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July 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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40 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Well, hopes for heat this week are down the crapper (not that I hope for heat).

Humidity will be there, but warm average temps will be driven by mild nights, not by daytime heat..  At least there''ll be a break from watering the lawn.

Yeah my forecast is showing no 90s. What happened?

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That is a really interesting synoptic evolution along the EC days 3 thru roughly day 6 ... you kind of have to be an Aspergery nerd to see it but ...that vestigial faux tropical whirl migrating slowly on up ... for lack of better description, "eats" the heat.   

There is a quasi EML/SW release plume flooding throughout the midriff Ohio Valley and up through the eastern Lakes, NYS and the ST Lawrence...but, the cyclonic whirl - as per the Euro's evolution - is absorbing the 850 mb thermal layout... You fan see it when animating through the frames.

It gets weird looking, because day 6 shows that there is still thermally charged 850 mb thermal air left in the wake of the whirl's passing through, but by then there is more of a transient 500 mb deeper layer trough that sets over the NE quadrant... while that heat is still rattling around underneath it.  Never seen a 500 mb trough with so much warm air in the lower troposphere.. That's gotta be unstable for one -

That has to be a fantastic heat signal in this particular run cycle by day's 9 and 10 tho.. wow.  You have a massive heat release there timed under a super-synoptic scaled hemispheric wave length expansion spreading over just about everywhere S of the 45 N between Colorado and NJ/Mass with hydrostatic depths exceeding 594 dm!  Unlimited diurnal potential pretty much ...day time highs are limited only by the fact that we have a main sequence yellow dwarf star and at average orbital distance of 93 million miles... otherwise that'd be hell on Earth if that succeeded...  During a Pandemic no less ... where's the Bible 

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3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Ugh. Anyone else notice they don't seem that bad this year? Usually by this time there are clouds of them.

You're in luck there.

They are swarming in upstate NY.  Eat you alive in the woods and fields.  As bad as we have ever had.

 

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Eyes then turn to the Friday/Saturday time period where, if guidance 
is any indication, significant rainfall is likely. This is thanks to 
a coastal low sliding up from the Carolinas, pulled north ahead of 
the trough digging into the Great Lakes. This has the potential to 
bring showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and very heavy 
downpours. Confidence in rainfall amounts and placement is low, 
depending heavily on the eventual low track. However, heavy rainfall 
looks fairly certain with this system given a very potent tap of 
tropical moisture...PWATs may cross into the 2.5-3 inch range! That 
would be 2-4 standard deviations above normal for mid July and would 
lead us to start thinking about the possibility of some flooding 
issue
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I think there's some chance that folks may be surprised or even struck by how uncomfortable it may become as the week ages...  Scott or someone has been mentioning - 

I was noting yesterday's heat in the upper MA.  NYC and LGA obs were both over 94 F in the Metrowest/Utah source... in fact, 95.4...well enough above the 94 to not be saved by the mantra reliance of celsius rounding game people need to petty invoke to not admit it's hot.. lol. 

Seriously, that was under the radar 'big heat' down in the MA to NY region that got - thankfully for them ...- interrupted by a huge convective a-bomb that exhausted/normalized...  

Point being, we have not been in an air mass yet this year - that I can personally recall - where this kind of over-achieving heat is even possible - over SNE's interior climo favored regions.. NW/NNE has...   I was just looking at the NAM's 12z FOUS grid for KBOS ( which is Logon at geographical point) and the 60 hour is putting up a 575+ dam hypsometric height, with 850s somewhere between 17.5 and 18.5 C..on a SW wind and critical cloud level RH < 50%  ...meaning the antecedence between 2pm and 8pm that late afternoon and early evening had ample sun.  The SFC is is 28 C...but, the typical 4C add -in for the bottom 20 mb of compression and slope suggests it's 93 minimum, and with those hypsometric values so high...the DP has to be well over 70 despite whatever the MOS is indicating for either of these two metrics.

Now, ...the NAM and it's grid could be wrong... but, that is the snap shot objective interpretation of those numbers... and I can assure you, we have not regionally had that kind of HI ... 

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