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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection


weatherwiz
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An area of low pressure is set to emerge off the Carolina coast over the next 24-36 hours where environmental conditions are favorable for the emerging low pressure to acquire tropical characteristics and perhaps become our next named system in the Atlantic. While the prospects for a [by definition] tropical system to hit our area, the prospects for impact are vastly increasing. This impact will come in the form of torrential downpours and gusty winds (especially along the coast). 

With not much of a kicker to push the impending system out to sea, the most likely course of action is a track close enough to the coast to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Just how close to the coast will determine where the axis of heaviest rain occurs and where the strongest wind gusts occur (which could be in the 30-45 mph range). Despite how dry it's been, flooding will likely become a problem where the heaviest rainfall occurs. 

Forecast models develop a rather anomalous LLJ for the month of July (in excess of 40 knots) with PWAT values exceeding 2.50'' and theta-e ridge just south of southern New England. All these favor the likelihood for some widespread heavy rainfall. While instability won't be overly large (limited by weak lapse rates), there will be enough instability to yield the potential for embedded t'storms which will only locally enhance rainfall rates. 

The fast overall nature of the heaviest rainfall may limit overall flooding extent. The greatest window for heaviest rain looks to be Friday to early Saturday morning. After Saturday AM attention turns to an approaching front. Wind shear isn't overly strong, but combination of very warm temperatures, high dewpoints, and potential for a plume of steeper lapse rates to advect in could set the stage for scattered t'storms both Saturday and Sunday...including the potential for a few severe t'storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Then...moving forward....we dream of the D as we may party like it's 1995.

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Let’s get some big rains ..some big gusts , and some big swells left over for Saturday in RI beaches 

Hoping this winds up enough 

At least there is something to pay attention to during the dullest weather time of the year. 

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This whole thread a needs matter-energy replicator like in star trek, that can turn it into a baseball bat,...that then bludgeons Kevin whenever he impulsively dooms us with drought fears because a single blade of his lawn's grass turned to straw 

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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro looked like weak sauce 

a 1006 low farting up the coast , let’s tighten up 

Crazy uncle Ukie was preferred 

planning on Newport this weekend , maybe swept out from the rocks at the Sachuest point wildlife preserve 

Euro would take trees down and allow for spinners with that look 

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a spinner threat Saturday morning with the warm SST’s and high dews 

Purely curious, how do warm SST’s promote Tors?  They don’t hamper convection like cooler SSTs?  Anyone can answer, not directed specifically at Kev.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Purely curious, how do warm SST’s promote Tors?  They don’t hamper convection like cooler SSTs?  Anyone can answer, not directed specifically at Kev.

In SNE, they don’t cool the boundary layer with stable marine air. It’s why you see so many on LI and S CT deeper into the summer months. Sometimes called “ Sunrise surprise”

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In SNE, they don’t cool the boundary layer with stable marine air. It’s why you see so many on LI and S CT deeper into the summer months. Sometimes called “ Sunrise surprise”

Gotcha, ok that’s what I was thinking but was wondering if there was more of a relationship between actual tornadoes and SSTs... but its more the relationship between convection and the marine layer.  Can’t have tors if you don’t get convection and strong updrafts.

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The marine  flow can stabilize, but with the likelihood of a surge of high dew points along with good convergence and low level shear,  it’s not hard to do with just a little CAPE in the lower 3KM.  I think ideally you want waters a bit warmer like very late month and in August, but you could do it. 

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47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Do you think the warmer than normal SSTs we have currently can offset that?

I mean it helps, but you’d probably want it a few degrees warmer. But the potential is there, if we can have a decent low circulation into SNE. 

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