Winter 2020-2021

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you guys nowhere to find the ECMW ENSO plumes?

All I can find is SIPS, and it was discontinued last year.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202010010000&nino_area=NINO3-4

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202010010000&nino_area=NINO3-4

 

Thank you.

I think have above average confidence this season...cleared up any ambivalence today.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This was actually a nice storm in January 2008....infamous for the huge bust in NYC (almost all rain there when they had a warning out for like 5-8"). I think BOS had about 7-8" and I had just under 10". It was my largest storm of the season....barely (12/16/07, 12/13/07, and 2/22/08 were like all an inch less)

That storm dumped 10" of fluff in 4.5 hours at Augusta and was still <1/4 mile visibility when I had to leave - wife got rear-ended a couple miles from home and rode the ambulance to the hospital to make sure the clips in her sternum (double bypass the previous Oct.)  White-out for the 1st 10 miles but down to SN after that.  Had 8" at home, only 5" at Farmington - for hours, radar had a yellow "banana" IZG-LEW-AUG-Belfast and Franklin County was just north of the bright colors.  GYX had 15" and AUG probably about the same.

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh boy . Will’s rule about bad November’s . Not surprising though

 

[weathafella]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh boy . Will’s rule about bad November’s . Not surprising though

 

I think Will’s rule refers to December ninas.

[weathafella]

Kevin, you conveniently left the follow up off of your post.

 

[OSUmetstud]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh boy . Will’s rule about bad November’s . Not surprising though

 

Sounds like Judah needs help. 

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh boy . Will’s rule about bad November’s . Not surprising though

 

I don't know what his rule is, but I know here in the Great Lakes a lot of superstitious weenies do not like wintry November's because lately cold, snowy November's have seguayed into mild December's. If you look at the long term data it's a mixed bag but there's no denying the recent trends that "what happens in November the Winter remember" could not be further from the truth.

[ORH_wxman]

You don’t want the AK pig in mid to late November. It’s ok if it’s in the first half of month and transient. 

If that GEFS pattern is what we have through late month, then it’s very worrisome. Judah is right though that the EPS isn’t all that bad. It actually has a -WPO pattern. 

[powderfreak]

Let's just get one of these storms and be done with winter, in a world-ending 24 hour period. 

Nothing like a routine 79-85" in the afternoon, then another 91-97" overnight.

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Let's just get one of these storms and be done with winter, in a world-ending 24 hour period. 

Nothing like a routine 79-85" in the afternoon, then another 91-97" overnight.

Where the hell is that? Maybe the Chugash mountains or something in Alaska?

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Where the hell is that? Maybe the Chugash mountains or something in Alaska?

It's hard to get anything past you, nice guess man.  For me the tell-tale sign is the south winds. 

Where else are you going to get that moisture at those temps on a south wind?  It was west of Valdez, about half way to Anchorage.  Just crushed on SE to S flow.  That SE flow probably converges and flows into that horseshoe shaped bay, slamming into huge mountains on the coast.  What a spot, lol.

[roardog]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Let's just get one of these storms and be done with winter, in a world-ending 24 hour period. 

Nothing like a routine 79-85" in the afternoon, then another 91-97" overnight.

The snow COULD be heavy at times? With 91-97 inches in one night, I would say it would have to be heavy all night. 

[PhineasC]

40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Let's just get one of these storms and be done with winter, in a world-ending 24 hour period. 

Nothing like a routine 79-85" in the afternoon, then another 91-97" overnight.

"Oh dear, gonna be a little bit of snow tonight, hon. Better bring in the chickens and put a spot of wax on the shovel ya know."

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

The snow COULD be heavy at times? With 91-97 inches in one night, I would say it would have to be heavy all night. 

That kind of snow would have to be heavy enough to choke you if you try to breathe outside.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

That kind of snow would have to be heavy enough to choke you if you try to breathe outside.

Average of 7-8" per hour for at least 12 hours... that's something we'll never comprehend.  And even though the temps are probably decent ratios, it's maritime snow so it's probably still pumping 6" water every 12 hours.  Nothing like 0.50+" in the tipper per hour for at least 18 hours straight, at temps in the teens.

[CoastalWx]

Man snow?

[Hazey]

What’s the seasonal snowfall accumulation for that place? Must be in the thousands of inches if they can grab 2 hundos in like 24 hours.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

What’s the seasonal snowfall accumulation for that place? Must be in the thousands of inches if they can grab 2 hundos in like 24 hours.


#NovaScotiaStrong

800" I think. But that's just an average. I'm sure the totally unvisited spots get into 5 digits easily. No one around to even attempt to measure.

[ORH_wxman]

Alyeska ski area averages like 700” but they aren’t nearly in the highest spot or probably even the best spot. I’d guess there’s probably locations there that average well over 1000 inches per year but there’s nobody to record it. You’d probably die from avalanches being near those spots, lol. 

