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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, record high dew points and minimum temperatures have become our new summer normal. ISP on track for the first 70° average dew point July.

E1C8E038-266F-4BFF-8ECE-7281D8EE0ECF.png.355c672a0088d913946706b9c0b317c5.png

 

 

yeah the rising dew points and minimum temperatures go hand and hand...

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, record high dew points and minimum temperatures have become our new summer normal. ISP on track for the first 70° average dew point July. So our climate is taking on more subtropical characteristics.

E1C8E038-266F-4BFF-8ECE-7281D8EE0ECF.png.355c672a0088d913946706b9c0b317c5.png

 

 

After reading and trying to digest the report that Don S so kindly posted in the climate change thread, not only will my 2050 postage stamp be wetlands, Brooklynn Heights will probably have the first NYC coconut palms struggling to survive a sometimes cool but snowless winter. At 103, with my luck, I’ll be here to see it. As always...

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, record high dew points and minimum temperatures have become our new summer normal. ISP on track for the first 70° average dew point July.

E1C8E038-266F-4BFF-8ECE-7281D8EE0ECF.png.355c672a0088d913946706b9c0b317c5.png

 

 

So  in 50 years the average dew point temperature at Islip has gone from 64 to about 66-67. It does look like we have been in a high trend for the past 9 years. Before 2010 it doesn't look like a big change.

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39 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

despite the trough next week the euro keeps us in the low 90's most days

Guidance had certainly moderated in that Jul 30 - Aug 1/2nd period from showing below normal temps to near normal now.  Looks to get quite humid early Aug. Only below normal days will likely be attributed to conditions like yesterday cloudy/showers most of the day for the next 10 days / 2 weeks.

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20 minutes ago, Cfa said:

New York Times is about half a century late on the “is now subtropical” part, but the environment is clearly responding to the increased warmth.

 

The  crepe myrtles  have also  been doing very well here in SW Suffolk.
 

Mr. Roddick, of Brooklyn’s Botanic Garden, actually had his first big arboreal surprise in the mid-1990s. Similar to his fig tree epiphany a few years later, he noticed that a gardener had failed to cut back the crepe myrtle trees, which normally froze in the winter. “The trees were budding,” Mr. Roddick said. “We were shocked.”

Over the last 22 years, only once has an ice storm damaged the trees, he said.

Crepe myrtles are native to Southeast Asia, India and parts of the Central and South Pacific. They are also very common in the American South, where in the summer, they splash the landscape with red, pink, lavender and white blossoms. Until recently, crepe myrtles in New York City would grow no larger than a shrub; gardeners would cut them down to the root for winter.

Now the Brooklyn Botanic Garden grows several varieties year-round, and some have grown into 20-foot trees. They can be found throughout the city and the northern suburbs.

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27 minutes ago, Cfa said:

New York Times is about half a century late on the “is now subtropical” part, but the environment is clearly responding to the increased warmth.

 

There’s little doubt that climate change is having an impact. At the New York Botanical Garden, a growing assortment of plants remain in bloom deeper into autumn and blossoms increasingly break out in February. Frogs are also making earlier appearances.

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14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

3PM Roundup


LGA: 91
New Brnswck: 89
BLM: 88
EWR: 88
PHL: 88
TEB: 87
TTN: 86
NYC: 86
ISP: 85
ACY: 85
JFK: 84

LGA getting closer to the July all-time record number of 90° days.

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 18 0
2 1999 17 0
3 2016 15 0
- 2013 15 0
4 2019 14 0
- 2012 14 0
- 2011 14 0
- 2002 14 0
- 1955 14 0
- 1952 14 0
- 1949 14 0
  2020 14 6
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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

LGA getting closer to the July all-time record number of 90° days.

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 18 0
2 1999 17 0
3 2016 15 0
- 2013 15 0
4 2019 14 0
- 2012 14 0
- 2011 14 0
- 2002 14 0
- 1955 14 0
- 1952 14 0
- 1949 14 0
  2020 14 6

all ten days on the 12z euro are 90+

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Wantage NJ max so far 87 as piddly showers dry out off the Poconos before reaching us. Still has til 7P to gather all the CAPE and send one decent shower into Orange County NY or Sussex County NJ.

Maine: Looks somewhat interesting to me tomorrow morning sometime for a 'potential' strong thunderstorm northwest flow event for a small part of northern Maine. Normally I don't go out of forum but the nw flow stuff has me always interested and this was something the EC originally seen modeled for our area this weekend (posts from several days ago)

VT/NH (small portions): early Monday-ditto on nw flow strong thunderstorm.  

 

Tuesday-Wednesday here - NYC forum: For sure HOT with HI 100-104 'possible' depending as others have noted...on afternoon shower = cloud debris. SVR/FF still possible though a little concerned the trough is so close that not much may happen in the afternoon... then it lights up later Tuesday night-Wednesday LI-I-80 in NJ southward, with quite a bit of rain (spotty 2-3" in a 3 hr period).  We'll see.  

Heat wave may break Wednesday, but could resume with another,  beginning Thursday?

By the way: Anyone remember, days ago, how emphatically cooler the GFS forecast was for the weekend we're involved with now?  Not happening. I think the model compromise would give an edge to the EC for not plowing heavily into the cool days. 334P/25

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The  crepe myrtles  have also  been doing very well here in SW Suffolk.
 

Mr. Roddick, of Brooklyn’s Botanic Garden, actually had his first big arboreal surprise in the mid-1990s. Similar to his fig tree epiphany a few years later, he noticed that a gardener had failed to cut back the crepe myrtle trees, which normally froze in the winter. “The trees were budding,” Mr. Roddick said. “We were shocked.”

Over the last 22 years, only once has an ice storm damaged the trees, he said.

Crepe myrtles are native to Southeast Asia, India and parts of the Central and South Pacific. They are also very common in the American South, where in the summer, they splash the landscape with red, pink, lavender and white blossoms. Until recently, crepe myrtles in New York City would grow no larger than a shrub; gardeners would cut them down to the root for winter.

Now the Brooklyn Botanic Garden grows several varieties year-round, and some have grown into 20-foot trees. They can be found throughout the city and the northern suburbs.

They’ve really become quite ubiquitous around here, even the notoriously cold Feb 2015 barely affected them. They’re very attractive trees, though their spring leaf out is among the latest.

Crepe Myrtles in Hicksville: 96DF0252-91A1-4D29-81BA-439CE953DA31.thumb.jpeg.5747aa81691b4e199a036a18c0caac0a.jpeg

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43 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

all ten days on the 12z euro are 90+

The local SSTs have been near 80°on a regular basis.

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1950                   190/ 14/ 17 1017.4          2/ 5
20 S Fire Island 1940               80  200/ 10/ 12 1018.2
Great South Bay  1930            79     220/  8/ 14   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1940            76 76  240/ 10/ 12 1018.4
15 E Barnegat Li 1926               81                N/A           2/15

B261C29F-96E3-4954-B1BC-91FC83D4CF12.png.6f3a215d593b1abb8e257731cf45752d.png

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There’s little doubt that climate change is having an impact. At the New York Botanical Garden, a growing assortment of plants remain in bloom deeper into autumn and blossoms increasingly break out in February. Frogs are also making earlier appearances.

It’s crazy to think that we’re really watching these climate shifts in realtime. I’m in my 20’s and this is all very noticeable.

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