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Tropical Storm Fay


wdrag
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1 hour ago, Animal said:

Understood 

people always question my snow totals in winter....I question rain.

from what I see. My Davis I took down months ago  was good.  Tube I bought for that coohr stuff is awsome.

radar estimate are typically wrong with Mt Holly. You don’t see rain....as in snow.

sold my house & gf & wife moving to Portland Maine.

my point is get a reputable rain guage.

That's gonna be expensive, hope ya got a good gig up there :)

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Nothing burger in Wading River.

Occasional squalls when a band moves through. 

Occasional sun. 

Mainly just fast moving clouds and some wind.

Water is a bit odd. Swells from the NE. Wind from the SE. The effect on moored boats is to be pushed off short to the NW yet get a broadside slam from the east. 

 

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Not really finding any official wind gusts that approach 60mph which was what the storm was advertised as at its peak. Of course that is over the ocean. All the locations I checked were in the 30s and 40s for peak gusts. Can you imagine how anemic some of these other named storms must have been when they had sustained winds of  40-45.

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1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Not really finding any official wind gusts that approach 60mph which was what the storm was advertised as at its peak. Of course that is over the ocean. All the locations I checked were in the 30s and 40s for peak gusts. Can you imagine how anemic some of these other named storms must have been when they had sustained winds of  40-45.

Yeah, clearly subtropical but good storm regardless. 

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hey look, a couple of internet dweebs questioning globally-recognized scientists on a weather forum. 

18 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Not really finding any official wind gusts that approach 60mph which was what the storm was advertised as at its peak. Of course that is over the ocean. All the locations I checked were in the 30s and 40s for peak gusts. Can you imagine how anemic some of these other named storms must have been when they had sustained winds of  40-45.

 

16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, clearly subtropical but good storm regardless. 

 

15 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yeah, I agree.

 

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3 hours ago, Animal said:

Update

1.1 of rain

Still at just 1.10" this evening? There's a bunch of gauges in the NJWxNet up your way with 2"+, and I definitely don't doubt what you measured in the plastic 4" gauge (I coordinate the program out of Rutgers; those gauges are top notch). The 2.52" is at High Point (not all the way up, but 1388'), and the 2.12" is our brand new station at the top of the main lift at Mountain Creek (~1394'), which I believe is pretty close to your location? Both are quite similar in elevation to yours, so doesn't seem to be a topographic thing. I'm really surprised by the difference and curious to see what other reports in the area show tomorrow. 

image.thumb.png.d330a50040de72462b5116afa3a66ee7.png

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8 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Still at just 1.10" this evening? There's a bunch of gauges in the NJWxNet up your way with 2"+, and I definitely don't doubt what you measured in the plastic 4" gauge (I coordinate the program out of Rutgers; those gauges are top notch). The 2.52" is at High Point (not all the way up, but 1388'), and the 2.12" is our brand new station at the top of the main lift at Mountain Creek (~1394'), which I believe is pretty close to your location? Both are quite similar in elevation to yours, so doesn't seem to be a topographic thing. I'm really surprised by the difference and curious to see what other reports in the area show tomorrow. 

image.thumb.png.d330a50040de72462b5116afa3a66ee7.png

2 stations that I see on weather underground have 2.57 and 2.68 in highland lakes.  I know those aren't perfect though. 

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2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Not really finding any official wind gusts that approach 60mph which was what the storm was advertised as at its peak. Of course that is over the ocean. All the locations I checked were in the 30s and 40s for peak gusts. Can you imagine how anemic some of these other named storms must have been when they had sustained winds of  40-45.

Typically you'll find max gusts matching the projected sustained winds of landfalling systems.  There were a couple of reports of 57 mph gusts along the Jersey shore, one in southern Monmouth county and another one in Southern NJ near Cape May.  That's close enough to the 60 mph projected sustained winds.

 

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29 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Still at just 1.10" this evening? There's a bunch of gauges in the NJWxNet up your way with 2"+, and I definitely don't doubt what you measured in the plastic 4" gauge (I coordinate the program out of Rutgers; those gauges are top notch). The 2.52" is at High Point (not all the way up, but 1388'), and the 2.12" is our brand new station at the top of the main lift at Mountain Creek (~1394'), which I believe is pretty close to your location? Both are quite similar in elevation to yours, so doesn't seem to be a topographic thing. I'm really surprised by the difference and curious to see what other reports in the area show tomorrow. 

image.thumb.png.d330a50040de72462b5116afa3a66ee7.png

I am in the valley about 4 min from Mountain Creek and I had 2.15

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

hey look, a couple of internet dweebs questioning globally-recognized scientists on a weather forum. 

 

 

 

LOL see my post just above (well there's one in between.)  Things like the above stick in my mind and from memory I can recall that at landfall the max gusts reported often match up with the projected sustained winds at landfall.  So there's no reason for anyone to be "suspicious" of the 60 mph sustained wind report, the two reports of 57 mph gusts on the Jersey shore back that up.

Back to current conditions, out here in the Poconos we have a flash flood warning extended to 1:30 AM DOT has shut down major roads and is warning people not to go outside.  Rain is still falling pretty hard here, might get 3-4" at this rate by the time it's done.

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Fay was basically a moderate summer coastal storm in terms of impacts. 

Nothing too memorable though we did get a period of very heavy rains and wind. Hopefully a precursor to something bigger in August/September.

A real tropical system (although may have been more hybrid in the end) making landfall in NJ is quite notable anytime, particularly in the 1st half of July. Thankfully it was a home grown development that just blew up last night and small in size, not a huge system like Irene or Sandy that would've caused big surge flooding. On the east side LI would've gotten hit much worse in that case. This was something like a 12/30/00 of tropical systems. 

I'll be honest that it was a decent wind event but overall lame where I am. Max here I'd say was about 40mph, there's some small branches/twigs on my street. A little over 0.6" at FRG (closest station to me) and ISP, 40-50 mph gusts if you were lucky, and the heavy rain lasting maybe an hour other than showers here and there with no severe that I know of on the east side was a letdown. NYC, NJ and western Nassau did well but models generally did have the good rain extending further east than what ended up happening. Consensus still did have the western half of Suffolk getting to maybe 1.5". Those lame HRRR runs and couple of GFS, NAM runs ended up being right. Don't want to say a bust on the rain, but.... The east side of a tropical system up here is nowhere to be if you want good rain (Other than Irene-it tracked just west of me in Long Beach and I still had over 5" of rain). The track ended up being just west of the NHC path as well, went almost due north from where it formed instead of NNE. The ground will be baked in a couple days again with the 90+ heat incoming. 

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Wantage (southern part) only 1.93. Beneficial: have reviewed a few posts on this particular page of FAY and appreciate the comments, especially data nw NJ.  The radar estimates to me appear to be too low. Appears to me USA models + GGEM generally out performed EC and especially UK on track/rainfall expectations.  A decent winter-like nor'easter in subtropical environment. Have one 4a-4a QPF map... and will add an update for entire forum area around 11A.  In the meantime, max gusts per OKX to supplement earlier max gusts posted on this thread. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

and last evenings rainfall totals for the OKX area:  https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202007102343-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

PHI rainfall totals as of just before midnight. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

 

Screen Shot 2020-07-11 at 4.53.31 AM.png

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