[Hazey]

So that forecast was for the peaks in yeti country? Impressive amounts none the less.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh boy . Will’s rule about bad November’s . Not surprising though

 

Vortex looks like it wants to setup shop over NW Canada into AK. Notsonice. 

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, Hazey said:

So that forecast was for the peaks in yeti country? Impressive amounts none the less.


#NovaScotiaStrong

Yeah, like Phin and Will said, the recorded areas get 700-800”, but the heli-ski operations have estimated 1,000+”.  Definitely possible to get those type of forecasts.  Not going to happen often but those are the big time storms up there.  Lots of moisture.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

A month vaca in AK would be sick. Ski 3 times a week and just hang with nature, see the northern lights...feel like you’re in outer space. Bucket list.

[Typhoon Tip]

Meanwhile the Para G has a blue bomb into the Berks and central NE ..

Models in general I’ve been flirting with something in that timeframe sometimes more efficient than other times in phasing other times keeping the wave spacing separate and shear it out… The flow being fast does favor shear but there is enough cold air around and with that rising PNA like that there’s kind of a pseudo-Archimbault look 

[SnowGoose69]

14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You don’t want the AK pig in mid to late November. It’s ok if it’s in the first half of month and transient. 

If that GEFS pattern is what we have through late month, then it’s very worrisome. Judah is right though that the EPS isn’t all that bad. It actually has a -WPO pattern. 

 

There has definitely been several cases where its been present late November into December and flipped.  1993 was one I know of.  I think it was there more or less all of November into mid December.

[Torch Tiger]

15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh boy . Will’s rule about bad November’s . Not surprising though

 

Ugly? Looks great

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

There has definitely been several cases where its been present late November into December and flipped.  1993 was one I know of.  I think it was there more or less all of November into mid December.

There’s always exceptions to the rule but you’d rather not have one. 

Btw i wouldn’t classify Nov 1993 as a pig month. Def huge +AO but it had ridging approaching the EPO region. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Late autumn / .. early winter ‘93 was a comedy of greedy grinch going to far ..

It was as tho it couldn’t resist stealing that much more with that +NAO it torpedoed it’s intent to ruin winter.  NAO positive anomaly grew so extraordinary this establish a strong NW static conveyor N of the Lakes region that was confluence with the Pac mean jet ... 

oops ... grinch failure. although “grinch” mean specifically as it all relates to Christmas .. but it think the first in the series of winter storm was between then and NYears.  
 

fast flows transporting angular WAA up and over said confluence-related llv cold ftw!  It’s way we had so many very tall sleet column type deals. I remember one storm the (then) ETA FOUS was < 0C at all there sigma levels 800, 900, and 980 mb in an inch of sleet with 4-6” of OES from growth underneath ... 

That was the first winner I had ever experienced where storms were repetitive almost like clockwork ... every three or four days we were under another winter storm watch ... sometimes watch’s would go up when the storm in play wasn’t even finished.  
 

You know that’s kind of a subtle sort of unnoticed thing and that we’ve had a lot of winters with that repetitive storm behavior.  since then .. it’s almost like that was the flip of a different paradigm as far as that behavior 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Late autumn / .. early winter ‘93 was a comedy of greedy grinch going to far ..

It was as tho it couldn’t resist stealing that much more with that +NAO it torpedoed it’s intent to ruin winter.  NAO positive anomaly grew so extraordinary this establish a strong NW static conveyor N of the Lakes region that was confluence with the Pac mean jet ... 

oops ... grinch failure. although “grinch” mean specifically as it all relates to Christmas .. but it think the first in the series of winter storm was between then and NYears.  
 

fast flows transporting angular WAA up and over said confluence-related llv cold ftw!  It’s way we had so many very tall sleet column type deals. I remember one storm the (then) ETA FOUS was < 0C at all there sigma levels 800, 900, and 980 mb in an inch of sleet with 4-6” of OES from growth underneath ... 

That was the first winner I had ever experienced where storms were repetitive almost like clockwork ... every three or four days we were under another winter storm watch ... sometimes watch’s would go up when the storm in play wasn’t even finished.  
 

You know that’s kind of a subtle sort of unnoticed thing and that we’ve had a lot of winters with that repetitive storm behavior.  since then .. it’s almost like that was the flip of a different paradigm as far as that behavior 

There was actually a paper published on the January ‘94 storm that dropped the OES with sleet. It was back when Weymouth Naval Air Station still existed with obs (code KNZW I recall)...they were reporting heavy snow with sleet and under quarter mile vis. Almost the snow production was between 975-875 millibars with a max cold layer around -13C...with a thin elevated warm layer around 750mb. Wish I could find the paper.

Perfect heavy snow dendrites from OES while the synoptic stuff was producing pingers. Hilarious.