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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection


weatherwiz
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If anything storms like this should be a good exercise of having a storm kit ready to go be it tropical or winter....IE, Generator running, Fuel, Battery, Portable radio, Food, documents. Living down here gives a new meaning to preparedness; when you have the potential monster like Dorian 70 miles to your East there isn’t a lot of time to prepare.

i think most in New England are lax on our Tropical potential seeing we have been lulled by the last 30 years but at some point that will end. 
 

 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think so. Could be nasty ones in western New England tomorrow and into VT.

Should see a Slight risk with the day 2...but at the rate they've been coming out with the outlooks it probably won't be released until after tomorrow. I could see a small area of enhanced too...mainly for wind damage. I want to flatten forests tomorrow. 

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1 minute ago, radarman said:

3km should make C VT take notice for sure. 

... and then we steal your severe

 

 

Over 1.1 inches at the Philly airport from 12 to 1pm,  flash flood warnings up for the second time this week there.

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This lack of convection is actually starting to piss me off. These 3km CAPE values should be sufficient to at least make for a few interesting cells. Am noting though the wind field isn't rather expansive...greatest helicity values actually confined to a relatively small area and displaced from the CAPE. Figures...POS SNE junk BS

image.png.e05134662f2f99f5b53dce2480d26147.png

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5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I read the advanced copy of the Farmers Almanac into the year 2022. It says nothing about tropical anything coming to New England. Plus there are no snowstorms noted either. 

I thought it said “Periods of above and below normal temperatures with occasional precipitation” under the New England sector?

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like sh it.

Most models seem to strengthen some of the bands overnight as they pass through our region...haven’t looked at a lot, but the NAM has a weak midlevel jet moving north through ENE as the system starts opening up. I’m not sure if that’s part of the trigger or not.

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