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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection


weatherwiz
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2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

I have a hard time believing Fay gets yanked hard left like that 

IMO we see Fay hug the coast before landfall east of NYC on LI

Believe it.  There’s an upper level low over the GL that I mentioned a couple days ago that looks to want to become a playa with all this.

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29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've seen like 70-73

You are talking official station dews, he’s talking backyard Davis.  

Models print dews as they think the ASOS will report, not forested backyards.  If they are showing 75-78F dews, Kev probably sees Iowa cornfield 82-84F on his Davis console, lol.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You had it up into PA

Where did I say that?  I see no reason why this doesn’t have the potential to ride up near/over far eastern PA, like Philly.  It all depends on how developed  this Storm becomes.  If it’s weak and diffuse, then the trough GL will have more influence (ie phasing) over it.  If I not then the ULL will act more to steer it keeping the system long the coast.  The Euro has already made a huge jump from being a storm over SE MA to now riding up the Hudson.  Why can’t it keep correcting west?

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21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Where did I say that?  I see no reason why this doesn’t have the potential to ride up near/over far eastern PA, like Philly.  It all depends on how developed  this Storm becomes.  If it’s weak and diffuse, then the trough GL will have more influence (ie phasing) over it.  If I not then the ULL will act more to steer it keeping the system long the coast.  The Euro has already made a huge jump from being a storm over SE MA to now riding up the Hudson.  Why can’t it keep correcting west?

Because that’s not where we want it.  We need everyone to concentrate really hard to try and steer it.

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Heck 38 even had epic wind damage up here.

In case anyone wants to geek out on reading the signs of the 38 hurricane damage in the woods of VT

https://northernwoodlands.org/articles/article/hurricane-1938

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Foster’s colleague Emery Boose has created computer models that reproduce the conditions of historical hurricanes. By entering weather observations and historical documentation of damage on a town-by-town basis, Boose created a model of the storm track and speed, the timing of arrival at any location, and the wind speed and direction for that location over the duration of the storm.

I asked him to run the model for Taplin Hill in Corinth, and he sent me an Excel spreadsheet showing, among other things, wind speed and direction at 5-minute intervals. From it, I could chart the rise and fall of the wind, the period at which it reached its peak, and the ongoing change in direction as the center passed to the west. It matched up well with eyewitness reports and newspaper accounts. The strongest sustained winds were between 8 and 9 p.m. at 77 miles per hour, with gusts reaching 117 miles per hour. They came from the east and then slightly south of east (from 93 to 119 degrees).

Our land, only four miles away, would have experienced the same wind speed and direction. And our hillside, with its 30 percent slope facing east, definitely wore a bull’s-eye, which makes the continued presence of Andrew Jackson, the 180-year-old sugar maple, even more impressive.

 

 

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This hillside, like others blown down in the hurricane, is pockmarked with deep depressions adjacent to correspondingly large mounds. This pit and mound topography looks as if somebody dug a hole and piled the dirt next to it, and it happens anytime the wind uproots a tree. As the roots are ripped from the ground, they carry a mass of soil and stone, excavating a hole. The bigger the tree, the bigger the hole. Over time, the roots and stump decompose, leaving a mound of earth.

One of the more interesting things about this topography is that decades after the tree went down you can stand in the pit, look out across the mound, and see exactly where the tree fell. The 1938 hurricane’s winds came from the southeast, so the conventional wisdom has long held that trees fell to the northwest. But on our hillside, most of the pit and mound pairs faced east, downhill.

Something was wrong.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, klw said:

In case anyone wants to geek out on reading the signs of the 38 hurricane damage in the woods of VT

https://northernwoodlands.org/articles/article/hurricane-1938

 

 

Fantastic read thank you. In 1993 as a grad student I published a paper on the effects of forest ecology from Hurricanes. I used the Harvard Forest extensively. Good stuff

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