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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection


weatherwiz
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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I am praying to God it isn't always like this. I came here to escape the warmth and humidity. I can go to MD or Delaware and get that basically year-round.

Its not, This is unprecedented this year, I typically get 1-3, 90°F per summer and i have already had 3 and we have nit even reached mid July-Aug.

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Listen to a woman earlier in the pkg store telling the clerk that we have a tropical storm coming with 4" of rain, I told the clerk once she left that she meant 4 raindrops.

I literally have no idea how this even happens. The forecast (from pretty much every outlet I've seen) has been no big deal the entire time. Maybe, maybe there was messaging about flash flood risk early one, but that was pretty quickly changed to localized threat.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Winni is about as warm as you'll ever see this early. We AGW.

Curious to see what the temp is when I'm up there tomorrow. Last week + rain dropped the temp on the small lake near me back into the mid- upper 70s. That dry period really allowed the sfc Ts to torch

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey.. that paper you mentioned yesterday that you wrote that was published.. can you post a copy here or maybe a link?

1993? Yea that might be an issue, haven't seen it since I left URI grad school. Maybe they have an archive. I know why you said this lol but hey good try.

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35 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Phineas has the location for the outdoor weenie camping GTG! 

Right across the street you can start the climb up to Madison, Adams, and Jefferson. 

 

30 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

He’s going to need to install a WebCam for us. 

I have a Nest cam going. I can share it in the winter when the snow starts. I have pretty limited bandwidth here. LOL

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On 7/8/2020 at 2:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Right up the CTRV. Precursor to our big 38’ redux coming in September?

 

On 7/8/2020 at 7:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

They get 3-5 hours heavy rain. We get severe and wind damage. I’ll take the latter 

 

On 7/8/2020 at 7:49 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro? Lol. East side as mets here have been discussing 30-50 mph gusts 

 

On 7/8/2020 at 8:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter and Ginx in alliance on no wind or severe on East side. First time for everything   Let’s see upon  verification if that was a good tag team or not.

We tag

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I literally have no idea how this even happens. The forecast (from pretty much every outlet I've seen) has been no big deal the entire time. Maybe, maybe there was messaging about flash flood risk early one, but that was pretty quickly changed to localized threat.

Facebook.

someone has a relative in the Delmarva who was forecast to get up to 4 inches or hears the Weather Channel say that some places may get up to 4 inches.  They take it to mean that they to will get 4 inches and posts that as if it is expected.  People then run with it without verifying.  Same reason a forecast of 4 to 8 inches of snow with lollis to 10 inches turns into a mass believing they will be getting close to a foot then "we are supposed to get a foot".

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17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I literally have no idea how this even happens. The forecast (from pretty much every outlet I've seen) has been no big deal the entire time. Maybe, maybe there was messaging about flash flood risk early one, but that was pretty quickly changed to localized threat.

Has to be official if it was on Twitter or FB.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hey man, if you can add it to your seasonal total, it’s real. @powderfreak knows what I mean. :lol: 

I am terrible at measuring regular snow, and I will be very delinquent about measuring this daily fluff stuff.

I am glad there is a legit coop site about 2 mins up the road.

I will report obs such as "it is puking snow" and "it looks like about a foot."

 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I am praying to God it isn't always like this. I came here to escape the warmth and humidity. I can go to MD or Delaware and get that basically year-round.

It’s been rare in recent times.  I’m sure it happens from time to time but we are likely talking decades at this level.  Some of the more rural ASOS records in the NNE stations go back to like the 80s/90s?  Not *that* far in the grand scheme of things but enough to get a strong idea for baseline climate.

Maybe something changes for the second half of the warm season... this has started like a winter that exceeds your average seasonal snowfall by a lot already, and it’s only halfway through the winter.

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20 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am terrible at measuring regular snow, and I will be very delinquent about measuring this daily fluff stuff.

I am glad there is a legit coop site about 2 mins up the road.

I will report obs such as "it is puking snow" and "it looks like about a foot."

 

I too follow that approach, but you will be measuring in feet a lot more than I will be.

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18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s been rare in recent times.  I’m sure it happens from time to time but we are likely talking decades at this level.  Some of the more rural ASOS records in the NNE stations go back to like the 80s/90s?  Not *that* far in the grand scheme of things but enough to get a strong idea for baseline climate.

Maybe something changes for the second half of the warm season... this has started like a winter that exceeds your average seasonal snowfall by a lot already, and it’s only halfway through the winter.

The nights are still great. It’s nice and cool/dry here right now. 

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9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The nights are still great. It’s nice and cool/dry here right now. 

I have to admit, with the brazen black bear that has been at the back steps and looked inside a screen door twice now, my wife has dictated a shift to all A/C.  The door vents the kitchen, ha. She’s not leaving the slider doors open.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I have to admit, with the brazen black bear that has been at the back steps and looked inside a screen door twice now, my wife has dictated a shift to all A/C.  She’s not leaving the slider doors open.

You have bears one day and hot air balloons the next. Do you travel with the circus? Haha 

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You have bears one day and hot air balloons the next. Do you travel with the circus? Haha 

It's been active.  Weird year.  Never in 8 years here has any of this happened.  From the heat, to the general circus (summer: fireworks, bears, hot air balloons type stuff)...  2020 maybe?

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