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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Looking WSW from Piscataway some cloud is throwing regular lightning every 5ish seconds.  Must be tiny because I hardly see anything on radar but it's there.

Maybe every 2ish seconds.  Someone's boat is getting serious rain.

Edit: this thing is lighting up.  Wow!

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The next 8 days are averaging 86.5degs., or 8.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.8[78.1].        Should be about  +3.9[80.8] by the 26th.

The last 14 days of July are averaging a mere 84/96 = 90, or +12!

77*(83%RH) here at 6am., hazy blue.      79*(76%RH) by 9am.       80* by 10:30am.        81*(75%RH) at 11am.        Actually down to 80* again here in CI at Noon!

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Good Saturday morning American Weather participants,

No significant change in thinking through Sunday the 26th.  Heat wave for sure non-marine influenced, with max temps near 97F Sunday-Monday and possibly next Sunday the 26th, for portions of the lower Hudson Valley, northeast NJ near EWR etc, interior Fairfield and New Haven counties of sw CT and possibly NYC? HI for sure near 105 Monday.  Little cooler elsewhere but sweaty. 

Eastward moving FF/SVR scattered about Monday afternoon 2P-10P (marginal risk out already by SPC in its D3), Wednesday afternoon-night, and possibly again Saturday night or Sunday the 25th-26th.  Thursday the 23rd is not locked out of a FF/SVR threat but looks less potent and so am not highlighting. Sat night-Sunday (25-26) could be an unlikely 2 episodes, but so far in the future.  What I'm sure of is that there will be strong WAA with a 500 MB -4C cap nearby in a northwest flow severe environment with a pretty good jet barreling southeastward into the northeast USA.  My guess is late Saturday night is the primary threat on that one. PWATS Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Sat night-Sunday all near or above 2" with KI 35-40.  

(Mondays current SPC D3 may start this as a topic sometime Sunday-just want to keep everything going on this thread regarding the upcoming 8 days modeled interesting summer weather)

Last night: Attached the radar storm total from last evening-overnight, modeled best by HRRR radar, and definitely a surprise for me, especially extent-long lived event, even into this morning in the Atlantic southeast of LI. Looked impressive from the backside here in nw NJ.  Not that much lightning but biggest storm tops look like they made to between 35-40K. It was good that PWAT had come down from the morning or the several 1.25" reports  would have been much larger. 755A/18

Screen Shot 2020-07-18 at 6.41.41 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-18 at 6.44.50 AM.png

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Have posted this as new topic on wx and forecasting.  I will try to add another useful table shortly... but thought you would be interested in the Law striking down use of the HI for sending employees home. 

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/judge-finds-no-scientific-basis-nws-heat-index-chart-used-osha-heat-stress-cases?fbclid=IwAR3GqCKx7x0of72DYREF9X-mU7e34H2ECMQfyr71R0tmeJE_XTG9NtwkkdY

 

May be replaced by WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature- 82 might be a threshold). I'm not studied on this and I'll try to get more info and add to this topic and if there is any predictive data to view.

 

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81/71 - Queue The Jaimes - Its Summertime, summer time.  Hazy Hot and Humid the next week and beyond.  First peak of heat Sun and Mon and pending on any debris clouds, storms both days could offer the first 100's outside LGA since 2013. Otherwise plenty of 95(+) with DT in the 70s and near 80 at times (Wed-Thu) producing heat index values into the triple digits.  Storms again look to be fairly consistent as ridge axis is SW of the area and we skirt the rim.   Wed 850's and Dewpoints look to surge on more S/SSW flow so we will need to see if clouds interrupt 90s that day.  Monday reminds me of Jul 6th early strong heat then widespread storms but perhaps more north than that day.  ECM continue tp pump heights into the east with bursts of strong heat hinting the next one would be 7/25-26 before more storms.  These bursts of stronger heat somewhat coincide with the Western Atlantic ridge retrograding west hooking with the Plains Ridge  but its core remains south towards the SE / southern Mid Atlantic so heat comes but storms a plenty.  Need to watch South / onshore flow at the coasts as well highlighted by Bluewave..  For those who like the heat enjoy as it looks to persist (overall) but so do storm chances.  Perhaps a cooler day or two around 7/27-28 before more heat and have to watch if ridge shifts towards the Rockies for a period in early Aug but still warm to hot overall.

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84/75 (HI 92) here, my type of weather. I’m thinking forecasts for Long Island (away from the south shore) might be a bit conservative, just a hunch, but we’ll see.

