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Tropical Storm Fay


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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 10 2020 - 12Z Sat Jul 11 2020 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

...Mid Atlantic/New England...
...20Z Update...
Pretty big QPF/ERO changes at this update as the newly formed 
Tropical Storm Fay will track a bit closer to the coast and into 
inland New England than was previous forecast. This then brings 
the axis of heaviest rain farther inland; along and east of the 
I-95 corridor across portions of DE, eastern PA, into NY and 
points east.  As precipitable water values of over 2.25 inches 
work inland aided by easterly low level flow with the track 
orienting NNE over the period, expect efficient rain rates and 
training (as the propagation vectors and mean wind align) not only 
across much of Delaware, eastern PA (Poconos), NJ and into update 
NY associated with northern quadrants but with thunderstorms 
moving across Long Island and points north into CT/RI and MA.  
Areal average precipitation is around 1-3+ inches with locally 
higher amounts possible.  Given much of this region has received 
an abundance of rain over the past several days, especially 
eastern PA/NJ and update NY, feel soils are sensitive to 
additional rainfall.  Therefore, a Slight Risk was introduced 
based on the latest QPF/model trends.  A Moderate Risk may be 
needed, especially for the urban sector, if the QPF continues to 
highlight this region and trend upward.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

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some tropical storms that hit us directly...

tropical storm Brenda on July 30th 1960 caused 3-5" of rain and winds gusting to 35mph...that's a benchmark for a none hurricane hitting our area in July...Doria in Aug 1971 was a little stronger and wetter...July 1996 had one (the name escapes me) with a direct hit but not as strong as the last two I mentioned...

edit...

there was another none named storm in July 1972 that gave the area 3" of rain...

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47 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Hard to really pinpoint the center. NHC said it just reformed NE a little? The convection is all east of it so that usually means the center will try to locate closer to it. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Crazy that we have a homegrown developing TS so close by. Usually we get remnants, or long tracked systems from the Caribbean, Cape Verde etc. 

Storms like Fay will likely become more common in the future. 

Who knows soon we might get a home grown cane developing off the Delmarva. 

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Storms like Fay will likely become more common in the future. 

Who knows soon we might get a home grown cane developing off the Delmarva. 

I'm envisioning something like August 1893.  We've also been seeing tracks closer to the coast in the past decade or so, not the Eastern Long Island/New England tracks like what Gloria and Bob had.

 

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