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July Discobs 2020


George BM
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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

12z NAM was definitely warmer than yesterday's runs (87/88), so it is at least giving it a chance.  The 12z HRRR looks like about 88 and the 12z GFS is 88 for IAD (the land surface scheme for the metro areas is exaggerating things).  Euro as of the 00z run was still 91.

You are right though, an 89 would be the way we roll around here.

yeah somehow missed that one. just saw NAM MOS is 91 which seems about right. not sure why it would be all that much different than today. have had a fair amount of clouds today. NAM MOS also has 85 for Friday... we're having to earn this one. 

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14 minutes ago, Ian said:

yeah somehow missed that one. just saw NAM MOS is 91 which seems about right. not sure why it would be all that much different than today. have had a fair amount of clouds today. NAM MOS also has 85 for Friday... we're having to earn this one. 

if we only drop to 75/76 tonight, maybe we get a boost.

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20 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

if we only drop to 75/76 tonight, maybe we get a boost.

nice snippet from LWX AFD... mentions the lows

 

.CLIMATE...
A rather notable streak of heat has been ongoing in the immediate
Washington DC area for nearly three weeks.

As of this afternoon, 20 consecutive days had reached at least 90 F
at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA). While it is
certainly not unusual to hit 90 F in July in the DC area, multiple
weeks without a break are relatively rare, as evidenced by the all-
time record which is 21 days (it happened twice in the 1980s -- once
ending on August 14th 1980, and again ending on August 18th 1988).
The ongoing streak is notable not only for its longevity, but its
earlier occurrence in the summer season.

If the temperature reaches 90 F on Thursday, the record will be
tied. But it`s going to come down to the wire.

While the background air mass will be warming, it will also become
increasingly humid. The more humid it is, the longer it takes for
the air to heat up (humid air is denser and requires more
energy to raise its temperature). In weather speak, 850 mb
temperatures will be about 1 C warmer than today, and 1000-500
mb thicknesses will be increasing several dm. But with the
increasing humidity will come a deck of clouds. These clouds
should lift and scatter by late morning and may actually help to
trap heat tonight leading to a warmer start. But if the clouds
linger too long, the air might not have enough time to heat up
to 90 F, especially at the airport with an onshore wind right
off the Potomac River (the water temperature at nearby
Washington Channel is 85 F).

Which of these competing factors will win out? It`s not clear just
yet, and probably won`t be until at least later tomorrow morning.
Guidance available so far today suggests highs will range anywhere
from 85 to 93 F at KDCA, with a best-guess consensus of 89 F. But if
it does hit 90 F tomorrow, it`s seeming increasingly likely it will
continue to hit 90 F for at least several more days after that as
the warming trend continues.
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1 hour ago, Ian said:

nice snippet from LWX AFD... mentions the lows

 


.CLIMATE...
A rather notable streak of heat has been ongoing in the immediate
Washington DC area for nearly three weeks.

As of this afternoon, 20 consecutive days had reached at least 90 F
at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA). While it is
certainly not unusual to hit 90 F in July in the DC area, multiple
weeks without a break are relatively rare, as evidenced by the all-
time record which is 21 days (it happened twice in the 1980s -- once
ending on August 14th 1980, and again ending on August 18th 1988).
The ongoing streak is notable not only for its longevity, but its
earlier occurrence in the summer season.

If the temperature reaches 90 F on Thursday, the record will be
tied. But it`s going to come down to the wire.

While the background air mass will be warming, it will also become
increasingly humid. The more humid it is, the longer it takes for
the air to heat up (humid air is denser and requires more
energy to raise its temperature). In weather speak, 850 mb
temperatures will be about 1 C warmer than today, and 1000-500
mb thicknesses will be increasing several dm. But with the
increasing humidity will come a deck of clouds. These clouds
should lift and scatter by late morning and may actually help to
trap heat tonight leading to a warmer start. But if the clouds
linger too long, the air might not have enough time to heat up
to 90 F, especially at the airport with an onshore wind right
off the Potomac River (the water temperature at nearby
Washington Channel is 85 F).

Which of these competing factors will win out? It`s not clear just
yet, and probably won`t be until at least later tomorrow morning.
Guidance available so far today suggests highs will range anywhere
from 85 to 93 F at KDCA, with a best-guess consensus of 89 F. But if
it does hit 90 F tomorrow, it`s seeming increasingly likely it will
continue to hit 90 F for at least several more days after that as
the warming trend continues.

Yeah, one of the troubles tomorrow is going to be the SE fetch off the Potomac.  No friendly Crystal City bump.

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Euro has been increasing temps this weekend/early week lately. 102 for Sun and 101 for Mon at DCA per the 12z run. Closer in than many of the bigger numbers on display of late, though not total support. 

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39 minutes ago, Ian said:

Euro has been increasing temps this weekend/early week lately. 102 for Sun and 101 for Mon at DCA per the 12z run. Closer in than many of the bigger numbers on display of late, though not total support. 

Euro decently wet for next 10 days too.

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Gotta get a 100 spot out of this heat wave, right? It just wouldn’t feel right. Any days of big heat (95+)?

Sunday through Tuesday look like widespread mid 90s, esp for urban areas. One would think DC has a decent shot at 100 at least one of those days.

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11 minutes ago, H2O said:

I’ll make my prediction now. Skies clear by 2 and temps soar. The 90° will happen around 4:30

Does look like it's finally making headway clearing from west to east. July the 16th be with you. 

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3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Saw the Minotaur IV launch in Chincoteague yesterday. 10/10 would watch again.

 Mosquito Joe needs to drop his napalm on that entire region. I've never seen so many mosquitoes in my life. Leaving there right now.

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