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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Overnight, Fay will continue to move northward in New York State and then into New England. Sunshine will return tomorrow with noticeably warmer temperatures.

With a high temperature of 91°, Washington, DC registered its 15th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 18-August 2, 2011 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 16 consecutive days.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was +21.85.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.909.

On July 9, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.522 (RMM). The July 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.598.

That was the 20th consecutive day the MJO was in Phase 1. That broke the old record of 19 consecutive days in Phase 1, which was set during the July 6-24, 2004 period. In addition, the MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 40 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°.

 

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4 hours ago, PB-99 said:

The 3k NAM has 2 possible lines tomorrow 

Going to be a disgusting day with high dew points (mid to upper 70's!) and high PWAT's. Instability values will be impressive and we may benefit from good timing (afternoon start time). Hopefully we don't get any morning activity to screw us over.

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Looking beyond today:  Timing of convection uncertain but Monday the 13th could see a few hailers...  timing of convection is my concern. Tuesday: leftover in se NYS?? Thursday the 16th looks interesting to me but convective debris  may nix a fairly potent day---which has a nicely modeled 500mb wind field, CAPE etc. This is not the end of potency per overall USA-Canadian jet and attempted thrusts of heat into the ne USA beyond the 16th. Enjoy every minute of this active period. 605A/11

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11 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Good. Keep that BS up there.

Following Fay moving through the area, the models backed off the heat they had forecast day 6-10. The ridge amplification looks less impressive now. Just enough high pressure holds on east of New England for more S to SSE onshore flow. But the dew points could  turn out to be a bigger story with numerous days in the 70s coming up. So clouds and convection may be a player with such high dew points and weak front or low pressure nearby.

New run

B10E8631-59E5-49F2-8B59-5C7DECB202F3.thumb.png.80bedb4dbd0157b770d2c4a4dee6649f.png
FF08DB9B-4852-41FD-95DA-0AC14A544A92.thumb.png.d8f941a837f46b78c8ec9f01fbb753ea.png

Old run

 

A677B7BA-E613-4366-87F6-3CE77D3C54B4.png

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The next 8 days are averaging 81.5degs., or +3.5degs.

74* here at 6am(93%RH), cirrus cover.      75* at 7am.        80*(91%RH)by Noon.         82* at 7:30pm was the high.

The next 17 days on the GFS:     78/93 = 85.5>>>> +7.5.      If this model only knew what was happening in the stratosphere,  where it was warming and where it was cooling----it might produce a coherent LR forecast somewhere along the line.       It has been showing 100's since June 04, I believe,  in its LR outputs.

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JFK close to adding a 2nd 75 degree dew point day for the year so far. Could put them on track for 5 consecutive years with double digit annual numbers. Record number of days since the super El Niño in 2016.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

23DB4EB6-3A09-4728-998B-609FEA9581DC.thumb.jpeg.6788114311e10da0b91f9daf6be800a9.jpeg

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the number of 75 degree dew point days coincide with the number of 80 degree minimum nights...last year NYC and Newark had a daily minimum over 80 on the 2oth and 21st....this year the only thing that will stop NYC from having a 80 degree minimum day is thunderstorms...

NYC and Newark...

min/max.......dates...

81/90......7/03/1876
81/90......7/19/1878
80/95......7/07/1883
80/94......7/25/1885
81/91......8/11/1891
82/98......8/09/1896
80/94......8/10/1896
81/96......8/11/1896
81/95......7/18/1900

