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For those interested in the prediction value of the GloSea5 model and the seasonal winter NAO phase, great post here by Grit.

<

The Met Office prides itself on its predictions of the NAO with its seasonal model.  I looked at the NAO prediction from prior October seasonal model output back to Oct 2009 (this is the oldest date in the archive on the seasonal model site - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean).  In looking at the charts,  I would say that in 9 of the 11 years, the October prediction of the NAO on the model was a good one.  The 2 misses were in Oct 2013 and 2015.

 

Here was the Oct seasonal output from 2010 and 2011 - both quite good with the NAO prediction (-NAO in 2010-2011 / +NAO in 2011-2012), with both of those being La Nina winters.

 

dfs7TC2.png

 

Hs8lFjl.png

 

Finally, here is a chart from the Met Office showing hindcasts for their prediction of the NAO with the GloSea5 seasonal model for the winters of 1993 to 2012.  The results are pretty good.  Note: this is the NAO prediction from the Nov1 release each year - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059637

 

84PSN2M.png

 

>

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3 hours ago, frd said:

 

For those interested in the prediction value of the GloSea5 model and the seasonal winter NAO phase, great post here by Grit.

<

The Met Office prides itself on its predictions of the NAO with its seasonal model.  I looked at the NAO prediction from prior October seasonal model output back to Oct 2009 (this is the oldest date in the archive on the seasonal model site - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean).  In looking at the charts,  I would say that in 9 of the 11 years, the October prediction of the NAO on the model was a good one.  The 2 misses were in Oct 2013 and 2015.

 

Here was the Oct seasonal output from 2010 and 2011 - both quite good with the NAO prediction (-NAO in 2010-2011 / +NAO in 2011-2012), with both of those being La Nina winters.

 

dfs7TC2.png

 

Hs8lFjl.png

 

Finally, here is a chart from the Met Office showing hindcasts for their prediction of the NAO with the GloSea5 seasonal model for the winters of 1993 to 2012.  The results are pretty good.  Note: this is the NAO prediction from the Nov1 release each year - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059637

 

84PSN2M.png

 

>

The new UKMET run is ugly as it gets. It’s showing a very strong < -2C La Niña for Dec, Jan, Feb. the H5 is extremely ugly too: 

 

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I understand that it's fun to analyze and prognosticate, so I'm not sh*tting on anything anyone comes up with in regards to their personal forecasts, but...

I feel like the last few winters have really frustrated the long-rangers. Blame it on whatever you want to blame it on, but I simply can't trust analogs and/or long-range modeling any more. Nina, Nino, Nada, blocking, no blocking, solar, PNA, EPO, AO, whatever...winter is completely up in the air. We won't know sh*t until it's pretty much on top of us. 

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

I understand that it's fun to analyze and prognosticate, so I'm not sh*tting on anything anyone comes up with in regards to their personal forecasts, but...

I feel like the last few winters have really frustrated the long-rangers. Blame it on whatever you want to blame it on, but I simply can't trust analogs and/or long-range modeling any more. Nina, Nino, Nada, blocking, no blocking, solar, PNA, EPO, AO, whatever...winter is completely up in the air. We won't know sh*t until it's pretty much on top of us. 

We pretty sure it wont be a Nino. :D

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On 10/9/2020 at 6:45 PM, CAPE said:

Odds are this winter will be better in the snowfall dept. Would be difficult not to be. It could still be completely awful by most folk's standards though. If your yard received 6" of slop spread over 3-4 events, with 5 total days of snow on the ground, in an overall torchy winter, would that really be more satisfying than last winter?

Yes. That would mean a couple more events that would give us some semblance of anticipation prior to the overnight winter weather advisory from midnight to 5AM.

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