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TS Fay - Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection


weatherwiz
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Oops, posted about this in the other thread. American vs Europe models (including Ukie) are night and day. There is a naked swirl well to the WSW of the convection, but I wonder if a new one develops? The tropical models also look into NJ...but this isn't exactly a deep tropical system either.

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oops, posted about this in the other thread. American vs Europe models (including Ukie) are night and day. There is a naked swirl well to the WSW of the convection, but I wonder if a new one develops? The tropical models also look into NJ...but this isn't exactly a deep tropical system either.

It’s a hot mess.

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Hopefully with tonight's 0z runs we will have a much better idea of track and placement of heaviest rain. Until this system becomes a bit more organized it's quite difficult to really assess...that's if it even does become a bit more organized. Should this remain rather disorganized we'll still see some very heavy rainfall but there may not be a defined axis of where that occurs. 

Not sure if we pop anything Saturday afternoon but the potential is there for a few supercells. 

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Kinda looking harder and I'm not so sure there really is a "tornado threat" with this...first off the probability was rather low but I think it's even low enough to where it's not even worth a mention. But I'm not seeing much in the way to support directional wind shear with this...or certainly not enough to cause rotation. I know with tropical systems the land/ocean interaction can aid in this potential but given how cold the SST's are I think we'll see a pretty stable layer develop off-shore. The greatest potential for convection would be pretty far inland but I think in this case any instability is only going to enhance precipitation rates...with such poor lapse rates and deep/moist column it might be tough to generate lightning...not that this is needed for TOR potential as with these setups in about the lowest few km but the lowest few km don't really look impressive. 

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