80/95......6/30/1901
82/100....7/02/1901
80/96......7/18/1905
80/95......7/19/1905
80/92......8/11/1905
80/87......7/23/1906
80/94......8/06/1906
80/90......7/05/1908
81/95......7/06/1908
84/93......7/07/1908
81/93......8/05/1908
80/87......8/06/1908
82/94......8/13/1908
84/93......8/14/1908
82/100....7/31/1917
82/98......8/01/1917
80/96......8/06/1918
82/104....8/07/1918
81/94......7/20/1930
80/98......8/02/1933
81/100....6/26/1952
80/95......7/16/1952
80/101....7/22/1957
81/95......7/23/1978
82/102....7/21/1980
80/96......8/08/1980
80/95......8/09/1980
80/95......8/15/1985
80/94......8/12/1988
80/99......8/14/1988
81/97......8/15/1988
80/100....7/08/1993
80/102....7/10/1993
84/102....7/15/1995
82/102....7/05/1999
83/101....7/06/1999
82/103....8/09/2001
82/95......7/03/2002
81/96......7/04/2002
80/95......7/30/2002
80/98......8/13/2002
80/99......8/13/2005
83/97......8/02/2006
81/103....7/06/2010
80/100....7/07/2010
80/97......7/24/2010
84/104....7/22/2011
83/100....7/23/2011

82/94......7/20/2015

80/96......7/23/2016

81/96......8/13/2016

81/92......8/29/2018

82/95......7/20/2019

80/95......7/21/2019

.................................................................................

 

Newark N.J. 80 degree minimum days...

min/max...date...

80/97.....7/17/1968

80/90.....7/24/1972

80/97.....8/03/1975

80/98.....7/23/1978

81/101...7/21/1980

80/98.....7/09/1981

80/94.....7/10/1981

80/100...7/18/1982

80/98.....7/19/1982

80/98.....7/16/1983

80/97.....8/15/1985

80/95.....8/12/1988

80/98.....8/14/1988

81/99.....8/15/1988

82/105...7/08/1993

83/104...7/09/1993

84/105...7/10/1993

80/99.....7/11/1993

80/97.....7/12/1993

82/104...7/15/1995

81/103...7/05/1999

82/102...7/06/1999

80/99.....8/01/1999

82/101...8/08/2001

82/98.....7/03/2002

81/100...7/04/2002

81/96.....7/30/2002

80/102...8/13/2005

81/100...8/02/2006

80/101...8/03/2006

80/98.....6/28/2010

81/103...7/06/2010

82/99.....7/24/2010

86/108...7/22/2011

86/102...7/23/2011

82/100...7/19/2013

80/97.....7/20/2015

80/98.....7/23/2016

80/97.....8/14/2016

80/98.....7/20/2019

80/99.....7/21/2019

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Following Fay moving through the area, the models backed off the heat they had forecast day 6-10. The ridge amplification looks less impressive now. Just enough high pressure holds on east of New England for more S to SSE onshore flow. But the dew points could  turn out to be a bigger story with numerous days in the 70s coming up. So clouds and convection may be a player with such high dew points and weak front or low pressure nearby.

New run

B10E8631-59E5-49F2-8B59-5C7DECB202F3.thumb.png.80bedb4dbd0157b770d2c4a4dee6649f.png
FF08DB9B-4852-41FD-95DA-0AC14A544A92.thumb.png.d8f941a837f46b78c8ec9f01fbb753ea.png

Old run

 

A677B7BA-E613-4366-87F6-3CE77D3C54B4.png

I'm telling ya Chris, the pattern this season has been utterly perfect for tropical systems to hit our area the hardest.  This might be the most likely year of our lifetimes for this region to get hit by tropical systems.  The heat to our north is a classic blocking pattern that makes that likely (Buffalo 98, second hottest on record, 96 in VT and ME, tied for hottest on record and 99 in Montreal, second hottest on record.).  If we were in the area of the higher heat anomalies those tropical systems would be hitting the Carolinas and the SE, but this looks like the year of the MidAtlantic and Northeast.  Next year is going to be the year of the big heat for us.

 

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On 7/10/2020 at 9:49 AM, wdrag said:

Not sure of surface wind direction when 100F in NYC CP-LGA... would think between 260-310 degrees?  I know there is talk of 100F in the forum... cant remember myself, the 100F day wind direction but am pretty sure isobars were west-east to northwest-southeast.  EWR I think can more easily reach 100 on a sfc wind backed to 230degrees.  Might be worth a check. I'd like to see 850T at least 20C, closer to 23C at 12z-18z of the proposed 100F day. 