0.37” yesterday, 0.04” from the morning drizzle and the rest from last night’s downpour. High was 80, low was 66.

Heard the first Cicada yesterday, and they’re more abundant today, right on schedule (mid summer).

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22 hours ago, bluewave said:

The warm minimums have been leading the departures In the Hudson Valley.  POU is +4.4 so far. Max departure +3.1 and min +5.8.

Climatological Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY - July 2020
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Avg Temperature 
Avg Temperature Departure 
HDD 
CDD 
Precipitation 
Sum 1397 1058 - - 0 191 2.40
Average 87.3 66.1 76.7 4.4 - - -
Normal 84.2 60.3 72.3 - 0 120 2.26
Above Normals represent the month through 2020-07-16.
2020-07-01 85 63 74.0 2.7 0 9 0.02
2020-07-02 94 60 77.0 5.5 0 12 0.07
2020-07-03 86 67 76.5 4.9 0 12 0.30
2020-07-04 91 67 79.0 7.2 0 14 0.00
2020-07-05 93 64 78.5 6.6 0 14 0.00
2020-07-06 95 65 80.0 8.0 0 15 0.00
2020-07-07 82 65 73.5 1.3 0 9 0.00
2020-07-08 83 69 76.0 3.7 0 11 1.34
2020-07-09 92 67 79.5 7.1 0 15 0.00
2020-07-10 82 69 75.5 3.0 0 11 0.39
2020-07-11 89 73 81.0 8.4 0 16 0.28
2020-07-12 88 70 79.0 6.3 0 14 T
2020-07-13 87 67 77.0 4.3 0 12 0.00
2020-07-14 88 63 75.5 2.7 0 11 0.00
2020-07-15 84 62 73.0 0.1 0 8 0.00
2020-07-16 78 67 72.5 -0.4 0 8 0.00
2020-07-17 M M M M M M M
2020-07-18 M M M M M M M
2020-07-19 M M M M M M M
2020-07-20 M M M M M M M
2020-07-21 M M M M M M M
2020-07-22 M M M M M M M
2020-07-23 M M M M M M M
2020-07-24 M M M M M M M
2020-07-25 M M M M M M M
2020-07-26 M M M M M M M
2020-07-27 M M M M M M M
2020-07-28 M M M M M M M
2020-07-29 M M M M M M M
2020-07-30 M M M M M M M
2020-07-31 M M M M M M M

The high minimum theme continues :( I think there's (almost) a silver lining to it though, if it was 4-6* above avg for highs we'd be looking at some really hot daytime temps (as opposed to just unpleasant). 

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I started writing about the higher minimums almost 20 years ago when I was on the weather channel board...long gone are the years like 1962 when NYC had less than 10 days with a minimum 70 or higher...it does that in ten days every year it seams...the average amount of 70 degree minimums in NYC has gone up by at least 10 since 2000...

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Noting no convection for NY forum Monday in the 12z/18 NAM.  Might be because surfaceT forecast in the NAM3k is about 5 degrees too low for the afternoon.  I think the convective temp is modeled around 95.  So we're going to need to get to that value to get convection started.   Could see this as a bit later start Monday... maybe closer to 3 or 4P if it takes longer to reach 95?? Still uncertainty. 

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22 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

The high minimum theme continues :( I think there's (almost) a silver lining to it though, if it was 4-6* above avg for highs we'd be looking at some really hot daytime temps (as opposed to just unpleasant). 

Yeah, the really impressive record high temperatures in recent years have come during the cold season. The new all-time monthly highs of 96°in October 2019 and 80° for February 2018. We have been lucky that the most extreme high temperatures haven’t been in July or August. But we saw that 108° new all time high at Newark in July 2011.

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16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Noon roundup

PHL: 89
BLM: 89
NYC: 87
TTN: 87
JFK: 87
TTN: 87
LGA: 87
EWR: 87
ISP: 85
TEB: 85
New Brnswck :--

I don't get it.     Here in CI I am stuck at 80* (actually down 1* since 11am) with a minor sea breeze the only possible reason.       I have two thermometers and both are the same,-----I was warmer at Midnight, 12 hours ago!         Either everyone else will be coming down in T soon, or I will suddenly shoot upwards.       I will be reading my thermometers remotely from beach.

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30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage 84/65 few this sc generated since Noon. Basically brilliant sunshine.  Maybe we'll have a clear shot at the Comet this eve before a little AC forms later at night. 

my family is at Space farms today in Wantage...nice day to go there but its to warm for me...

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