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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

I enjoyed tracking it and watching the genesis of it, blows that it was such a lame duck.. oh well.. hopefully we can get some severe before Whiz melts again

I’m probably going to be melting real soon but this summer is fooking ridiculous. This is the biggest load of bullshit I’ve ever seen. This isn’t summer...it’s crap. Big fooking deal it got humid out and we’ve had some 90’s. It was freaking cold through much of June. Even the west had snow in June. Monday doesn’t look good anymore. Screw these freaking models...all over the place. Don’t even run them past 2-3 days anymore...they’re crap. I wonder if perhaps less flights are really impacting data availability? Ehhh who cares...doesn’t change the fact that this summer sucks. If we don’t get anything good this week you can bet a melt is in store. 

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I’m probably going to be melting real soon but this summer is fooking ridiculous. This is the biggest load of bullshit I’ve ever seen. This isn’t summer...it’s crap. Big fooking deal it got humid out and we’ve had some 90’s. It was freaking cold through much of June. Even the west had snow in June. Monday doesn’t look good anymore. Screw these freaking models...all over the place. Don’t even run them past 2-3 days anymore...they’re crap. I wonder if perhaps less flights are really impacting data availability? Ehhh who cares...doesn’t change the fact that this summer sucks. If we don’t get anything good this week you can bet a melt is in store. 
Melting soon? Lol. That post indicates that one is currently happening.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

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16 minutes ago, DomNH said:

88/75 at ASH. Someone issue a swampass warning.

Really seeming like the northeast is the mid Atlantic/southeast in this pattern. Fay didn’t recurve along a surface cold front as one would normally expect. Tropical airmass before and after she passes. Cape cod may be our OBX this year, if you will. Heads up for big TC threats if general pattern persists into August. 

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Really seeming like the northeast is the mid Atlantic/southeast in this pattern. Fay didn’t recurve along a surface cold front as one would normally expect. Tropical airmass before and after she passes. Cape cod may be our OBX this year, if you will. Heads up for big TC threats if general pattern persists into August. 

Just about every TC I've experienced has had CoC wx the day after - worked from Donna to the remains of Earl 50 years later.  Not this time.

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0.34” here.  

Some breezy conditions at times, MVL has had a couple hourly obs of 25-30mph gusts which sounds about right.

There was a good low level jet though for the summer time as MMNV1 at the picnic tables was sustained at 40mph and gusting to 60mph out of the SSE for a while early this morning.  

30-40G50-60 out of SE for a sustained period is pretty decent for summertime jet across the summits.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Just about every TC I've experienced has had CoC wx the day after - worked from Donna to the remains of Earl 50 years later.  Not this time.

In fairness, those were late(r) season where cooler airmasses were ready to pounce.  Bob too, was coc hours later.Bertha 96 or a July TC would be a better match. 

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

In fairness, those were late season where cooler airmasses were ready to pounce. Bertha 96 or a July TC would be a better match

We haven’t seen a legit CP cold front in quite some time, going back at least a month. I mean, I can’t rule out one, but the point stands. CP air masses don’t typically arrive in the subtropics in climatological summer. That’s basically my point. We’re seeing more subtropics than mid latitude climo lately. A bit of a tangent, but even in winter we had cold fronts that brought us *down* from AN to normal to slightly AN for a chunk of the season. Faux cold. Separate factors then or partially related? Either way, appears a long term “persistence“ phenomenon in 2020...

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We haven’t seen a legit CP cold front in quite some time, going back at least a month. I mean, I can’t rule out one, but the point stands. CP air masses don’t typically arrive in the subtropics in climatological summer. That’s basically my point. We’re seeing more subtropics than mid latitude climo lately. A bit of a tangent, but even in winter we had cold fronts that brought us down to normal to slightly AN for a chunk of the season. Separate or contributing factor? Either way, appears a long term “persistence“ phenomenon in 2020...

Yeah, I see the persistence

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27 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

In fairness, those were late(r) season where cooler airmasses were ready to pounce.  Bob too, was coc hours later.Bertha 96 or a July TC would be a better match. 

Could be.  However, after posting "just about every TC" I recalled (helped by your post) two exceptions.  Hugo and Katrina both were followed by humid wx and both passed to our west, though it was close with Hugo - its huge inland recurve brought it thru the W. Maine mts with gusts to 60+, amazing power for a once-TC that had traveled 1000+ miles over dirt.  Our agency had loggers salvage over 1000 cords of blown down timber from that storm.

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Late afternoon hike up to the summit overlook on Spruce Peak... exposed to the south and the wind is just honking up here.   The weather station says sustained 30s and gusting again in the 50s, now SSW direction.

Probably experiencing the highest winds of this storm?  Glad someone found 50+ gusts.  Ha.  

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