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Winter 2020-2021


ORH_wxman
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Judas Priest 

 

He bases his thoughts for the entire winter on the PV, which is a flawed methodology. PV is strong.....yes. No one expects much blocking this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean winter cancel. He also gets too carried away when guidance wanes on PV intensity because it's not the only factor.

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23 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Lol just trying to reel in a few snow weenies on the edge.

For the informed S W’s that are well versed on terms, content and concepts you may be successful. For some of us ignorance is still bliss. We should stay happy, at least, until the first sun angle post shows up around December 22nd. As always ....

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On 11/14/2020 at 6:56 PM, PhineasC said:

SSW is always the Hail Mary play of the desperate snow weenie. 

X 100 

Haven’t been in this thread a while . 

looks Fugly , thankfully seasonal forecasting has big holes . Isotherm forecast looks good for Gradient winters  in New England  , seems to me many will have their hopes up higher than they should bc they are in northern SNE, when you want to me north of Winny .

Ill take a lockdown, 20 K in stimulus payments and a three month rental in Jay or Somewhere elevated N of Jackson with people .
 

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This may have been mentioned before but didn't the epic late December to early Feb run in 2010-11 not show up on the long range models until Mid December? I know technology in general has advanced in 9 years but I'd like to wait until we get in December before getting to concerned about this winter sucking.  

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27 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

This may have been mentioned before but didn't the epic late December to early Feb run in 2010-11 not show up on the long range models until Mid December? I know technology in general has advanced in 9 years but I'd like to wait until we get in December before getting to concerned about this winter sucking.  

2010-2011 was weird in that the pattern actually got pretty damned good in early December, but we got skunked for like 2 weeks straight. Huge -NAO and active PJ, but we still found a way to get a massive cutter in there and then everything else got shredded in poorly-timed meat grinders.

We finally got a storm to retrograde underneath the massive block in the Dec 20-21 timeframe that hammered Cape Cod (and parts of Maine?) and gave 2-4" to the rest of us in New England, and then of course the Boxing Day model bust.

Then we relaxed the pattern a bit around New Years before going into the epic January 2011 stretch. The model guidance didn't really "see" an epic stretch per say. It showed a persistently favorable pattern though without any warmups. We had the big -NAO until the 1/12/11 storm and then we actually went into a bit of a +PNA pattern for a time before another weak NAO block formed and then was erased in the 1/27/11 storm. We had loaded dice and they kept coming up 7s for us is essentially what happened.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

2010-2011 was weird in that the pattern actually got pretty damned good in early December, but we got skunked for like 2 weeks straight. Huge -NAO and active PJ, but we still found a way to get a massive cutter in there and then everything else got shredded in poorly-timed meat grinders.

We finally got a storm to retrograde underneath the massive block in the Dec 20-21 timeframe that hammered Cape Cod (and parts of Maine?) and gave 2-4" to the rest of us in New England, and then of course the Boxing Day model bust.

Then we relaxed the pattern a bit around New Years before going into the epic January 2011 stretch. The model guidance didn't really "see" an epic stretch per say. It showed a persistently favorable pattern though without any warmups. We had the big -NAO until the 1/12/11 storm and then we actually went into a bit of a +PNA pattern for a time before another weak NAO block formed and then was erased in the 1/27/11 storm. We had loaded dice and they kept coming up 7s for us is essentially what happened.

I don't know if a January will ever top that one for SVT and WMASS.  Savoy reported 48 inches from the 1/12/11 storm.  I'll have to post the pictures if I can find them.  Crazy the amount of huge storms we had in that 18 month stretch.  "Snowicane" storm of late Jan 2010 dropped 2-3 feet of cement above 1800K feet in most of the hills around here, Boxing day was a couple feet of wind swept snow in Savoy, 1/12/11 48" at Savoy, OCTObomb was 30" at low elevation berkshire east. We haven't really had a biggie since. 

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56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How would you know its a rat when you are still 5,000 miles away?

When you’re saying we have a 4 week window of real winter then the likelihood of a ratter is very high. Combine that with the awful pattern we are in for the rest of Novie and the fact this will be a front loaded winter...there isn’t much room for a sustained winter, is there? 

Sure, we will have our chances but ‘close the shades’ seems like the dominate phrase this season. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When you’re saying we have a 4 week window of real winter then the likelihood of a ratter is very high. Combine that with the awful pattern we are in for the rest of Novie and the fact this will be a front loaded winter...there isn’t much room for a sustained winter, is there? 

Sure, we will have our chances but ‘close the shades’ seems like the dominate phrase this season. 

My only point is that its early, so I would wait for it to play out a bit more before bridge jumping. There is no denying that rat potential is above climo this year...I could easily see it playing out like that.

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