wx2fish Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 GFS still bringing it up the Hudson River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: GFS still bringing it up the Hudson River Gfs has no idea what to do with it.. bouncing around alot that run.. also this is further east now then models have it.. I think recon confirms soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Gfs has no idea what to do with it.. bouncing around alot that run.. also this is further east now then models have it.. I think recon confirms soon You thinking cat 1 incoming 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 The naked swirl is opening up and it looks like a new center is trying to form just northeast under developing thunderstorms. Not that this means that much but fun to watch. I want the center to go into Western New England. That brings true tropical air into SNE with breezy conditions and quick moving heavy showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You thinking cat 1 incoming No but a minimal tropical storm as I said above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hmm when I think “outbreak “ I think multiple F2 and above tornados were these jn western areas or Just a bunch of F-0’s in a landfalling tropical system Outbreak is certainly a subjective term but IMO, the best way to sort of quantify it is (speaking for tornadoes here) 1. Climatology 2. Geographic area I think...don't quote me on this but I think usually an event which spawns like 3-4+ tornadoes in our region is considered an outbreak (keeping in mind that our climo is very low). Also, let's not forget how small of a geographic area New England represents then the scale which severe weather/tornadoes occur on. I mean we have had 4 F4 tornadoes occur within a relatively small area...Great Barrington, Windsor Locks, CT, Hamden, CT, Worcester, MA. That's actually pretty impressive...when you factor in aerial size. We have also had more than several events produce 4-5+ tornadoes...yes granted most part they're weak ones but compared to our yearly tornado climo that's alot for one event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Even Hurricane Gloria accounted for only one small spin up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I don't know .. that hi resolution visible looping is pretty fantastically convincing to me... this is an exposed center devoid of anything ...with a displaced wall of squally showers well to the E of best fix... RECON will definitely bias toward that convection as part of their "near land PR modis operendi" but in reality, this Meterologist needs to see a glaciated cu tower at all near that exposed center - and...preferably have the plume not moving across the low-level cyclonic axis of rotation. So yeah...add shear to the limiting factors... Also, I put the 12z on 36 hours over at TT and clicked prev 5 times and across all those cycles, other than very minor insignificant variances...the solutions are identical - GFS operational... So, it may be wrong, but I don't see the model having continuity issues in a vacuum ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 42 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’ll get a for this, but this already looking like a marginal TS on vis with LLC east of OBX. The naked swirl is a distraction from what looks increasingly apparent at this point. Seen uglier convection get a name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Wonder what “we” at Eastern Mass Wx thinks? @40/70 Benchmark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 Saturday shaping to what could be a big severe day...perhaps several wet microbursts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 59 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe down your way, Sucks too, We had some Kings, Rock crab, 2 pecks clams, 30 lobsters. I looked at models for you too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Let’s knock some over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Saturday shaping to what could be a big severe day...perhaps several wet microbursts. nah... what's likely to happen is a latent heat conversion, transient beta-synoptic scaled plume of mid level heat gets abandoned when the vertical structure wanes and ceases and leaves it behind, and that'll effectively CIN the asshole shut like a bull's ass at fly time... 77 DP and 5,000 CAPE choked closed for business.... Save for that one cell over Mt Greylock that rains 5.7" in 2 hours and doesn't move and takes out a campsite of Boy scouts - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: nah... what's likely to happen is a latent heat conversion, transient beta-synoptic scaled plume of mid level heat gets left behind when the vertical structure wanes and ceases and leaves it behind, and that'll effectively CIN the asshole shut like a bull's ass at fly time... 77 DP and 5,000 CAPE choked closed for business.... Save for that one cell over Mt Greylock that rains 5.7" in 2 hours and doesn't move and takes out a campsite of Boy scouts - I was thinking there could be evening/overnight convection...that's a pretty strong s/w working through PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I was thinking there could be evening/overnight convection...that's a pretty strong s/w working through PA days are long ... I suppose it's imaginatively possible we could transition into a quasi, albeit weak TC sounding through dawn...out the ass end by noon... through a transient mid level stranded CIN plume dull afternoon...that moves off and 'unlids' for a late ... yeah ... good luck populating grids at NWS heh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s knock some over looks like a pretty light event. Everything stays upright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s knock some over Spoiler 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Parts of ENE may stay dry, system is probably headed way way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Parts of ENE may stay dry, system is probably headed way way west it's looking for a way to screw me outta even some rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, correnjim1 said: it's looking for a way to screw me outta even some rain lol by ENE not sure what if meant ENE mass or ENE SNE which I would agree, areas in maine might not see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: by ENE not sure what if meant ENE mass or ENE SNE which I would agree, areas in maine might not see much. weak, transitioning system passing straight north over PA is not going to produce more than a few bands of showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 ICON tracks right over SNE. 1-3" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: ICON tracks right over SNE. 1-3" for most. i'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: weak, transitioning system passing straight north over PA is not going to produce more than a few bands of showers. not sold yet this will travel over PA, allot will depend on where the low forms.. then we can get a better handle on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just looking at vis...that exposed llc is a bit elongated looking. there is some inflow toward the exploding convection to the NE so maybe we can drop pressures enough there to shift the main circulation eastward like a secondary triple-point low. The 3k NAM sorta does this, but hooks it more westward anyway into DE/ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Recon found some interesting FL winds near that new LLC. Waiting for them to finish examining that area but this looks like it’s at least a TD to me. and the center is further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Guess we’re not getting pressure data from recon? GFS also looks like a western outlier. 12z Euro coming in west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12z Euro coming in west. way west like the goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s knock some over “Somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 to 50 mph gusts.” Given wind force as an exponential function of velocity, that’s worse than saying the temperature will be in the neighborhood of 30 to 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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