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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

5th longest streak for LGA not dropping below 70°.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 34 2006-08-10
2 32 1980-08-15
3 29 2018-08-19
4 28 2010-07-30
5 26 2020-07-28

Heat milestones all over. DC has 32 straight 70+ lows for 3rd longest, approaching the record of 35 in 2016. They also broke the record of 90+ days in a month at 27, breaking the record of 25. I dont see LGA getting below 70 anytime soon, you think we make it to the top spot? I believe LGA is just short of most 90s in a month too?

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13 minutes ago, dWave said:

Heat milestones all over. DC has 32 straight 70+ lows for 3rd longest, approaching the record of 35 in 2016. They also broke the record of 90+ days in a month at 27, breaking the record of 25. I dont see LGA getting below 70 anytime soon, you think we make it to the top spot? I believe LGA is just short of most 90s in a month too?

Right at the top of the list for July 90° and 95° days.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 18 0
  2020 18 2
2 1999 17 0
3 2016 15 0
- 2013 15 0
4 2019 14 0
- 2012 14 0
- 2011 14 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 
Missing Count
1 2020 11 2
- 1999 11 0
2 2012 7 0
- 1955 7 0
3 2013 6 0
- 2010 6 0
- 2002 6 0
- 1991 6 0
- 1966 6 0
4 2019 5 0

 

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The temperature reached the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today. Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Readings will likely remain several degrees above normal into the weekend.

Some of the guidance suggests the potential for above normal rainfall during the first week of August for a portion of the region. Tropical moisture could be involved.

Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.8°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.6°-82.8° there. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was -1.23.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.493.

On July 28, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.379 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.538.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 59 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0°.

Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July.

 

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2020: 90 (+) degree days thru 7/29

PHL: 25 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 20 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 21  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 16  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 20 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4;  Jul: 16 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 23 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 18  ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 20 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 15 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 17 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 15  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 15 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 13; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 11 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 11 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 6 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 6 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 19 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 15 ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)
BLM:   21

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 8
ACY: 3
TEB: 5
LGA: 5
TTN: 3
EWR: 2
PHL: 4
BLM: 4
JFK:2
NYC: 1

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30 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

2020: 90 (+) degree days thru 7/29

PHL: 25 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 20 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 21  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 16  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 20 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4;  Jul: 16 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 23 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 18  ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 20 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 15 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 17 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 15  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 15 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 13; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 11 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 11 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 6 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 6 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 19 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 15 ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)
BLM:   21

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 8
ACY: 3
TEB: 5
LGA: 5
TTN: 3
EWR: 2
PHL: 4
BLM: 4
JFK:2
NYC: 1

21... 90° days here so far.

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The last 2 days of July are averaging 80.5degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +3.5[80.1] and should end there.

As far as the tropical system is concerned, the GFS is the furthest east of us and the CMC the western most.    EURO gives 20% chance of hurricane winds near Cape May, but not here.      The GFS-Para which started it all, has dropped out of the race.

77*(70%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.       82*(66%RH) by 10am.          82*(72%RH) by Noon *was 83* earlier.     84*(73%RH) at 1pm.

 

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Portions of Westchester CO  closing in on their longest streak for not dropping below 62°. Like all our other stations, notice how many of the highest numbers occurred since 2010.
 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 62 
for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 44 1988-08-18
2 40 2020-07-29
3 37 2019-08-07
4 33 2018-08-22
- 33 1980-08-15
- 33 1967-08-10
5 32 2013-07-24
6 30 2016-08-02
7 29 1983-08-11
8 28 2011-08-11
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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last 2 days of July are averaging 80.5degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +3.5[80.1] and should end there.

As far as the tropical system is concerned, the GFS is the furthest east of us and the CMC the western most.    EURO gives 20% chance of hurricane winds near Cape May, but not here.      The GFS-Para which started it all, has dropped out of the race.

77*(70%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.

 

The trip over Hispanola will be interesting.   I wonder what will be left of the storm on the other side....

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81/67.  High clouds stretching all the way back into and through PA ahead of next round of storms.  It may a  challenge to get to 90 but we'll see if clouds can burn off this PM.  The stretch steady heat and near daily 90s will end on Friday (7/31)as we transition into a wetter and overall warmer than normal pattern.  Friday follows July trend from Fay to last week with clouds and storms and some areas not making it into the 80s other than nighttime  maximums.  Saturday pending on how soon we can clear out offers an offshot at 90s in the warmer spots.  BY Sunday 850s are back >16c - 18c but clouds and influence from the tropics will likely lead to cloudy conditions, should we get any prolong clearing either Sun (8/2) or Mon (8/3) 90s are attainable.  Isaiasas looks to get Florida before riding the trough and the exiting WAR allowing whats left or  the remnants to ride up the east coast 8/3 - 8/5.  

Beyond there continued trough into the Midwest/GL WAR expanding west and Rockies ridge slowly heading into the Plains by the second week of August.  Should see the next chance of sustained heat towards that period as trough lifts out and heat ejects east from the Plains.

Vis - sat - 7-30- 2020.JPG

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Right at the top of the list for July 90° and 95° days.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 18 0
  2020 18 2
2 1999 17 0
3 2016 15 0
- 2013 15 0
4 2019 14 0
- 2012 14 0
- 2011 14 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 
Missing Count
1 2020 11 2
- 1999 11 0
2 2012 7 0
- 1955 7 0
3 2013 6 0
- 2010 6 0
- 2002 6 0
- 1991 6 0
- 1966 6 0
4 2019 5 0

 

LGA hit 90, now passing 2010 for most 90+ days for July. I would assume for any month as well.

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