Walt, on a northerly to northwesterly wind, JFK is actually hotter than either NYC or LGA and more closely matches EWR.  In SW Nassau County we are usually hotter than the city on those winds.

 

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Downpour starts to move away but it keeping filling in behind it. Didnt realize storms would be moving south to north today..or SSW to NNE. Antidotely, I remember t storms coming from the south as some of the most prolific rain makers. 

 

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

the number of 75 degree dew point days coincide with the number of 80 degree minimum nights...last year NYC and Newark had a daily minimum over 80 on the 2oth and 21st....this year the only thing that will stop NYC from having a 80 degree minimum day is thunderstorms...

NYC and Newark...

min/max.......dates...

81...........7/01/1872

82...........7/02/1872
81/90......7/03/1876
81/90......7/19/1878
80/95......7/07/1883
80/94......7/25/1885
81/91......8/11/1891
82/98......8/09/1896
80/94......8/10/1896
81/96......8/11/1896
81/95......7/18/1900

80/95......6/30/1901
82/100....7/02/1901
80/96......7/18/1905
80/95......7/19/1905
80/92......8/11/1905
80/87......7/23/1906
80/94......8/06/1906
80/90......7/05/1908
81/95......7/06/1908
84/93......7/07/1908
81/93......8/05/1908
80/87......8/06/1908
82/94......8/13/1908
84/93......8/14/1908
82/100....7/31/1917
82/98......8/01/1917
80/96......8/06/1918
82/104....8/07/1918
81/94......7/20/1930
80/98......8/02/1933
81/100....6/26/1952
80/95......7/16/1952
80/101....7/22/1957
81/95......7/23/1978
82/102....7/21/1980
80/96......8/08/1980
80/95......8/09/1980
80/95......8/15/1985
80/94......8/12/1988
80/99......8/14/1988
81/97......8/15/1988
80/100....7/08/1993
80/102....7/10/1993
84/102....7/15/1995
82/102....7/05/1999
83/101....7/06/1999
82/103....8/09/2001
82/95......7/03/2002
81/96......7/04/2002
80/95......7/30/2002
80/98......8/13/2002
80/99......8/13/2005
83/97......8/02/2006
81/103....7/06/2010
80/100....7/07/2010
80/97......7/24/2010
84/104....7/22/2011
83/100....7/23/2011

82/94......7/20/2015

80/96......7/23/2016

81/96......8/13/2016

81/92......8/29/2018

82/95......7/20/2019

80/95......7/21/2019

.................................................................................

 

Newark N.J. 80 degree minimum days...

min/max...date...

80/97.....7/17/1968

80/90.....7/24/1972

80/97.....8/03/1975

80/98.....7/23/1978

81/101...7/21/1980

80/98.....7/09/1981

80/94.....7/10/1981

80/100...7/18/1982

80/98.....7/19/1982

80/98.....7/16/1983

80/97.....8/15/1985

80/95.....8/12/1988

80/98.....8/14/1988

81/99.....8/15/1988

82/105...7/08/1993

83/104...7/09/1993

84/105...7/10/1993

80/99.....7/11/1993

80/97.....7/12/1993

82/104...7/15/1995

81/103...7/05/1999

82/102...7/06/1999

80/99.....8/01/1999

82/101...8/08/2001

82/98.....7/03/2002

81/100...7/04/2002

81/96.....7/30/2002

80/102...8/13/2005

81/100...8/02/2006

80/101...8/03/2006

80/98.....6/28/2010

81/103...7/06/2010

82/99.....7/24/2010

86/108...7/22/2011

86/102...7/23/2011

82/100...7/19/2013

80/97.....7/20/2015

80/98.....7/23/2016

80/97.....8/14/2016

80/98.....7/20/2019

80/99.....7/21/2019

I am curious which location in NYC===your  data is official for.       I assume Central Park.      Because I once downloaded the daily records to an Excel file and I see there that July 01, 02 are listed as 75,78----for the lows.        Their period of June 28-==July 05 1872 constituted a spectacular (for the time frame) heatwave of 8 days

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