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July Discobs 2020


George BM
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Latest WPC model discussion. This thing is practically on the doorstep and confidence is below average lol.

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Preference: 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CMC blend Confidence: Slightly below average

The 12Z NAM appears to be too fast with the surface low almost from initialization, though it tends to slow a bit toward 11/00z. However, both the 12Z NAM/GFS are faster with the surface low than much of the 00Z non-NCEP guidance, and remains so through 11/12z. The 12Z NAM/GFS are generally weaker with the surface system, and tend to draw it back westward toward the broad long wave trough crossing the Mid Atlantic and New England through the period.

Though the trend in the 12Z non-NCEP guidance has been to bring the track of the surface low back west, it is still slower and further east than the 12Z NCEP guidance. The change in the 12Z ECMWF surface low track seems to be tied to how the mid level systems are interacting, as the 12Z ECMWF has closed off a mid level system over the eastern OH Valley. While the change in the 12Z ECMWF is concerning, it seems to have embraced the general westward shift all of the 12Z guidance.

In the end, the preference has not changed, despite the rather large change in the 12Z ECMWF. However, since it is not clear how the mid level interactions will ultimately impact the surface low track, forecast confidence is dropped to slightly below average.

 

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57 minutes ago, yoda said:

Who are you again? ;)

Hope you are doing well and enjoying this 90 degree heat wave

I am not so sure these days. You too!

If we make it through tomorrow... it has trended right. (I finally cleaned out my attachments so I can post pics)

ndfd_sfctmax2.cwg_us_dmv.thumb.png.306777a27dde2dbab7a7145bb134a234.png

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Pattern still remains on track for prolonged sustained heat beginning late this weekend and peaking late next week into the week after. Forecast has low to mid 90s Saturday and Sunday. Monday and Tuesday look to be right at 90 or a little above then the furnace gets cranking mid-week

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

Pattern still remains on track for prolonged sustained heat beginning late this weekend and peaking late next week into the week after. Forecast has low to mid 90s Saturday and Sunday. Monday and Tuesday look to be right at 90 or a little above then the furnace gets cranking mid-week

Oh yeah euro has 102 for dc next Thursday and then 100, 101 on the weekend.  

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I think we’re gonna do it today, it’s already 85-86 at the wunderground stations around DCA. 

yeah looks like at least 85 there per 5 min obs. not bad for noon... nws ticked back up to 90 from 89. 

 

  

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Maybe we can go 30/31 in July.

does seem we will make a run at the July record per modeling. 

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We need that shift to NW or WNW winds and DCA will cook.

yeah seems to maybe be ongoing. nice spike at one to 87. imagine we'll get it now but no sense in being cocky lol. 

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Euro also had 99 yesterday.  It was the only model even close, but we do well with post-frontal downslope.

ahh yeah I see now. last night's was more in line with the other models in the low 90s or so. it is a situation we tend to bake. 

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9 minutes ago, Ian said:

ahh yeah I see now. last night's was more in line with the other models in the low 90s or so. it is a situation we tend to bake. 

After today, our next hurdle looks like Monday with the trough passage.  If we get any coverage of clouds/precip, that could end it.  If we pass that one the record looks very attainable.  Also, the GFS is not as impressive with the trough.

500h_anom.us_ma.thumb.png.9cbafab55f6d1f99e473da9e234a9d68.png

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