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Tropical Storm Fay

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Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have 
shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North 
Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer 
Banks today.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft 
investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the 
center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and 
that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east 
and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the 
system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity 
of 40 kt.

Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an 
area of light to moderate westerly shear.  These environmental 
conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday.  
After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the 
mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of 
the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification.  Fay 
should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or 
Saturday. 

Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a
highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally
northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic
and an approaching mid-latitude trough.  The 12Z dynamical model
guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close
to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center 
reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the 
dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model 
fields imply.  As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side 
of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is 
indicated in the model fields. 

The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a 
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the  
mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated 
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic 
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains 
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. 
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a 
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, 
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 35.5N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 37.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 39.0N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 41.6N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1800Z 45.3N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0600Z 49.1N  70.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re-posting this here-

Latest WPC model discussion. This thing is practically on the doorstep and confidence is below average lol.

Quote

Preference: 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CMC blend Confidence: Slightly below average

The 12Z NAM appears to be too fast with the surface low almost from initialization, though it tends to slow a bit toward 11/00z. However, both the 12Z NAM/GFS are faster with the surface low than much of the 00Z non-NCEP guidance, and remains so through 11/12z. The 12Z NAM/GFS are generally weaker with the surface system, and tend to draw it back westward toward the broad long wave trough crossing the Mid Atlantic and New England through the period.

Though the trend in the 12Z non-NCEP guidance has been to bring the track of the surface low back west, it is still slower and further east than the 12Z NCEP guidance. The change in the 12Z ECMWF surface low track seems to be tied to how the mid level systems are interacting, as the 12Z ECMWF has closed off a mid level system over the eastern OH Valley. While the change in the 12Z ECMWF is concerning, it seems to have embraced the general westward shift all of the 12Z guidance.

In the end, the preference has not changed, despite the rather large change in the 12Z ECMWF. However, since it is not clear how the mid level interactions will ultimately impact the surface low track, forecast confidence is dropped to slightly below average.

 

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This is what you would call a tropical slam dunk (or in general a meteorological slam dunk). This is precious for this region and also the first to experience an early season record.

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4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

This is what you would call a tropical slam dunk (or in general a meteorological slam dunk). This is precious for this region and also the first to experience an early season record.

You are in a really good place for this one. Enjoy!

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What better way to make my 20,000th post than talking about tropical impacts here. :) 

18386187.gif?0.9721125400926638


What we now call Fay was able to take advantage of a favorable environment today, sitting over the warm Gulf Stream and a pocket of less wind shear. What was a disorganized system around midnight last night with a decoupled low level center near Wilmington, NC and mid level vortex further east, we saw the system gradually organize due to convection causing vortex stretching which allowed for the original LLC to effectively dissipate and a new one to take shape. 

Importantly, this reformation occurred further away from land, and near convection. That has allowed for more organization, and while recon originally found a broad LLC, it also found 40kt winds in the convection and a more distinct LLC on the second pass. 

iWjS5vv.jpg

Since recon left, we’ve seen a continued increase in organization near the center and increased velocities in a nascent core. Should we see more convection fire tonight intensification should occur.  

To be clear, the system is still lopsided, and the center is tilted. The best window for strengthening is the next few hours as Fay traverses the Gulf Stream.

natlanti.c.gif
Even then, you’ll notice that SSTs along the MD/DE coasts do not dramatically drop off. That may allow for slowed but continued development or at the very least steady state through tomorrow. Proximity to land may inhibit that.

Now to the track forecast.

There is a lot of track sensitivity. The NHC suggested in their discussion that he eastward reformation may keep this further offshore. We’re just going to need to watch the long term movement of the new center to see which camp—Delmarva landfall or landfall further north—is right.

Either way, more organization should allow for bands to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the coast as early as tomorrow. Verbatim, the Euro had TS gusts along the MD/DE coasts. I’m a bit surprised the NHC didn’t go with a TS Warning. Rain is the biggest threat and there will be winners and losers.

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FXK2NFz.png
 

vWsZg31.png

 

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We’ll see what happens if anyone gets some squally weather west of the bay, I’m a candidate being in Dundalk. Thinking maybe just a chance of a few showers but we’ll see. Maybe this is a precursor for something bigger later down the road:D

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19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Enjoy your wet wind...I may tan tomorrow 

Nice!

Yea...the eastern crew will be blinded by RAIN and we will be blinded by SUN :sun:

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I think the biggest issue for the models is not having a definitive CoC to initialize from. 
 

that said, still time for a NAM’ing

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Peak 2020 would be for DCA to hit 90 then get flooded out.

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Should be departing in the next 30 minutes or so per the recon plan. Three things I’m watching:

1) Has the surface circulation tightened

2) What is the central pressure 

3) What is the overall heading

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When I was chasing Dorian, as I entered Southport I saw the most beautiful sunset of my life. I still regret I didn’t stop the car and take a picture. The contrast was beyond words. 

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